Episodes
Why Yarn Prices Are the New Oil Price
In this episode, Lucas and Luna explore how yarn prices have become the new oil price, reshaping global trade dynamics. With the US trade deficit at $73.26 billion in June 2026, down from $77.65 billion, and yarn exports rising, they unpack the surprising role of synthetic fibers in the modern economy. From Bangladesh's garment industry to the impact of a weaker dollar on competitiveness, they reveal why yarn is a hidden bellwether for inflation and trade flows. Tune in for a deep dive into the…
Why Somalia Is the New Test Case for Trade Enforcement
Somalia's coastline is now a laboratory for how the world polices maritime trade. In this episode of Trade and Tariffs, Lucas and Luna explore how the country's fishing waters became a test bed for new trade enforcement technologies and international agreements. They look at the specific numbers: a 200 percent increase in licensed foreign fishing vessels, the role of satellite monitoring and the UN's port state measures, and how the EU's recent tariff decision on Somali fish products is…
Why Korea's Export Machine Is Beating Every Trade Bloc
South Korea's export machine is on a tear: the won is up, the KOSPI is surging, and the iShares MSCI South Korea ETF (EWY) jumped more than 10% in a single week. On this episode of Trade and Tariffs, Lucas and Luna dig into the numbers behind this quiet trade victory — while China's ETF (FXI) dropped 4.4% and Brazil's (EWZ) fell 3.6% — and ask what Korea is doing differently. They unpick the mix of semiconductor resilience, a weaker dollar, and a currency that's strengthening without crushing…
How the Strait of Hormuz Crisis Reshaped Global Trade
On this episode of Trade and Tariffs with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna break down how the Strait of Hormuz crisis has redrawn the map of global oil and gas trade. They explore the shift to longer shipping routes, the rise of regional energy hubs, and the surprising winners and losers—from Asian importers to US exporters. With the trade-weighted dollar down and emerging markets in flux, they connect the dots between geopolitics, shipping costs, and your daily energy prices. Learn why the crisis is a…
Why Yarn Prices Are the New Oil Price
Cotton prices are spiking, but the real trade story is in yarn. This episode unpacks how a 12 percent jump in Pakistani yarn exports is squeezing Bangladesh's garment industry, why Vietnam is quietly buying up Turkish spinning mills, and what the yarn futures market on the Zhengzhou exchange tells us about global supply chains. Lucas and Luna trace a single T-shirt from field to factory to show how a commodity you've never heard of is becoming a bellwether for trade policy and inflation. They…
How Lettuce Prices Crashed After a Cyclospora Scare
In this episode of Trade and Tariffs with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dig into a surprising trade story: the record-setting plunge in lettuce prices after a cyclospora outbreak spooked consumers. They trace how a food-safety scare ripples through the entire supply chain, from farms in California and Arizona to grocery shelves, and what it reveals about the fragility of fresh-produce logistics. With the trade deficit narrowing to $73 billion in June and the dollar easing, they connect this…
How AI Computing Became a Tradable Commodity
In this episode of Trade and Tariffs with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna explore how AI computing power has transformed into a tradable asset class, with CME Group launching futures contracts in August 2026. They discuss the implications for global trade, supply chains, and the broader economy, tying in recent data on the trade deficit and the strengthening dollar. The conversation covers the mechanics of these new futures, the role of data centers and chip makers, and what this means for investors…
Why the Strategic Petroleum Reserve Drop Is a Trade Story
The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve just fell below 300 million barrels for the first time since 1983. Most coverage treats this as an energy story or a national security story. But Lucas and Luna argue it's also a trade story. In this episode, they explain how the reserve's depletion connects to the widening US trade deficit, the dollar's strength, and the shifting calculus of global oil markets. They walk through why the reserve was built, what the drawdown has meant for import dependence, and…
Why the Yen Carry Trade Unwind Is Rewiring Asian Exports
