
Episodes
How Hedge Funds Play the Prediction Market Crackdown
As regulators and banks tighten scrutiny of prediction markets, hedge funds are recalibrating how they use these platforms for macro signals and hedging. In this episode, Lucas and Luna unpack the August 2026 headlines, the VIX's drop to 14.25, and the shift from retail speculation to institutional utility. They explore how funds are now treating prediction market odds as a complement to traditional polling and pricing, and what the new compliance burden means for alpha. With the Russell 2000…
How Pershing Square Bought Netflix Again
Bill Ackman's Pershing Square just took a new stake in Netflix, four years after a famous exit. In this episode, Lucas and Luna unpack what the billionaire investor sees in the streaming giant now — and why his timing, this time, looks different. They dig into the company's ad-tier growth, the shift toward profitability over subscriber counts, and how the market's record-high profit margins are feeding a broader rally. With the S&P 500 at 7,799 and the VIX at 14.63, they ask whether Ackman's…
How Hedge Funds Trade Prediction Markets
Prediction markets used to be a niche curiosity. Now they're a multi-billion-dollar arena where hedge funds are placing real bets on elections, Fed decisions, and even the path of AI regulation. In this episode, Lucas and Luna unpack how funds are using platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket to trade event risk, why the New York City Council's probe into marketing tactics matters, and what the VIX at 14.55 says about complacency versus conviction. They drill into one specific strategy — trading…
How Hedge Funds Are Trading the AI Compute Futures Launch
On this episode of The Hedge Fund Podcast, Lucas and Luna dig into the biggest story in markets this week: the CME's new AI compute futures. With the S&P hovering near all-time highs and the VIX dropping to 15.28, they explore what these contracts mean for hedge funds, from power providers to hyperscalers. They break down the mechanics of the contracts, why they matter for managing risk in AI infrastructure, and how funds are positioning ahead of the first trades. Lucas shares a concrete…
Hedge Funds Are Trading the VIX Drop as a Complacency Signal
With the VIX down more than six percent over the past five sessions to just over fifteen, Lucas and Luna dig into what the options market is really saying. They unpack the mechanics of the VIX, the VVIX, and why a complacent volatility surface can be a contrarian warning. The episode drills into the August rally, the Fed's rate path, and how hedge funds are positioning for a potential volatility shock. Expect concrete numbers, a look at the recent jobs miss, and a debate about whether low…
How Hedge Funds Are Pricing the July Jobs Miss
This episode drills into the hedge fund reaction to the surprising July jobs miss and the sharp drop in Fed rate hike odds. We explore how funds are recalibrating their August positioning: trimming crowded growth trades, rotating into quality value, and using the recent VIX dip as a contrarian signal. With the S&P 500 near record highs and the VIX at 14.90, the conversation unpacks what a potential September Fed pause could mean for bond proxies and dividend stocks. We also look at how a small…
How Hedge Funds Use ETF Flows to Trade Rate Uncertainty
This episode of The Hedge Fund Podcast digs into a less-noticed signal in the current rate-hike drama: ETF flows. With the Fed funds rate parked at 3.63 percent and a soft July jobs report pulling September hike odds down, Lucas and Luna explore how hedge funds are reading the daily inflows into bond and equity ETFs as a real-time gauge of institutional conviction. They break down the mechanics — how funds use ETF creation and redemption data to spot crowded trades, fade retail exuberance, and…
How Hedge Funds Are Trading the Copper Record High
Copper just hit an all-time high, and hedge funds are reading it as more than a commodity story. In this episode, Lucas and Luna break down what the red metal's record rally signals about the global economy, from AI-driven electricity demand to the July jobs miss that's reshaping Fed expectations. They dig into the mechanics: why copper is called Dr. Copper, how macro funds position around supply constraints and inventory data, and why the metal's move might be telling us something the equity…
Why Copper's Record High Is a Macro Signal
