Episodes
How Duration Risk Is Rewiring Fixed Income
With the ten-year Treasury yield climbing to 4.79 percent and the thirty-year hitting 5.27 percent, fixed income investors are facing a sharp rise in duration risk. Lucas and Luna break down why long-duration bonds are selling off harder than short-term bills, how the 2-10 spread staying flat at 0.40 percent signals a unique market dynamic, and what this means for corporate credit spreads in LQD and high-yield HYG. We explore the mechanics of convexity, the impact of foreign buyer behavior on…
How Credit Spreads Are Rewiring Corporate Bond Portfolios
With the ten-year Treasury yield holding near 4.75 percent and corporate credit spreads tightening despite a hawkish Fed Governor, investors are facing a new reality in fixed income. Lucas and Luna dissect why high-grade corporate bonds are outperforming Treasuries on a risk-adjusted basis this September 2026. They break down the mechanics of investment-grade versus high-yield spread compression, explaining how companies locked in low rates years ago are now trading at premiums that leave…
How the 30-Year Yield at 5.22 Is Reshaping Pension Buyout Strategies
The 30-year Treasury yield has climbed to 5.22 percent, and that number is quietly rewriting the math for corporate pension funds. In this episode, Lucas and Luna dig into how higher long-duration yields are shifting the economics of pension risk transfers — the deals where insurers take on a company's pension liabilities. With corporate bond yields also elevated, insurers are finding attractive returns to back those promises, and more employers are choosing to offload their pension burdens.…
Why the 30-Year Yield at 5.19 Is Luring Foreign Buyers
Foreign investors are piling into US long bonds as the 30-year Treasury yield hovers near 5.2 percent. In this episode, Lucas and Luna break down the mechanics of foreign buying — from currency hedging to the allure of dollar-denominated yields — and explain why two seemingly mundane data points (the yield spread and the dollar's steadiness) are quietly shaping cross-border capital flows. They also touch on a recent court ruling on prediction markets and what it means for bond market sentiment.…
How the 30-Year Yield at 5.19 Is Reshaping Bond Ladders
In this episode of The Bond Investing Podcast, Lucas and Luna dive into a surprising shift in the bond market: the 30-year Treasury yield has climbed to 5.19 percent while the 10-year sits at 4.67, pushing the 10-30 spread to its widest in years. They explore how this steepening long end is forcing investors to rethink classic bond laddering strategies. Using real data from late August 2026, they discuss why the long bond is now offering a compelling yield premium, how pension funds and…
Why the 2-10 Spread Is Compressing Before the Fed Decision
With the September Fed decision now a coin flip, Lucas and Luna dig into the latest curve dynamics: the 2-year yield climbing to 4.20 percent while the 10-year sits at 4.67, flattening the spread to just 39 basis points. They explore what that compression signals about market expectations, how it's reshaping bond ladder strategies for income investors, and why the front end is suddenly the most interesting part of the curve. Along the way, they touch on the recent jump in agricultural…
How the 30-Year Yield at 5.18 Is Reshaping Pension Strategies
On this episode of The Bond Investing Podcast, Lucas and Luna dig into the 30-year Treasury yield's climb to 5.18 percent and what it means for corporate pension plans. With the yield curve steepening and the 10-year at 4.66, plan sponsors are facing a critical decision: lock in higher long-term rates now or wait for even better levels. Lucas explains how this environment is driving a surge in liability-driven investing, with pension funds extending duration to match their obligations. Luna…
How the Fed Pause Is Quietly Compressing the Front End
The bond market has been fixated on the long end, but the real story this summer is the front end. With the Fed on hold since June, short-term yields are drifting lower and the 2-year Treasury has dropped from 4.24 to 4.17 in just a week. This episode unpacks what that compression means for money market funds, short-duration bond ETFs, and investors who've been parking cash in 5% yield vehicles. Lucas and Luna dig into the mechanics of the Fed's rate floor, the curve's recent moves, and why the…
The Steepening Curve Rewrites Bond Ladder Math