In this episode of Trade and Tariffs with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna unpack how the recent unwinding of the yen carry trade is reshaping global trade flows, with a sharp focus on Asian export economies. They connect the dots between the yen's sudden strength, the dollar's retreat, and the ripple effects on countries like South Korea and Taiwan, whose currencies and export sectors are feeling the squeeze. With Korea's won up 3.7 percent and Taiwan's dollar up 5.2 percent in the past week, the hosts…
Why Taiwan Dollar Is the Trade War's Quiet Bellwether
As the US trade deficit narrows and the dollar sits near 120 on the trade-weighted index, one currency is moving in a way that tells a bigger story: the Taiwan dollar. In this episode, Lucas and Luna unpack why the New Taiwan dollar's steady climb against the US dollar is a quiet signal of shifting trade flows, semiconductor leverage, and the limits of currency intervention. They look at how Taiwan's central bank has historically kept the currency cheap to support exporters, why that playbook…
Why Taiwan ETFs Are Rewiring Global Trade
In this episode of Trade and Tariffs with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna explore a striking market anomaly: while emerging market funds like EEM and VWO are up over the past week, Taiwan's ETF (EWT) has surged 4.7 percent—outpacing even tech-heavy indices. They dig into the structural forces behind this divergence: Taiwan's deepening role in advanced chip packaging, the decoupling of Asian tech supply chains, and how the island's export numbers are decoupling from the mainland's. Lucas explains why…
Why Taiwan's ETF Surge Is Rewiring Global Trade
Taiwan's stock market has been on a tear this week, with the EWT ETF jumping nearly 6 percent in five days. But beyond the equity rally lies a deeper story: Taiwan is quietly becoming a linchpin in the global semiconductor supply chain, and its trade data is starting to reflect that. In this episode, Lucas and Luna dig into the numbers behind Taiwan's export boom, the role of AI-driven chip demand, and what it means for global trade flows. They also explore how Taiwan's trade surplus is…
How the US Trade Deficit Narrowed Despite Tariffs
The US trade deficit narrowed to $73.3 billion in June 2026, the first meaningful improvement in months. In this episode, Lucas and Luna dig into the numbers behind the headline: exports hit a record $3.75 trillion annualized pace while imports stayed stubbornly high. They look at the dollar's strength, the yen's recent surge, and what the timing of exports—especially aircraft and energy—means for the trend. Is this a real shift or a blip? They explore how tariff refunds and shifting supply…
How the Yen Carry Trade Is Unraveling Global Currency Flows
In the summer of 2026, the Japanese yen staged its most dramatic rally in decades, catching global markets off guard and forcing a massive unwinding of the carry trade. Lucas and Luna unpack the mechanics of this trade, why it unraveled, and what it means for currency flows, emerging markets, and the US trade deficit. They look at the latest data — the yen strengthening to 159 per dollar, the Dow jumping 1,000 points, and the S&P 500 hitting a record — and connect the dots between central bank…
Why the Trade Deficit Keeps Widening Despite Tariffs
The US trade deficit hit $77.6 billion in May 2026, the widest in years, even as President Trump's tariffs push domestic manufacturing. Lucas and Luna dig into the paradox: why tariffs haven't closed the gap, how a strong dollar and booming imports are driving the numbers, and what the J-curve effect means for the months ahead. With a fresh look at the dollar index, import/export data, and the role of emerging markets, they explore whether tariffs are actually working or just reshaping trade…
How the Yen Rally Is Reshaping Global Trade Flows
In this episode of Trade and Tariffs with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna break down the recent coordinated yen-support action by Tokyo and Washington and what it means for global trade. With the yen strengthening from multi-decade lows, we explore how a firmer yen could alter Japan's export competitiveness, impact the US trade deficit, and reshape supply chains across Asia. We dig into the numbers: the trade-weighted dollar at 120.7, the yen at 163.7 per dollar, and the latest US trade deficit…
Why the US Trade Deficit Is Widening Despite Weaker Dollar
The US trade deficit hit a record $77.6 billion in May, even as the dollar softened. Lucas and Luna unpack the J-curve effect, the 'invoicing currency' phenomenon, and why a weaker dollar can initially worsen the deficit. They dive into the mechanics of trade-weighted exchange rates, the role of dollar-denominated commodities, and how the recent Treasury intervention to support the yen could actually boost US exports. Along the way, they explore a new paper suggesting that dollar depreciation…