Copper hit an all-time high on August 6, 2026, and hedge funds are reading it as a macro signal that cuts across inflation, AI data-center demand, and the rate cycle. In this episode, Lucas and Luna dig into what the red metal's move means for portfolios: why copper often leads the business cycle, how it's become a barometer for AI infrastructure spending, and the tricky part—copper's rally can signal both growth and sticky inflation. They discuss how macro funds are positioning, what the…
How the VIX Drop Signals Complacency Before a Rate Hike
As markets rally into August, the VIX has dropped to 15.8 even as Fed Governor Cook signals she's 'prepared to act' on a rate hike. Lucas and Luna explore what this divergence means for hedge funds positioning into the next FOMC. They discuss how the recent Situational Awareness unwind shook leveraged markets, why the VIX at this level has historically been a fragile setup, and how some funds are using options structures to cheaply hedge the tail risk of a surprise hike. With the S&P 500 up…
How Michael Burry Is Betting Against the August Rally
The S&P 500 just hit 7,737, and the VIX is down to 16. But on August 4, 2026, Michael Burry — the investor from The Big Short — said we're 'near a major top, and possible a 1987-type fall.' In this episode, Lucas and Luna break down what Burry is actually doing: the short positions he's disclosed, the warning signs in the market's recent 5-day surge, and how hedge funds are positioning for a possible crash versus a continued melt-up. They compare Burry's call to his 2021 meme-stock shorts, look…
How a Small Fund Beat the Market With a Bayesian Edge
In this episode, Lucas and Luna break down the quiet success of a niche hedge fund that used Bayesian probability to find mispriced catastrophe bonds. They explore how the fund's edge emerged from a rare data set — regional climate and insurance claims since 2015 — and why the strategy sidesteps the crowded trades dominating 2026 markets. With the S&P 500 up 2.3 percent over five days and the VIX dropping to 15.86, they ask whether this kind of specialized risk-taking is the real alpha source…
The Hedge Fund Replication Puzzle
In this episode of The Hedge Fund Podcast, Lucas and Luna unpack the growing trend of hedge fund replication strategies. As the S&P 500 hits fresh highs near 7,490 and the VIX drops 14 percent in a week, investors are questioning whether they need to pay 2-and-20 fees for returns that look increasingly like a simple index fund. They dive into a specific case: a mid-sized pension plan that shifted half its hedge fund allocation into a rules-based replication ETF, saving 150 basis points in fees…
How Hedge Funds Are Navigating the AI IPO Rush
The AI IPO wave is reshaping the hedge fund playbook. From Databricks' massive debut to SpaceX's market pop, funds are scrambling to get pre-IPO access and manage post-listing volatility. In this episode, Lucas and Luna dive into the strategies behind the scenes: how Goldman's traders are capitalizing on the frenzy, why some funds are betting on AI trading agents, and what the recent rotation from growth to value means for your portfolio. With the S&P 500 hovering near record highs and the VIX…
How Hedge Funds Are Trading the US-China Humanoid Robot Ban
On July 30, 2026, China threatened retaliation against a U.S. ban on humanoid robot exports, escalating the AI trade war. Hedge funds are already positioning: shorting Chinese robotics suppliers like Ubtech and DJI, going long U.S. defense primes such as Lockheed Martin, and buying tail hedges in the VIX despite the S&P 500 hitting new highs above 7,400. Lucas and Luna break down three concrete trades hedge funds are using to navigate this geopolitical flashpoint, from options strategies on the…
Hedge Funds Navigate the Great July Rotation from Growth to Value
In this episode, Lucas and Luna break down the dramatic market rotation unfolding in late July 2026. With the NASDAQ dropping 2.8% in five days while the Dow barely budges, hedge funds are rapidly shifting from high-flying AI stocks into value and cyclical sectors. They analyze prime brokerage data showing three consecutive weeks of net tech selling, and explain how fund managers are using put spreads on the QQQ and call options on the DIA to express the trade. The conversation also covers the…
How Hedge Funds Read the Bond Market's Message to Warsh
This week's Fed meeting left rates unchanged, but the bond market is screaming that inflation still needs attention. Jeffrey Gundlach's latest warning—that Treasuries are telling Chair Warsh to act—has hedge funds scrambling to position. We break down the specific trades: from put options on long-dated Treasury futures to TIPS breakeven swaps, and what the VIX-VVIX divergence says about tail risk. With the S&P down and volatility spiking, macro funds are looking at the yield curve's signal…
