Episodes
How the Fed Funds Rate Is Now a Footnote for Home Buyers
Episode 160 of US Economy with Fexingo looks at a quiet shift: the federal funds rate has become a footnote for many American home buyers. Lucas and Luna explain how the rise of all-cash purchases and adjustable-rate mortgages tied to SOFR has loosened the traditional link between Fed policy and mortgage rates. With the fed funds rate stuck at 3.63 percent and the 30-year mortgage near 6.5 percent, they unpack why the Fed's moves matter less than they used to. They explore data showing cash…
Why the Federal Deficit Is Spiking in Summer 2026
In this episode, Lucas and Luna dig into the latest federal budget data, which shows the deficit surging to its highest level since March 2021. They break down the two main drivers: interest payments on the national debt, now exceeding $1 trillion annually, and the cost of the renewed student loan repayment program. Lucas explains how the deficit is growing even as tax receipts remain strong, and why the Fed's high-rate environment is making the debt burden worse. They also connect the deficit…
Why Real GDP Growth Is Slowing While Nominal GDP Accelerates
On this episode of US Economy with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dig into why real GDP growth dropped to 1.5 percent in the second quarter of 2026 even as nominal GDP climbed to $32.5 trillion. They explain the widening gap between the two measures, what it signals about inflation and productivity, and why the Fed should care more about real growth than the headlines suggest. With consumer spending cooling and job growth flattening, they break down the numbers behind the slowdown and what it means…
Why July CPI Cooled but Core Prices Stayed Sticky
In this episode of US Economy with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dig into the July CPI report, which showed headline inflation cooling to 2.7 percent while core CPI held at 3.2 percent. They explain why the gap between headline and core matters for the Fed's next move, how shelter costs and used car prices are behaving, and what the flat wholesale price reading signals for future consumer prices. With the federal funds rate still at 3.63 percent and the labor market softening, the hosts debate…
Why US Job Openings Are Falling Without a Hiring Freeze
In this episode, Lucas and Luna dig into one of the most puzzling labor market trends of 2026: job openings are dropping steadily — down to 7.36 million in June — yet layoffs remain low and the unemployment rate actually ticked down to 4.1 percent. What's going on? They explore the rise of 'quiet quitting' by employers: firms pulling job postings, tightening hiring criteria, and relying on internal mobility instead of external recruitment. With data from JOLTS and average hourly earnings, they…
How the Budget Deficit Is Back With a Vengeance
In this episode of US Economy with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dig into the July budget deficit, which surged to its highest level since March 2021. They unpack the numbers behind the deficit — spending up, revenues down — and what that means for the Fed, the Treasury market, and your portfolio. With the 10-year Treasury yield at 4.64 percent and the Fed holding rates steady at 3.63 percent, the fiscal picture is getting complicated. Lucas breaks down the drivers: interest payments on the national…
Why the Deficit Is Back With a Vengeance in 2026
In this episode of US Economy with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dig into the July budget numbers that just came out — the deficit hit its highest level since March 2021. They break down what's driving the surge, from interest costs on the national debt to spending patterns, and why it's not necessarily the crisis the headlines suggest. They also connect the deficit to the latest CPI print, which came in at 3.4 percent annual inflation, and the Fed's tricky position. If you've been wondering why the…
US Consumers Are Restocking Their Savings as Paychecks Slow
On this episode of US Economy with Fexingo, hosts Lucas and Luna dig into a surprising trend: despite a soft July jobs report and cooling wage growth, the personal saving rate is climbing back toward pre-pandemic levels. They unpack the latest data — nonfarm payrolls dipped by 23,000, yet average hourly earnings are holding near $37.60 — and explain why households are choosing to rebuild their rainy-day funds instead of spending the stimulus-era cushion. With the Fed stuck at 3.63 percent and…
The US Job Market Is Losing Its Momentum