How Chip Decoupling Is Splitting Asian Tech Exports
Taiwan's market is sliding while China's rallying and the Nasdaq soars on chip stocks. In this episode, Lucas and Luna unpack how the US chip war with China is creating a trade divide across Asia. With Taiwan's EWT fund down 4 percent in a week and China's FXI up over 5 percent, they explore why export controls designed to hurt China may be hurting Taiwan more. They examine TSMC's tricky position, China's push for self-sufficient chip production, and what this means for the widening US trade…
How the Strait of Hormuz Crisis Is Reshaping Global Trade
In this episode, Lucas and Luna break down the escalating U.S.-Iran conflict and its immediate impact on global trade through the Strait of Hormuz. They examine how shipping insurance costs have skyrocketed, forcing vessels to reroute around Africa, adding weeks to delivery times and inflating costs. The hosts connect these disruptions to the widening U.S. trade deficit—now at $77.6 billion in May—and the pressure on energy prices. With the Trade-Weighted Dollar Index slipping to 120.7, they…
Why South Korea Market Is Crashing While China Rallies
This week saw a stunning divergence in Asian stock markets: South Korea's EWY ETF plunged over 13% while China's FXI rallied 5.4%. Lucas and Luna unpack why—from the Fed's hawkish hold to Korea's semiconductor woes and China's stimulus push. Plus, how the widening US trade deficit plays into the picture, and what it means for global trade flows. #TradeWar #SouthKorea #China #Semiconductors #Fed #RateDecision #TradeDeficit #StrongDollar #EmergingMarkets #EWY #FXI #StockMarketDivergence #Exports…
The J-Curve Why a Weaker Dollar Worsens the Trade Deficit First
In this episode, Lucas and Luna break down the J-curve effect—the counterintuitive reason a falling dollar can initially widen the U.S. trade deficit before narrowing it. Using the latest May 2026 data—the deficit surged to $77.6 billion, up 42% from April, while the trade-weighted dollar only slipped 0.2% to 120.7—they explain the economic mechanics at work. Lucas walks through the short-run price elasticity of imports and exports, why invoicing in dollars delays adjustment, and how the recent…
How Shein Tests the Limits of Trade Enforcement
Shein, the fast-fashion giant valued at over $60 billion, is now under FTC investigation as it prepares for a Hong Kong IPO. This episode unpacks how Shein's business model exploits the de minimis loophole—allowing packages under $800 to enter the US duty-free—and has reshaped global apparel trade. With US trade deficits widening to $77.6 billion in May 2026, we examine whether regulators can close this e-commerce trade gap, and what it means for retailers, consumers, and the future of tariff…
Why the US-Korea Tech Stock Link Is a Trade Risk
South Korea's KOSPI plunged 10% in a day while the Nasdaq dropped 3.5%. The reason? U.S. and Korean tech stocks are now tightly linked through semiconductor supply chains. Lucas and Luna explore how this interdependence creates systemic risk for investors, especially as trade tensions rise. With the Korea ETF (EWY) down 6.8% in five days and the U.S. trade deficit widening, they ask whether decoupling is possible—or even desirable. Plus, a look at how Samsung and SK Hynix depend on Apple and…
Why South Korea's Chip Crisis Is a Trade Warning
The Kospi plunged 10 percent in a single day and SK Hynix lost 13 percent — the worst sell-off in years. Hosts Lucas and Luna unpack why Korea's semiconductor export dependence makes it ground zero for the escalating US-China tech war. They explore how memory chip oversupply, AI demand worries, and US export controls are converging, and what the tight linkage between US and Korean tech stocks means for global trade. With the US trade deficit widening and a strong dollar compounding export…
How Brazil Is Becoming a Trade War Winner in 2026
While South Korean and Taiwanese stocks sink, Brazil's market is holding up. Lucas and Luna examine how the trade war between the US and China is redirecting commodity flows, making Brazil a quiet beneficiary. They discuss the surge in Brazilian soybean and iron ore exports to China, the role of a strong dollar, and why this trend could persist. With the S&P 500 down and chip stocks tumbling, Brazil's trade surplus is widening as the US deficit grows. A look at the numbers behind the shift.…
Why CXMT's 500 Percent IPO Surge Matters for Trade