As the 10-year Treasury yield hovers near 4.64 percent and the 30-year sits at 5.23 percent, bond investors are rethinking the classic ladder. In this episode, Lucas and Luna dive into why the 10-30 curve has steepened to 50-plus basis points and what that means for the 'barbell vs. ladder' debate. They walk through a concrete example: a $100,000 bond ladder built today versus five years ago, showing how the new yield pickup changes the math on extension risk. They also explore why some…
How the 30-Year Yield Is Rewiring Bond Strategies
On this episode of The Bond Investing Podcast, Lucas and Luna dig into the 30-year Treasury yield's recent climb to 5.27 percent and what it means for everyday bond investors. They break down why the long end is moving independently of the Fed, how insurers and pension funds are adjusting, and whether building a ladder with long bonds makes sense now. With the 10-year at 4.74 and the 2-year at 4.24, the curve is steepening, but the 30-year is the real outlier. The hosts use the latest data to…
Why the Long Bond Is Now a Mortgage Driver
In this episode, Lucas and Luna explore how the 30-year Treasury yield at 5.23 percent is rippling through the mortgage market, reshaping refinancing decisions and the broader housing finance landscape. They break down the widening 10-year to 30-year spread, what it means for borrowers and lenders, and why the long end of the curve has become the new battleground for fixed-income investors. With the 30-year yield up from 5.19 percent just days ago, they examine the structural demand for…
Why Bond Ladders Are Getting Longer
As the yield curve steepens and the 30-year Treasury pushes above 5.2 percent, investors are rethinking one of fixed income's oldest strategies: the bond ladder. In this episode, Lucas and Luna explore how a longer ladder—extending maturities beyond the traditional five or ten years—can lock in higher yields without taking on excessive duration risk. With the 10-year at 4.69 percent and the 30-year at 5.23 percent, the spread between short and long maturities has widened to the point where…
How a Steeper 10-30 Curve Is Reshaping Bond Ladders
The Treasury curve is doing something unusual in August 2026: the spread between 10-year and 30-year yields is widening while the front end stays pinned. In this episode, Lucas and Luna unpack why the 10-30 segment is the new battleground for bond investors, what it means for laddered portfolios, and how institutional flows are driving the move. With the 30-year sitting at 5.23 percent and the 10-year at 4.69, the episode explains the mechanics behind the widening spread, the role of insurers…
Why the 2-10 Spread Hints at a Steeper Curve
On this episode of The Bond Investing Podcast, Lucas and Luna dive into the 10-year Treasury yield at 4.65 percent and the 2-year at 4.19 percent, widening the spread to 50 basis points. They unpack what this steepening signal means for bond investors, from mortgage refinancing to the front end's response to Fed policy. The conversation is grounded in the latest FOMC minutes that hint at a possible hike if inflation doesn't cool, and it explores why the curve's shape matters more than absolute…
How a Fed Hike Worry Is Reshaping the Front End
In this episode, Lucas and Luna dig into the surprising direction of the two-year Treasury yield in August 2026. While the thirty-year has grabbed headlines near five point three percent, the two-year has been quietly climbing to four point two percent, and the three-month sits at three point eight six percent. They discuss what the latest Fed minutes reveal about a possible rate hike if inflation doesn't cool, and why that has short-term bond investors rethinking their playbook. Luna shares…
Why the 30 Year Treasury Yield at 5.31 Is Reshaping the Mortgage Market
In this episode of The Bond Investing Podcast, Lucas and Luna unpack how the 30-year Treasury yield at 5.31 percent is reshaping the mortgage market. They drill into the refinancing freeze — with mortgage rates near 7 percent and refinance activity at its lowest in decades — and what that means for banks, bond investors, and the broader economy. They also explore how the 10-year yield at 4.72 percent and the steepening curve are affecting mortgage-backed securities, and why the Fed's balance…
Why the 30-Year Yield at 5.25 Is Reshaping Mortgage Refinancing
This episode of The Bond Investing Podcast drills into a quiet but profound shift: with the 30-year Treasury yield hovering at 5.25 percent, mortgage-backed securities are repricing in ways that ripple through the entire bond market. Lucas and Luna unpack how this yield level is reshaping refinancing incentives for homeowners, altering the prepayment assumptions that drive MBS valuations, and pushing yield-hungry investors into new corners of the fixed-income universe. They reference the latest…