The July jobs report caught everyone off guard, with a loss of 23,000 jobs and an unemployment rate that ticked down to 4.1 percent. Lucas and Luna dig into what's really happening beneath that headline: the mixed signals from ADP and JOLTS, the tension between a cooling labor market and resilient productivity, and why the Fed's next move is getting harder to call. They break down the numbers that matter and what they mean for the economy heading into the fall. #USJobsReport #LaborMarket…
How a Soft Jobs Report Could Hide a Stronger Economy
The July jobs report showed a surprise loss of 23,000 jobs, but Lucas and Luna dive into why that headline might be misleading. They unpack the drop in the unemployment rate to 4.1 percent, the slowdown in job openings, and what the yield curve's recent steepening suggests about the second half of 2026. With the Fed holding rates and inflation cooling, they explore whether the labor market is truly breaking or just recalibrating. Expect concrete numbers, a look at how seasonal adjustments and…
The July Jobs Report Slump Explained
The July jobs report took a surprising turn: the US economy lost 23,000 jobs, snapping a long streak of gains. Lucas and Luna unpack the numbers, from the unemployment dip to 4.1 percent to the slowdown in job openings, and explore whether this is a blip or the start of a cooling trend. They look at what the ADP private payrolls figure of 44,000 signals, how the bond market is reacting, and what it all means for the Fed's next move. If you're trying to read the economic tea leaves, this episode…
Why the US Jobs Market Just Hit a Wall in July 2026
In this episode, Lucas and Luna dig into the surprise July jobs report, which showed a loss of 23,000 jobs and a private payroll gain of just 44,000. They explore what's behind the slowdown, from a cooling labor market to tariff-driven uncertainty, and why the unemployment rate still fell to 4.1 percent. They also examine the mixed signals from job openings and jobless claims, and what it means for the Federal Reserve's rate decision later this year. Plus, a look at how productivity gains are…
Why US Productivity Growth Is Accelerating in 2026
Lucas and Luna dive into the surprising pickup in US productivity growth in 2026, with real GDP per hour up over 2 percent year-over-year despite headwinds from tariffs and a slower economy. They explore how AI adoption, remote work, and a tight labor market are driving efficiency gains, and what it means for corporate profits, inflation, and Federal Reserve policy. The conversation touches on recent data showing job openings at 7.3 million and unemployment at 4.2 percent, and how a…
Why the Yield Curve Steepening Is a Double-Edged Sword
In this episode, Lucas and Luna dissect the current steepening of the US yield curve, a signal that has markets buzzing. With the ten-year Treasury at 4.62 percent and the two-year at 3.72 percent, the gap is the widest in over a decade. But contrary to popular belief, a steepening curve doesn't always herald recession. Lucas explains how this time it reflects both strong growth expectations and a Fed that's stuck between tariff-driven inflation and a cooling labor market. They discuss the…
How the Fed Is Stuck Between Tariffs and a Cooling Labor Market
In this episode of US Economy with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dig into the Federal Reserve's latest conundrum: inflation is cooling, but a key manufacturing survey shows price pressures 'worse than pandemic era,' while the labor market is softening. They unpack the June core CPI reading of 3.3 percent, the drop in job openings to 7.4 million, and what a divided Fed under Warsh means for rate policy. With the 10-year Treasury at 4.63 percent and the yield curve steepening, they explore whether the…
Why the US Economy Is Cooling Without Breaking
In this episode, Lucas and Luna dig into a peculiar moment for the US economy: real GDP growth just slowed to 1.5 percent, yet the labor market is still adding jobs and the unemployment rate ticked down to 4.2 percent. With the Fed holding rates steady and inflation creeping lower, is the US headed for a soft landing or something more complicated? The hosts explore what the recent JOLTS data and jobless claims numbers really tell us, why the bond market seems confident, and what a slowing but…
Why the Fed Is Holding Rates as Inflation Cools
The Federal Reserve is caught between cooling inflation and a slowing economy, with the federal funds rate stuck at 3.63 percent and real GDP growth falling to 1.5 percent in the second quarter of 2026. In this episode, Lucas and Luna unpack the Fed's latest policy dilemma: why core inflation at 3.3 percent is still above target, why the Fed isn't cutting rates despite the slowdown, and what the recent jump in jobless claims to 197,000 signals for the labor market. They explore the divide…