China's homegrown memory chip maker CXMT skyrocketed 500% in its Shanghai debut, marking a milestone in Beijing's push for semiconductor self-sufficiency. This episode examines how the AI-driven demand for memory chips is creating a new flashpoint in the US-China trade war, with potential tariffs on the horizon. Lucas and Luna break down the numbers behind the IPO, the role of the strong dollar in widening the US trade deficit, and why Goldman Sachs is betting on Asian currencies riding the AI…
Why the Strong Dollar Is Widening the US Trade Deficit in 2026
The US trade deficit hit $77.6 billion in May 2026, the widest in months, even as tariffs remain high. Lucas and Luna explore how a strong dollar—the trade-weighted index sits at 120.5—is making US exports pricier abroad and imports cheaper at home, directly counteracting tariff goals. With the yen at 162 per dollar and the yuan flat at 6.78, the episode unpacks why currency dynamics matter more than ever for trade policy. A must-listen for anyone wondering why tariffs haven't narrowed the gap.…
Why Chocolate Stays Expensive Despite Falling Cocoa Prices
Cocoa futures have dropped sharply from their 2024 highs, but chocolate bars at the checkout haven't budged. Lucas and Luna unpack the complex trade and tariff dynamics behind the cocoa-to-chocolate pipeline: processing margins, sugar tariffs, transportation costs, and the strong dollar. They use the latest trade balance data — a widening US deficit — and the strong dollar index to explain why cheaper cocoa doesn't mean cheaper chocolate. Plus, a look at structural factors like concentration in…
Why Trump's New Tariffs Face a Legal Challenge
Just hours after the Trump administration imposed new tariffs on consumer electronics and machinery from China and the EU, a coalition of trade groups filed a lawsuit arguing the president overstepped his authority. We dig into the legal arguments—including the nondelegation doctrine and the limits of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act—and explore how a strong dollar (the trade-weighted index hit 120.5) is making US exports less competitive, widening the trade deficit despite the…
How the Yen Carry Trade Is Unraveling Global Currency Flows
The yen has been the world's cheapest borrowing currency for years, fueling a massive carry trade that pumped liquidity into emerging markets. But with the Bank of Japan finally hinting at rate hikes and the yen at 162 per dollar, that trade is starting to reverse. Lucas and Luna break down how unwinding yen carry positions is already hitting EM stocks — South Korea's KOSPI just surged 7% in five days, while India's market slumped — and what happens if the BOJ actually tightens. They trace the…
How $100 Oil Is Rewriting Global Trade Routes
Today on Trade and Tariffs, Lucas and Luna look at what happens when Brent crude crosses $100 a barrel and the ripples touch trade policy. They analyze how the strong US dollar complicates inflation fights, why an already widening trade deficit may get worse, and which emerging markets are feeling the squeeze. Along the way, they reference the recent spike in the S&P 500 and Dow, and discuss how Vietnam and South Korea are navigating this environment. Specific data points include the…
How Oil Tanker Attacks Disrupt Global Trade Insurance
This episode dives into how recent Houthi strikes on Saudi Arabian oil tankers are creating ripple effects across global trade insurance markets. Lucas and Luna discuss how war risk premiums for vessels transiting the Red Sea have spiked to levels not seen since the height of the Iran-Iraq war, and what that means for shipping costs, inflation, and supply chains. They reference the 25 percent jump in South Korea's EWY ETF and Brazil's EWZ rally as investors recalibrate exposure to oil-sensitive…
How Vietnam Is Becoming the New Trade War Winner
Episode 130 of Trade and Tariffs with Fexingo. Lucas and Luna explore how Vietnam is emerging as the primary beneficiary of the ongoing US-China trade war, with exports surging 34% year-over-year in 2026. They dive into specific sectors — from electronics assembly in Ho Chi Minh City to textile manufacturing in Da Nang — and examine the infrastructure bottlenecks that could limit Vietnam's rise. The hosts also touch on the broader shift in global supply chains, referencing recent data on…
Why Maersk Is Betting on Africa Trade Routes
Global shipping giant Maersk just announced a major expansion into African ports, doubling down on a continent that has long been a logistical afterthought. Lucas and Luna unpack why one of the world's largest container lines is pivoting toward West and East African hubs — and what it tells us about the future of global trade. They look at the numbers: while the US trade deficit hit a record $77.6 billion in May 2026, and the strong dollar is crushing exports, Maersk is betting on intra-African…