Why the 30-Year Yield at 5.21 Percent Is Luring Foreign Buyers
The 30-year Treasury yield has climbed to 5.21 percent, and it's not just domestic pension funds and insurers taking notice. Foreign central banks, sovereign wealth funds, and international investors are increasingly drawn to long-dated U.S. debt. In this episode, Lucas and Luna explore the structural forces behind this global demand: the dollar's role as the world's reserve currency, the yield advantage over other developed-market bonds, and the hedging costs that can make or break the trade.…
Why Bond ETFs Trade at a Premium Now
In this episode of The Bond Investing Podcast with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna explore why bond ETFs have been trading at premiums to their net asset values, even as Treasury yields swing. They break down the mechanics of creation and redemption, using recent data like the 10-year yield at 4.63 percent and the 30-year at 5.21 percent, and discuss what persistent premiums signal about market stress and liquidity. The conversation touches on the August liquidity crunch and the role of authorized…
Why the Front End of the Curve Is Quietly Steepening
The yield curve has been steepening for months, but the action isn't where everyone is looking. While the 10-year Treasury sits at 4.63 percent and the 30-year hovers near 5.2 percent, the real story is the front end. The 2-year yield has dropped to 4.15 percent, and the spread between 2-year and 10-year Treasuries has widened to 51 basis points. In this episode, Lucas and Luna unpack what's driving this shift: the Fed's pause, cooling inflation expectations, and a market that's starting to…
Why Bond Liquidity Is Drying Up in a Higher Yield World
In this episode of The Bond Investing Podcast, Lucas and Luna explore a paradox: bond yields are at generational highs, yet liquidity in the corporate bond market is thinner than many investors realize. Using the latest data from August 2026, they break down how the Federal Reserve's balance sheet run-off, tighter bank regulations, and the rise of electronic trading have combined to reduce market-making capacity. They discuss the surprising role of ETFs in providing liquidity when individual…
Why Muni Bonds Are Finding New Buyers in a Higher Yield World
State and local government bonds are having a moment. With the 30-year Treasury yield at 5.24 percent and the 10-year at 4.70, tax-exempt municipals are suddenly competing with Treasuries and corporates for investor dollars. In this episode, Lucas and Luna dig into the mechanics: why muni yields have lagged the Treasury selloff, how the 2026 election cycle is shaping issuance, and what the flattening of the muni-to-Treasury ratio means for your portfolio. They also look at the growing role of…
Why Insurers Are Piling Into Private Credit
Life insurers are the quiet giants of the bond market, and right now they're shifting hundreds of billions of dollars out of public bonds and into private credit. On this episode, Lucas and Luna dig into the numbers behind the trend — from the 30-year Treasury at 5.25 percent to the yield pickup insurers can get on private assets — and why regulators are starting to pay attention. They talk about the role of the NAIC's new framework, how the 2026 credit cycle is testing the strategy, and what…
Why the 30-Year Yield at 5.2 Percent Is Reshaping Insurance Bond Portfolios
Lucas and Luna dig into the quiet reshuffle happening in insurance company bond portfolios now that the 30-year Treasury is yielding around 5.2 percent. They break down how this single level changes the math for insurers, who have to match long-dated liabilities, and why it's pulling them out of corporate credit and back into duration. They walk through a specific example: a life insurer with a 20-year liability, a 5.2 percent Treasury, and the decision to swap a 10-year corporate bond for a…
How Bond ETFs Handle Liquidity in a Volatile Market
In this episode of The Bond Investing Podcast, Lucas and Luna explore how bond ETFs have become the go-to tool for investors navigating today's volatile fixed-income markets. With the 10-year Treasury around 4.69 percent and the 30-year at 5.22, August has been rough for bonds, yet ETFs like TLT, LQD, and HYG have seen smoother trading than the underlying bonds. Lucas breaks down the mechanics of the creation-redemption process, explaining how authorized participants keep ETF prices in line…
How the Curve Steepening Is Reshaping Bond ETF Portfolios