Why the Fed Holds Rates as Growth Slows
In this episode, Lucas and Luna dig into a puzzling snapshot of the US economy from mid-2026: real GDP growth has cooled to just 1.5 percent annualized, yet the Federal Reserve is holding the federal funds rate at 3.63 percent. They unpack the logic behind the central bank's patience, pointing to core PCE inflation that's still running at 3.3 percent—well above the 2 percent target—and a labor market that remains surprisingly tight, with unemployment at 4.2 percent and initial jobless claims…
Why the Federal Reserve Is Divided in July 2026
US GDP growth slowed to 1.5% in the second quarter of 2026, while core inflation remains above 3%. The Federal Reserve is caught between hawks worried about sticky prices and doves concerned about a cooling economy. This episode explores the internal divide at the Fed, what Fed watchers like Kevin Warsh are looking for in official statements, and how the split impacts bond markets and investor expectations. With unemployment at 4.2%, jobless claims inching up to 197,000, and a yield curve…
Why the US Economy Is Reaccelerating in 2026
The US economy grew at a 2.1 percent annualized rate in the first quarter of 2026, a sharp acceleration from the near-stall of late 2025. Lucas and Luna dig into what's driving this rebound — from a resilient labor market to business investment — and why the Fed is now deeply divided on whether to cut rates. With unemployment at 4.2 percent, jobless claims at 187,000, and inflation expectations ticking up, they explore whether the reacceleration can last or if tariff headwinds will eventually…
Why the Yield Curve Is Steepening in 2026
The US yield curve has steepened sharply in recent weeks, with the 2-year Treasury yield falling faster than the 10-year. Lucas and Luna break down what this bond market signal means for GDP growth, Fed policy, and the risk of recession. They tie the steepening to the Q1 2026 rebound in real GDP growth to 2.1%, the tight labor market with unemployment at 4.2%, and falling inflation expectations. Listeners learn why a steeper curve often predicts expansion, not contraction, but also why this…
The Yield Curve Uninverted Now What for Recession Risk
The yield curve is no longer inverted — the spread between 2-year and 10-year Treasuries is positive for the first time in over two years. But history suggests a positive curve often appears just before a recession, not after one. Lucas and Luna dig into the data: real GDP is growing at 2.1%, unemployment is 4.2%, and jobless claims hit 187,000 — a tight labor market. So why does the bond market seem to be pricing in a downturn? They explore the role of the Fed's rate path at 3.63%, anchored…
Why US Jobless Claims Just Hit 187,000 and What It Means
In this episode, Lucas and Luna dig into one of the most eye-popping numbers of 2026: initial jobless claims just fell to 187,000, the lowest level in decades. They explore why the labor market remains so tight despite tariff uncertainty, sticky inflation, and a Fed holding rates at 3.63%. Then they connect that strength to a clear split in the stock market: the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit 52,805, up 1.1% in five days, while the Nasdaq Composite dropped 3.1% to 24,897. What does that…
Why Inflation Looks Different in CPI vs PCE Data
In June 2026, headline CPI fell slightly to 332.6, but the Fed's preferred PCE gauge ticked up to 131.5. This divergence matters because the Fed targets PCE, not CPI, for its 2% goal. Lucas and Luna break down the measurement differences—how CPI weights housing more heavily, while PCE captures substitution effects and broader consumption patterns. They discuss why services inflation keeps core PCE sticky near 3%, even as goods prices moderate. Plus, how import tariffs on China and rising energy…
The Yield Curve Uninverts What It Means for the Economy in 2026
The US Treasury yield curve has normalized for the first time since 2022, with the 10-year yielding 4.65% and the 2-year at 4.40%. Hosts Lucas and Luna explore what this uninversion signals for recession fears, GDP growth, and the labor market. They connect the bond market shift to the Fed's rate policy, the strength in jobless claims at 187,000, and the 2.1% GDP growth. Does history's recession signal still hold? Or is this time different? A focused breakdown using the latest July 2026 data.…
Why Inflation Expectations Are Steady Despite Tariff Shocks