How Hedge Funds Are Betting on AI Trading Agents
In this episode, Lucas and Luna dive into the rapid rise of AI trading agents — startups and brokers building autonomous systems that trade 24/7. They examine how hedge funds are positioning around this shift: some investing in AI infrastructure, others shorting traditional financial firms like Visa after its announcement of 7% workforce cuts due to AI reshaping work. Lucas breaks down specific trades using options and the rise in the VVIX, while Luna questions whether the disruption is…
How Hedge Funds Are Trading the AI Trading Agent Boom
The VIX is up 9% in five days, but is that anxiety about AI trading agents? This episode explores how hedge funds are navigating the rise of autonomous algorithmic agents that trade 24/7. From Citadel building their own in-house AI execution agents to quant funds shorting overvalued startup platforms, we break down the trades. Lucas and Luna also discuss whether AI agents could lower or spike volatility, and how funds are using VIX calls as tail hedges. Plus, why one hedge fund is betting on…
Hedge Funds Trade the AI Doubt After Eisman Selloff
Steve Eisman, the 'Big Short' investor, recently sold a key tech stock and expressed doubts about AI's rally. In this episode, Lucas and Luna unpack how hedge funds are reacting in late July 2026. They dive into the Nasdaq's 3.5 percent drop over five days, the VIX spike to 19.13, and the rotation signal from the Dow's flat performance. We explore specific strategies: buying put spreads on the Nasdaq-100, shifting assets from AI leaders to small caps and value sectors, and using options to…
How Hedge Funds Are Using CME Single Stock Futures for Tactical Rotation
This episode dives into the CME's launch of single stock futures on July 27, 2026, enabling 23-hour trading on names like SpaceX and Micron. With the NASDAQ down 3.5% in five days and Steve Eisman of 'Big Short' fame selling a key AI stock, hedge funds are using these new instruments for tactical rotation—shorting overvalued tech and gaining exposure to private market giants. Lucas and Luna break down a specific trade: a macro hedge fund using SpaceX single stock futures to bet on a post-IPO…
How Hedge Funds Are Playing the Moody's AI Credit Warning
Moody's just warned that the AI spending spree by Amazon, Meta, and Alphabet threatens their investment-grade credit ratings. Hedge funds are piling into credit default swaps, shorting bonds, and running basis trades to profit from the widening spreads. Lucas and Luna break down the mechanics of these trades, the role of rising oil and Fed rate hike odds, and why the VIX uptick isn't scaring the options market. If you're looking for a concrete hedge fund play on the AI capex backlash, this…
How Hedge Funds Trade the AI Capex Credit-Equity Split
Moody's just warned that Amazon, Meta, and Alphabet's AI spending binge could threaten their credit ratings. Hedge funds are now piling into a trade that shorts the bonds of these hyperscalers while going long their stocks, betting the equity market is ignoring a looming downgrade cycle. Lucas and Luna break down the mechanics of the divergence trade, why the VIX at 18.5 and VVIX below 101 suggest complacency, and what a sudden rate hike could mean for the credit-equity gap. Plus, the specific…
How Hedge Funds Are Betting on a July Rate Hike
With oil prices surging and the odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike crossing 40 percent, hedge funds are positioning in the derivatives market for a hawkish surprise. This episode drills into the specific trades: options on fed funds futures, eurodollar strips, and the VIX term structure. Lucas and Luna walk through the numbers, including the current VIX at 18.58 and the flat Fed funds rate at 3.63 percent, and explain why some funds are betting the Fed moves as soon as next week. They also…
Hedge Funds Are Trading the AI Capex Credit Risk
Episode 131 of The Hedge Fund Podcast with Fexingo dives into a fresh hedge fund trade: shorting the credit of Big Tech as Moody's warns that 'unprecedented' AI spending could threaten their credit quality. Lucas and Luna explore how funds are buying CDS on Amazon, Meta, and Alphabet, betting that bond markets have become too complacent about the scale of AI capex — projected to exceed $150 billion collectively this year. They connect the trade to the broader macro environment, with the VIX…
How Hedge Funds Are Trading the Oil Shock Rate Hike Cycle