On this episode of The Bond Investing Podcast, Lucas and Luna examine how the recent steepening of the Treasury yield curve—with the ten-year at 4.66 percent and the two-year at 4.25 percent—is changing the calculus for bond ETF investors. They dig into the mechanics of duration and roll-down, using TLT and SHY as real examples, and explain why the move is compressing risk premiums in corporate bonds. They also touch on the surprising resilience of mortgage-backed securities and what the July…
How the Fed Pause Is Compressing the Front End
Lucas and Luna dig into the quiet story at the front of the yield curve: the three-month Treasury is yielding 3.90 percent, the Fed funds rate is at 3.63, and interest on reserve balances sits at 3.65. That means short-term paper is trading rich to the Fed, even as markets price out any chance of a hike after July's jobs miss. They talk about what this spread tells you about funding conditions, how money market funds are holding cash overnight, and why the curve's steepening—ten-year at 4.69…
How Mortgage Bonds Are Priced Off Treasuries Now
With the 30-year Treasury yield holding near 5.2 percent and the 10-year at 4.63, mortgage-backed securities are repricing in ways that catch even seasoned bond investors off guard. In this episode, Lucas and Luna break down the mechanics of how mortgage bonds are priced off Treasuries, why the spread has widened this August, and what that means for your bond fund. They walk through the prepayment puzzle, the role of the Federal Reserve as a shrinking buyer, and why the 10-year yield can move…
Why the Steeper Curve Is Repricing Bond Risk
The yield curve has been flattening for months, but in early August 2026 it's doing something different: the 10-year Treasury yield dropped to 4.63 percent while the 30-year sits at 5.18 percent, and the spread between the 10-year and 2-year has widened to 45 basis points. On this episode, Lucas and Luna unpack what a steeper curve means for bond investors, from duration risk to credit spreads. They walk through the recent moves in TLT and IEF, explain why the 2-year yield's stubbornness above…
How ETFs Are Smoothing Out the Bond Market's Rough August
Bond ETFs are having a moment. As Treasury yields swing and the yield curve flattens, investors are pouring money into bond ETFs like TLT and LQD — but the flows are masking a deeper shift in how the market works. In this episode, Lucas and Luna dig into the surge in bond ETF trading volume, why the 30-year Treasury at 5.23 percent is pushing investors toward ETFs for liquidity, and what the rise of 'bond ETF liquidity' really means for your portfolio. They also break down the growing role of…
How Pension Funds Changed the Bond Market
In this episode of The Bond Investing Podcast, Lucas and Luna explore how pension funds' shift toward longer-duration assets is reshaping the Treasury market. With the 30-year yield at 5.27 percent and the 10-year at 4.75 percent, they unpack the mechanics behind the 'convexity hedge' and why this structural demand is keeping the yield curve steep. They also discuss what this means for individual bond investors, from duration risk to barbell strategies. Tune in for a clear, data-driven look at…
The Bullet Bond Comeback as 30-Year Yields Top 5 Percent
In this episode of The Bond Investing Podcast, Lucas and Luna explore why 'bullet bonds'—bonds that pay interest over time and return principal at maturity—are making a comeback in a market where the 30-year Treasury yield has climbed to 5.21 percent. They unpack the appeal of bullet structures for both issuers and investors, especially as pension funds seek predictable cash flows and corporations lock in long-term funding. The hosts discuss how a steep yield curve (10-year at 4.68, 30-year at…
How Pension Funds Are Reshaping Bond Portfolios as 30-Year Yields Top 5 Percent
In this episode of The Bond Investing Podcast, Lucas and Luna dig into the recent push of 30-year Treasury yields above 5 percent—a level not seen in years. They explore how pension funds, with their long-duration liabilities, are responding to this new regime. With the 30-year at 5.21 percent and the 10-year at 4.68 percent, the conversation covers the math of liability-driven investing, the return of the term premium, and why some pensions are shifting from equities to bonds. They also touch…
How Pension Funds Are Reshaping Bond Portfolios as 30-Year Yields Top 5 Percent