Despite new tariffs from the Trump administration and rising import prices from China, the bond market's inflation expectations have barely budged. In this episode, Lucas and Luna examine the 10-year breakeven inflation rate, why it remains anchored at 2.26 percent, and what that means for the Federal Reserve's interest rate stance. They discuss the role of falling energy prices, the impact of Singapore's surprise monetary policy tightening, and whether tariff-driven inflation is mostly a…
Why US Wage Growth Is Holding Steady as Inflation Drops
In June 2026, average hourly earnings rose to $37.60 while headline CPI fell from 333.98 to 332.6—a rare divergence that has economists scratching their heads. Lucas and Luna unpack the forces behind steady wage growth in a cooling inflation environment, from productivity gains and composition effects to the Fed's tricky balancing act. With jobless claims at 187,000 and core CPI flat, they explore whether this is a 'good' kind of disinflation or a signal of deeper structural shifts. The episode…
Why the Fed Can't Cut Rates Despite Strong GDP Growth
The US economy grew at a 2.1 percent annualized rate in the first quarter of 2026, while unemployment sits at 4.2 percent and jobless claims hit a fresh low of 187,000. Yet core inflation remains stubbornly above target, and the Fed is holding rates at 3.63 percent. In this episode, Lucas and Luna explore the growth-inflation paradox: why a booming economy isn't crushing price pressures, how services inflation and wage growth are keeping the Fed on hold, and what signals markets are parsing…
How New Tariffs Complicate the Fed's Inflation Fight
June import prices surprised to the upside, with costs of goods from China hitting their highest level since 2008, driven by new tariff policies. Meanwhile, headline CPI ticked down to 332.6, but core PCE inflation remains sticky above 3%, creating a dilemma for the Federal Reserve. In this episode, Lucas and Luna unpack the divergence between market-based inflation expectations (the 10-year breakeven fell to 2.26%) and actual core inflation, and explore how trade policy is complicating the…
How US Mortgage Rates Hit 7 Percent in Mid 2026
In this episode of US Economy with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dive into the surprising rise in US mortgage rates to 7 percent in mid-2026, despite the Federal Reserve holding the federal funds rate steady at 3.63 percent. They explore how the ten-year Treasury yield jumping to 4.70 percent over the past week is driving mortgage costs higher, even as inflation cools. Lucas explains the bond market's logic: strong nominal GDP growth above $31.8 trillion and a tight labor market with jobless claims…
Why US Corporate Cash Is Piling Up in Money Market Funds
In this episode of US Economy with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna explore the record $7.2 trillion parked in US money market funds as of mid-2026. They dig into why both corporations and households are piling into these short-term vehicles despite the Fed holding rates steady at 3.63 percent. Lucas explains the mechanics of reverse repo usage dropping to near zero and how money market yields around 4.5 percent are luring cash away from bank deposits and riskier assets. Luna points out the divergence…
Why US Manufacturing Employment Is Stalling Despite a Construction Boom
Episode 129 of US Economy with Fexingo. Lucas and Luna dig into a puzzle: US manufacturing construction spending has tripled since 2021, yet factory employment is barely growing. They trace the disconnect to automation, the semiconductor labor shortage, and data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showing that new chip plants need far fewer workers than old auto plants. With the S&P 500 near 7,500 and the 10-year Treasury at 4.66 percent, they ask whether the manufacturing revival is a jobs…
Why US Import Prices from China Hit 2008 Levels
In this episode, Lucas and Luna explore the surprising rise in US import prices from China, which hit levels not seen since 2008. They discuss the implications for inflation, the Fed's policy stance, and what it means for the broader economy. With the import price index posting a surprise gain, the hosts examine the structural factors behind the rise and whether it signals a shift in global trade dynamics. Tune in for a data-driven conversation on how this development fits into the current…
Why US Manufacturing Construction Is Booming in 2026