With oil pushing past $100 a barrel and the Fed rate hike odds surging, Lucas and Luna break down how hedge funds are positioning for a macro regime shift. They examine the crude options flow that flipped from defensive puts to bullish call spreads, the bond market's repricing of a September hike, and why event-driven funds are watching oil-service stocks rather than the majors. Specific trades discussed include the WTI December $95/$110 call spread, the short two-year Treasury position via…
How Hedge Funds Are Trading the War-Energy Cycle in July 2026
With oil crossing $100 and odds of a Fed rate hike surging, Lucas and Luna drill into how hedge funds are positioning around the war-energy feedback loop. They examine the VIX at 18.7, the VVIX at 102, and the growing disconnect between equity markets and geopolitical risk. The episode focuses on two specific trades: long crude futures and short consumer discretionary ETFs, backed by real positioning data from CFTC commitments of traders reports. Lucas breaks down why the 'shortsighted market'…
How Hedge Funds Are Using Satellite Imagery for Supply Chain Alpha
Episode 128 of The Hedge Fund Podcast with Fexingo. Lucas and Luna explore how hedge funds are leveraging satellite imagery to gain an edge in supply chain analysis. They discuss the growing availability of high-resolution data, the role of AI in processing images, and a specific case: using satellite views of car dealership lots to gauge auto sales before official numbers are released. With the S&P 500 at 7,499 and the VIX at 18.97, the hosts consider how this alternative data fits into the…
How Hedge Funds Are Mining Earnings Call Transcripts
Lucas and Luna explore how systematic hedge funds are using natural language processing on earnings call transcripts to generate trades. They dive into the specific example of a mid-cap industrial company, where a fund's NLP model detected a shift in management's language around inventory levels before the sell-side analysts caught on. Lucas explains the mechanics: sentiment scoring, topic clustering, and the 'change-point detection' that flags subtle deviations from past scripted remarks. They…
How Hedge Funds Are Shorting SpaceX After the IPO Pop
SpaceX's IPO surged 70% on day one, but now hedge funds have piled into short positions totaling 32% of float. Lucas and Luna break down the short thesis: valuation stretching beyond fundamentals, Elon Musk's war with bears, and what the VIX and VVIX data says about hedging demand. They also explore how prediction markets like Kalshi are becoming a new tool for hedge funds to gauge sentiment. If you've ever wondered how professional short sellers think about a high-profile name like SpaceX…
How Hedge Funds Are Trading the Private Markets Platform Boom
Goldman Sachs just launched a private markets platform for wealthy individuals chasing pre-IPO deals like SpaceX. Lucas and Luna break down how hedge funds are adapting — some partnering with banks, others shorting the hype. With SpaceX short interest at 32% of float and the VIX up 8.8% this week, they explore the structural shift in alternative investing and what it means for retail access to private equity. #GoldmanSachs #PrivateMarkets #SpaceX #HedgeFunds #AlternativeInvestments #PreIPO…
How Hedge Funds Are Trading the Jamie Dimon Warning Signal
Episode 124 of The Hedge Fund Podcast. Lucas and Luna break down Jamie Dimon's July 20 warning that markets underestimate risk, and why he said he wouldn't buy stocks or Treasurys at current prices. They examine how hedge funds are interpreting the signal—through the VIX spike to 17.55, the VVIX at 102.82, and the flat Fed funds rate at 3.63 percent. The conversation covers the Dimon put, tail-risk hedging flows, and whether the JPMorgan CEO's caution is a contrarian indicator or a genuine…
How Hedge Funds Are Trading the China Car Market Collapse
In this episode of The Hedge Fund Podcast, Lucas and Luna explore how hedge funds are positioning for the dramatic downturn in China's auto industry. With sales plunging 20% year-over-year in July 2026 and the market on track for its worst year since 2021, funds are split between shorting legacy automakers and going long on EV exporters and battery supply chains. Lucas breaks down the specific plays: shorting joint-venture producers like SAIC-GM, going long on BYD and CATL, and arbitraging the…
How Hedge Funds Trade the Prediction Market Boom
Prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket are exploding — Kalshi added 3 million users in a week, fueled by the World Cup. Hedge funds are moving in, using these platforms to gauge sentiment on everything from Fed decisions to commodity prices. Lucas and Luna break down how a small macro fund is using Kalshi's Fed rate contracts as a leading indicator for Treasury positioning, and why some funds see prediction markets as a superior alternative to traditional polling or expert surveys. They…
How Hedge Funds Are Trading the VVIX-VIX Divergence in July 2026
In this episode, Lucas and Luna dissect the widening gap between the VIX and VVIX in mid-July 2026, with the VIX at 18.77 and VVIX at 104.87. They explain what this divergence signals about tail-risk hedging, how multi-strategy funds are positioning in options and volatility swaps, and why the VVIX remains elevated even as the VIX retreats. Drawing on recent market data — including the S&P 500 dropping 0.8% over five days — they explore whether this is a signal of systemic anxiety or just a…
How Hedge Funds Are Trading the WarshGPT Communication Shift
In this episode, Lucas and Luna explore how hedge funds are adapting to the Fed's new era of communication, dubbed 'WarshGPT.' With VIX climbing 9.4% in the past five days and the S&P 500 slipping 0.8%, funds are parsing not just rate decisions but the language itself. They dissect how quant funds are using NLP to trade Fedspeak volatility, discretionary managers are adjusting positioning ahead of Dallas Fed President Logan's hawkish comments, and why the VVIX-VIX spread signals uncertainty…
How Hedge Funds Are Trading the Volatility Gap Between VIX and VVIX
The VIX is at 18.77, up 9.4% in five days. The VVIX — the volatility of the VIX — has surged 10% to 104.87, a level historically associated with tail-risk hedging demand. On this episode of The Hedge Fund Podcast, Lucas and Luna unpack how sophisticated macro funds are exploiting the divergence between these two measures. They walk through a specific trade: selling VIX futures against buying VVIX options, a structure that profits when the market expects a spike in volatility but remains calm in…
How Hedge Funds Are Shorting India IPO Frenzy
Lucas and Luna unpack the mechanics behind hedge funds shorting Indian IPOs, using the recent $31 billion subscription frenzy as a case study. With the VIX climbing to 18.77 and the VVIX surging 10%, they explore how funds are betting on post-listing drops, regulatory risks, and the disconnect between institutional demand and retail euphoria. They dive into the specific strategies — pairing short IPO positions with long index ETFs, using total return swaps, and the role of local vs. global…
How Hedge Funds Are Shorting SpaceX After the IPO Pop
SpaceX shares have fallen below their IPO price, and short sellers are piling in. Lucas and Luna examine the post-IPO dynamics, institutional lockup expirations, and what the elevated VVIX tells us about tail-risk hedging in the space sector. They discuss how hedge funds are positioning for further downside, the role of borrow fees in constraining short interest, and why this pattern echoes other hyped space and tech IPOs. Plus, a candid moment about how listener support keeps the show ad-free.…
How Hedge Funds Are Trading the India IPO Frenzy
In this episode, Lucas and Luna dive into the record-breaking $31 billion IPO from India that launched this week. They explore how global hedge funds are piling into Indian equity offerings, what the VIX and VVIX divergence says about tail-risk hedging, and why Dallas Fed President Logan's hawkish comments are creating a tactical opportunity for event-driven funds. Lucas breaks down the mechanics of the IPO frenzy—using a specific example of institutional over-subscription multiples—and Luna…
How Hedge Funds Are Trading the VVIX Divergence
The VIX is at 16.73, but the VVIX — the volatility of the VIX — has surged 11.5% in the same five-day period. Lucas and Luna dig into what this divergence means for hedge fund positioning. They focus on the 'volatility risk premium' trade, which is typically a steady source of returns, but the VVIX spike suggests the market is pricing in a higher chance of a tail event. The hosts discuss how funds are adjusting their strategies: reducing short vega exposure, buying VIX call spreads, and using…
How Hedge Funds Are Trading Warren Buffett's Gambling Comment
Warren Buffett recently said 'It's tough to find values when everybody is preferring gambling.' In this episode, Lucas and Luna unpack what that phrase means for hedge fund strategies in mid-2026. They explore how the Oracle of Omaha's observation about market behavior—not just valuation—has triggered a shift in how some multi-manager platforms and macro funds allocate risk. They tie it to real data: the VIX at 15.84, up 5.4% in five days, and the VVIX at 91.85, signaling that options dealers…