The 30-year Treasury yield has surged to 5.21 percent, its highest in years, and pension funds are responding by shifting billions into long-duration bonds to lock in yields and improve funded status. Lucas and Luna explore how liability-driven investing (LDI) is reshaping demand for long Treasuries and corporate bonds, why the steep yield curve makes this strategy attractive, and what it means for individual investors. They discuss the mechanics of duration matching, the risk of convexity, and…
How Trade War Fears Are Reshaping Bond Yields
The 10-year Treasury yield dropped 4 basis points this week to 4.61% as the Fed's cautious meeting minutes and escalating US-China trade tensions drive a flight to quality. Lucas and Luna break down why long-term yields are falling even as the yield curve steepens, what the spike in the 10-2 spread from 35 to 45 basis points means for investors, and how corporate bonds are pricing in geopolitical risk. Plus, why inflation expectations are staying stubborn despite the safe-haven bid, and what…
Why the 3-Month Treasury Yield Is 25 Basis Points Above the Fed's IOER
The 3-month Treasury yield is currently 3.90 percent, a full 25 basis points above the Federal Reserve's interest on reserves rate of 3.65 percent. That gap is a red flag for money market functioning and Fed policy credibility. In this episode, Lucas and Luna break down the mechanics of administered rates, why the spread has blown out, and what it signals about the bond market's expectations for Kevin Warsh's Fed. They tie it to the recent Fed statement, Jeffrey Gundlach's warning, and the…
How AI Trading Bots Are Reshaping Corporate Bond Market Liquidity
This episode examines the growing role of artificial intelligence in corporate bond trading. With startups and brokers deploying AI agents to trade around the clock, the traditionally opaque and illiquid bond market is seeing narrower spreads, faster execution, and new risks. Lucas and Luna discuss how algorithms are increasingly providing two-sided quotes for investment-grade and high-yield bonds, referencing current ETF prices (LQD at 106.83, HYG at 79.42) and the 10-year yield at 4.65%. They…
Why the Two-Year Yield Is Staying Above the Fed Funds Rate
The 2-year Treasury yield is holding at 4.31 percent, nearly 70 basis points above the Fed funds rate of 3.63. That gap has persisted for months, and it's not just about rate-cut expectations. Lucas and Luna unpack the term premium hiding in the short end, what it means for bond investors, and whether the 2-year yield is signaling something the Fed isn't saying yet. Using current data from July 28, 2026, they explore the disconnect between the front end and the central bank's benchmark.…
The Return of the Term Premium in Bond Markets
The 10-year Treasury yield sits at 4.64% and the 30-year at 5.12%, but the story goes beyond Fed policy. Lucas and Luna explain the resurgence of the term premium—the extra compensation investors demand for holding long-term bonds. Using New York Fed model estimates and current yield curve data from July 2026, they break down why term premium turned positive after years of being negative, how fiscal deficits and quantitative tightening are driving it, and what it means for pension funds…
What the 3-Month Yield Above the Fed's IOER Means for Investors
The 3-month Treasury yield has climbed to 3.96 percent, now sitting more than 30 basis points above the Federal Reserve's interest on reserve balances (IOER) at 3.65 percent. This unusual spread last appeared in 2019 and signals tightness in money markets, with implications for cash management and bond positioning. In this episode, Lucas and Luna break down why this gap matters, how it affects money market funds and repo rates, and what fixed-income investors should watch next. They also…
How Oil's Surge Is Reshaping Treasury Yields and Rate Expectations
In late July 2026, crude oil has surged more than 12 percent since the start of the month, sending inflation expectations higher and reshaping the Treasury market. Lucas and Luna break down how the 10-year yield climbed to 4.71 percent, the 2-year to 4.37 percent, and the 30-year above 5.16 percent—while the Fed funds rate sits at 3.63 percent. They explore why the market is now pricing in a potential rate hike, what the steepening yield curve (10Y-2Y at 36 basis points) tells us, and how the…
How AI Spending Is Splitting the Corporate Bond Market
In this episode of The Bond Investing Podcast, Lucas and Luna examine how the massive AI-related capital expenditures by tech giants like Amazon, Meta, and Alphabet are creating a two-tier market in investment-grade corporate bonds. While these hyperscalers flood the market with new debt issuance, credit spreads on their bonds have widened relative to peers, raising questions about credit quality. Moody's recent warning about 'unprecedented' AI spending threatening credit ratings adds fuel to…