In this episode of US Economy with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dive into one of the most surprising economic stories of 2026: the surge in US manufacturing construction spending. Since the CHIPS Act and Inflation Reduction Act passed in 2022, spending on new factories has more than tripled, hitting $225 billion annualized by early 2026. We explore what's driving this boom—from semiconductor fabs to battery plants—and why it hasn't yet shown up in traditional GDP or jobs data. We also discuss the…
Why US Gasoline Demand Is Falling Despite Summer Driving Season
Despite the summer driving season and lower wholesale gasoline prices in June 2026, US gasoline demand has been surprisingly weak. In this episode, Lucas and Luna explore the forces behind the drop: Americans are driving less per capita than before the pandemic, EV adoption is slowly eating into gasoline consumption, and remote work has structurally reduced commuting miles. Recent data shows wholesale gasoline prices fell sharply in June, yet retail gas prices haven't fallen as much — and…
The Rising Cliff of US Commercial Real Estate Debt in 2026
Episode 125 of US Economy with Fexingo examines the coming wall of commercial real estate debt maturities. Lucas and Luna break down the $1.5 trillion in loans due before 2028, why office vacancy in major cities is still climbing, and how the Fed's higher-for-longer rate stance is squeezing landlords. They zoom in on a single data point: regional bank exposure to CRE loans, which has dropped slightly but remains elevated at 30 percent of assets. The hosts discuss whether the system is resilient…
Why US Services Inflation Is Sticking at 3.5 Percent
Episode 124 of US Economy with Fexingo dives into the stubborn persistence of services inflation, which is running at 3.5 percent even as goods prices cool. Lucas and Luna explore the drivers: rent, insurance, and healthcare costs that are slow to adjust. They discuss how this divergence complicates the Fed's path, with core PCE still above target. Using June 2026 CPI data showing a dip in headline inflation but sticky core services, they unpack why the Fed might hold rates steady through…
Why US Sticky Inflation Is Holding Above 3 Percent in 2026
In this episode, Lucas and Luna dig into one of the most puzzling economic stories of mid-2026: inflation has cooled from its peak, but core PCE is still running above 3 percent — and the last leg down is proving stubborn. They look at the specific categories keeping prices sticky: auto insurance, rent, and medical services. Lucas points to the Fed's latest Summary of Economic Projections, which shows officials now expect core PCE to end 2026 at 2.8 percent, not the 2.1 they projected back in…
Why US Furniture Prices Are Falling Fast in 2026
Episode 122 of US Economy with Fexingo dives into the surprising collapse of furniture prices in mid-2026. Lucas and Luna break down why the cost of sofas, tables, and mattresses dropped over 8% year-over-year, even as overall inflation stays sticky. They explore the post-pandemic demand hangover, a glut in Vietnamese imports, and the role of cheaper shipping rates. Using CPI data and recent import price trends, they explain how this category is deflating while services keep pushing prices up.…
Why US Consumer Sentiment Is Diverging from Spending Data
In this episode of US Economy with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dig into a puzzle that's been confounding economists in mid-2026: consumer sentiment surveys show Americans feeling awful about the economy, yet retail sales and personal consumption expenditures keep chugging along at a solid clip. They examine the latest University of Michigan sentiment index, which hit a 2026 low in June, versus the 0.4 percent monthly gain in core retail sales. The hosts explore three possible explanations: the gap…
Why US Coupon Spending Defies the Delayed-Gratification Narrative
Lucas and Luna dig into a surprising data point in the mid-2026 economy: despite higher interest rates and a cooling jobs market, coupon redemption at US retailers hit a five-year high in June. They trace the shift to the rise of digital coupon aggregators like Krazy Coupon Lady and the behavioral economics of small-win dopamine hits. Lucas explains why the average coupon face value has dropped to $1.42 even as redemption volume surged 18% year-over-year, and what that says about consumer…
Why US Commercial Real Estate Is Defying the Doom Narrative
Despite widespread predictions of a commercial real estate crash, core US office properties in top-tier markets are actually seeing rent growth and rising valuations in mid 2026. Lucas and Luna drill into the bifurcation: Class A buildings in major cities are thriving while older properties struggle. They discuss why the flight to quality is reshaping downtowns, how lower interest rates are unlocking deals, and what the recent JOLTS data tells us about office demand. Plus, why the wholesale…