How Hedge Funds Are Trading the AI IPO Wave
Lucas and Luna break down how hedge funds are positioning for the coming wave of AI mega-IPOs, using Anthropic's preparations as the central case study. They discuss the shift from secondary-market bets to direct IPO allocations, how funds are adjusting their portfolio construction to accommodate a potential Anthropic listing, and what the VIX at 15.67 tells us about complacency. Lucas also explains the 'anchor allocation' strategy some funds are using to secure meaningful positions, and why…
How Hedge Funds Are Trading the AI Revenue Diversion in Banking
Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan just became unlikely AI winners as the boom diverts spending from tech hardware to financial services. On this episode of The Hedge Fund Podcast, Lucas and Luna break down the specific trade: how hedge funds are shorting semiconductor ETFs and going long bank stocks to capture the rotation. They walk through the $1.2 trillion in AI-driven banking revenue projected by 2028, the valuation disconnect in big bank stocks (Goldman at 10x forward earnings vs. Nvidia at 35x)…
How Hedge Funds Are Tracking AI Spending via Cement Orders
Episode 111 of The Hedge Fund Podcast. Lucas and Luna explore how sophisticated hedge funds are using an unexpected proxy to track the real-world pace of AI infrastructure spending: bulk cement orders. With the S&P 500 at 7,544 and the VIX subdued at 16.50, markets are pricing in smooth growth, but fund managers are skeptical. They're cross-referencing satellite imagery of concrete truck activity at data-center sites with public procurement records from counties in Virginia, Iowa, and Arizona.…
How Hedge Funds Are Trading the SpaceX IPO Frenzy
On this episode of The Hedge Fund Podcast, Lucas and Luna break down the unique hedge fund strategies surrounding the SpaceX IPO, expected to be one of the largest in history. With bankers pricing the offering at a potential $350 billion valuation, hedge funds are jockeying for allocation through secondary markets and SPVs, while also trading pre-IPO swaps and total return swaps to gain synthetic exposure. The hosts discuss how a July rate hike from the Fed could impact the IPO window, and why…
How Hedge Funds Are Trading the Volatility Risk Premium in 2026
Episode 109 of The Hedge Fund Podcast explores how hedge funds are currently trading the volatility risk premium. With the VIX at 17.16 and rising 6.4% over the past five days, and the VVIX (volatility of volatility) at 95.28, the episode dives into strategies like shorting VIX futures, put writing on the S&P 500, and using VIX call spreads to hedge tail risk. Lucas and Luna discuss how these strategies generate consistent income from market complacency, but also the risks of a volatility…
How Hedge Funds Are Trading the ETF Liquidity Mismatch
Lucas and Luna examine a growing concern in the ETF market: the liquidity mismatch between fast-trading ETFs and their underlying illiquid assets. They anchor the discussion on the recent spike in the VIX to 16.14 and the VVIX at 87.28, which has hedge funds rethinking their ETF arbitrage strategies. Lucas breaks down how one multi-strategy fund, Citadel, has reportedly been using options on bond ETFs to hedge liquidity gaps, while Luna highlights a specific trade: shorting the HYG high-yield…
How Hedge Funds Are Trading the Volatility Risk Premium in 2026
In this episode of The Hedge Fund Podcast, Lucas and Luna dive into the volatility risk premium — the gap between implied and realized volatility that funds systematically harvest. With the VIX hovering at 15 and the VVIX at 87, the spread between equity and equity-derivatives volatility is wider than historical averages. Lucas explains how multi-strat funds like Citadel and DE Shaw use options-based strategies to capture this premium, why the strategy has become more crowded since 2023, and…
How Hedge Funds Parse Fed Task Force Signals for Alpha
In this episode of The Hedge Fund Podcast, Lucas and Luna dive into a specific niche of political-intelligence trading: parsing the composition of Kevin Warsh's new Federal Reserve task forces. With the S&P 500 at 7,575 and the VIX near 15, the market is pricing in a smooth policy transition under the new Fed chair. But hedge funds are looking past the headlines—they're analyzing the ideological tilt of task-force members like Marc Andreessen and Doug McMillon to anticipate rate-path shifts.…
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