Why the 3-Month Treasury Yield Is Flashing a Fed Hike Warning
The three-month Treasury yield is now trading 32 basis points above the federal funds rate — a gap that historically signals the bond market expects the Fed to hike soon. In this episode, Lucas and Luna break down the mechanics behind the short-end yield spike, explore how surging oil prices are fueling inflation expectations, and discuss what this means for bond investors in July 2026. They unpack the data: the 3-month yield at 3.95%, Fed funds at 3.63%, and the 10-year yield at 4.71%. Plus…
How AI Spending Is Reshaping Corporate Bond Credit Risk
Moody's warns that unprecedented AI capital expenditure by Amazon, Meta, and Alphabet threatens their credit quality. With the 10-year Treasury at 4.71% and the 30-year above 5.17%, the bond market is already pricing in elevated risk. Lucas and Luna explore how massive tech spending, combined with rising rate-hike odds, is widening credit spreads and forcing bond investors to rethink duration and active management. They discuss CDS movements, the case for short-duration corporate debt, and…
How the 10-2 Yield Spread Falling Below 35 Basis Points Changes Bond Strategy
Lucas and Luna examine the yield curve's recent twist: the 10-year to 2-year spread dipped to 34 basis points on July 23, down from 36 the day before. They explain what this spread compression means for bond managers, especially in a week when the 30-year yield hit 5.17 percent and the 2-year rose to 4.31. Lucas argues the tightening spread signals renewed fear of front-loaded Fed hikes, not recession. Luna questions whether the curve is losing its predictive power. They walk through practical…
How Bond Market Liquidity Dried Up in July 2026
In this episode of The Bond Investing Podcast, Lucas and Luna dive into the sudden liquidity crunch gripping U.S. Treasury and corporate bond markets in late July 2026. With the 10-year yield at 4.67% and the 30-year pushing 5.15%, bid-ask spreads have widened dramatically, especially for off-the-run bonds. Lucas explains how the combination of oil price spikes, rate hike odds, and AI-themed ETF flows is squeezing dealer balance sheets. He points to JPMorgan's latest report showing a surge in…
Why Floating Rate Notes Are Beating Fixed Rate Bonds in July 2026
With the 2-year Treasury yield at 4.26% and the Fed holding rates steady at 3.63%, investors are piling into floating rate notes for the first time in years. Lucas and Luna break down how FRNs work, why their coupons reset weekly off the 13-week Treasury bill auction, and how they've returned 3.8% year-to-date compared to 2.1% for the Bloomberg Aggregate Bond Index. They also examine the risk that if the Fed cuts rates faster than expected, FRN yields could drop suddenly. Plus: why the $45…
How the 30-Year Yield Above 5% Changes Mortgage Bond Math
The 30-year Treasury yield holding above 5% for weeks now is more than a headline — it's reshaping the entire mortgage-backed securities market. Lucas and Luna break down how that yield level affects prepayment risk, refinancing incentives, and the relative value of agency MBS versus corporates. They walk through the math behind a typical 30-year fixed mortgage at current rates and explain why bond managers are shifting exposure. Specific numbers from the yield curve on July 22, 2026 anchor the…
How the 30-10 Year Yield Spread Signals Rate Anxiety
In this episode of The Bond Investing Podcast, Lucas and Luna unpack the widening gap between the 30-year and 10-year Treasury yields, which has hit 42 basis points as of July 22, 2026. They explore what this spread tells us about long-term inflation expectations, the Fed's policy path, and institutional investor behavior. Lucas explains why the 30-year yield at 5.13% is making pension funds rethink duration allocations, while the 10-year at 4.63% reflects a market uncertain about near-term…
How Floating Rate Notes Beat Fixed-Rate Bonds in July 2026
With short-term Treasury yields stuck above 3.7% and the 2-year yield rising to 4.21%, investors are piling into floating rate notes. Lucas and Luna break down how FRNs work, why their coupons reset weekly, and why they're outperforming fixed-rate bonds of similar duration. They walk through a real example: a $100,000 allocation to the iShares Floating Rate Bond ETF versus a 2-year Treasury note. With the 2-10 year spread at just 0.37%, the extra buffer from a floating coupon matters. They also…
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