Why US Import Prices from China Hit 2008 Levels
In this episode of US Economy with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dig into a striking data point from this week: import prices from China just hit their highest level since 2008, according to the latest Bureau of Labor Statistics report. They explore what's driving the surge — from lingering tariffs and supply chain shifts to the stronger dollar's counterintuitive effect — and what it means for American consumers, retailers, and the broader inflation picture. Along the way, they connect the dots to…
Why US Jobless Claims Are Falling in a 4.2 Percent Unemployment Economy
The US labor market is sending a subtle signal: initial jobless claims dropped to 208,000 in mid-July 2026, even as the unemployment rate sits at 4.2 percent. Lucas and Luna examine what's happening beneath the surface. They explore the divergence between the low level of new claims and the moderately elevated unemployment rate, digging into labor force participation, the quits rate, and sector-specific hiring patterns. The episode uses concrete data from the week of July 11, 2026, including…
How US Wholesale Deflation Is Reshaping the Economy in 2026
In June 2026, US wholesale prices unexpectedly fell 0.3 percent month over month, driven by a big drop in gasoline costs. This episode digs into what producer-price deflation means for the broader economy, from corporate profit margins to consumer inflation expectations. Lucas and Luna examine the Producer Price Index data, contrast it with still-elevated services inflation, and ask whether this is a temporary energy-driven dip or the start of a broader disinflationary trend. Along the way…
Why US PCE Inflation Differs So Much from CPI in 2026
In this episode of US Economy with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna unpack the growing gap between the Consumer Price Index and the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index in mid-2026. With CPI at 3.5% year-over-year and PCE hovering near 2.5%, they explain the methodological differences that cause the divergence: how healthcare, shelter, and substitution effects are measured differently. They walk through a concrete example of a household shifting from name-brand groceries to store brands, and…
Why US Small Businesses Are Hoarding Cash in 2026
Lucas and Luna explore a striking trend: US small businesses are sitting on record cash reserves even as the economy grows. With GDP at 2.1 percent and the Fed holding rates near 3.63 percent, Main Street firms are choosing liquidity over expansion. Lucas breaks down the numbers from the latest NFIB survey — 38 percent of owners cite inflation as their top concern, while only 12 percent plan to borrow. They discuss how this caution echoes post-2008 behavior, and what it means for job creation.…
Why US Wholesale Inflation Turned Negative in June 2026
In this episode, Lucas and Luna break down the surprising 0.3 percent decline in the Producer Price Index for June 2026, driven by a sharp drop in gasoline prices. They explore what falling wholesale prices mean for consumer inflation, corporate margins, and the Federal Reserve's next move. With CPI also coming in below expectations at 3.5 percent annually, the hosts examine whether the economy is entering a 'disinflationary sweet spot' or if energy volatility could reverse the trend. They also…
Why US Real GDP Growth Accelerated to 2.1 Percent in 2026
Episode 112 of US Economy with Fexingo examines the surprising acceleration in US real GDP growth to a 2.1 percent annualised rate in Q1 2026, up from just 0.5 percent in the previous quarter. Lucas and Luna dig into the components driving the rebound—consumer spending on durable goods, a rebound in housing investment, and a narrowing trade deficit—while questioning whether the pace is sustainable given sticky core PCE inflation and a Fed holding rates steady. They break down the GDP data…
Why US Corporate Bond Issuance Is Surging in Mid 2026
Lucas and Luna dig into a surprising trend in American finance: corporate bond issuance is hitting record levels in mid-2026, even though the Fed hasn't cut rates. They trace the story to the 'refinancing wall' — $1.5 trillion in investment-grade debt coming due by 2028. Lucas explains how companies are rushing to lock in yields before they fall, and why the average coupon on new issues has dropped 40 basis points since January. Luna brings up the unusual demand side: insurers and pension funds…
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