How Generic Drug Tariffs Could Reshape Pharma Supply Chains
Episode 128 of Trade and Tariffs with Fexingo dives into the Trump administration's proposed 25% tariffs on generic drugs starting in 2028. Lucas and Luna explore the economics behind the policy, the current state of pharmaceutical supply chains concentrated in India and China, and what it means for drug prices and U.S. manufacturing. They examine the trade-weighted U.S. dollar index sitting at 120.5, the widening trade deficit, and the delicate balance between onshoring goals and public health…
How a Weak Yen Is Reshaping Global Auto Trade
Episode 127 of Trade and Tariffs with Fexingo examines how Japan's persistently weak yen—trading at 162 yen per dollar as of mid-July 2026—is reshaping global auto trade. Lucas and Luna break down how this currency divergence acts as a de facto export subsidy for Japanese automakers like Toyota and Honda, allowing them to undercut competitors in the US and European markets. They explore the ripple effects on South Korea's Hyundai and Kia, the EU's response via anti-dumping investigations, and…
How Trade War Tariffs Are Reshaping Global Supply Chains in 2026
In this episode of Trade and Tariffs with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna break down the stunning reversal in US trade data for May 2026. The trade deficit surged to $77.6 billion, its widest since 2022, despite years of tariff policy aimed at narrowing it. They explore why tariffs alone don't reduce deficits—focusing on the strong dollar, import demand elasticity, and the surprising resilience of US consumer spending. Using recent headlines on Canadian goods tariffs and the Strait of Hormuz conflict…
Why the US Trade Deficit Is Widening Despite Tariffs
Episode 125 of Trade and Tariffs with Fexingo. Lucas and Luna unpack the latest US trade balance data, which shows the deficit widening to $77.6 billion in May 2026 despite years of tariff policy. They explore why import growth is outpacing exports, the role of a strong dollar and energy prices, and what this means for the broader trade war narrative. The conversation drills into specific numbers, including the trade-weighted dollar index at 120.5 and the impact of Brent crude above $90. Tune…
How Trade Wars Reshape Indian Generic Drug Exports
Episode 124 of Trade and Tariffs with Fexingo examines how the escalating US-China trade war is reshaping the global generic pharmaceutical trade, with India's $50 billion generic drug industry caught in the crossfire. Lucas and Luna break down why the US is considering tariffs on Indian generics—a sector that supplies 40% of America's prescription volume—and how Chinese active pharmaceutical ingredient (API) dependence makes supply chains vulnerable. Using live data on the trade-weighted…
Why Taiwan Is Becoming a Semiconductor Tariff Target
In this episode of Trade and Tariffs with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna break down why the U.S. is considering semiconductor tariffs on Taiwan, a move that could reshape the $600 billion chip trade. Taiwan's TSMC produces over 90% of the world's most advanced chips, and a 25% tariff could disrupt everything from Apple's supply chain to defense electronics. The hosts explore the logic behind the tariff threat, the potential for retaliation from China, and what it means for the global semiconductor…
How Panama Canal Drought Is Rewriting Global Shipping Routes
In this episode of Trade and Tariffs with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dive into the escalating drought at the Panama Canal and how it's forcing a dramatic rerouting of global trade. With water levels at the Gatun Lake at near-record lows, the canal authority has slashed daily transits by 36%, causing shipping costs to spike and supply chains to scramble. We break down the specific impact on LNG carriers from the US Gulf to Asia, the surge in alternative routes like the Suez Canal and the Cape of…
Why the Trade War Is Boosting Vietnam Factory Exports
While headlines focus on tariffs and decoupling, Vietnam's factory exports to the US have surged 28 percent in the first half of 2026. Lucas and Luna unpack how the trade war is quietly making Vietnam the world's new assembly line, the companies moving production there, and the risks including infrastructure bottlenecks and US scrutiny. The US trade deficit with Vietnam has widened to $83 billion, raising questions about how long the honeymoon lasts. A focused look at one country's supply chain…
Why Taiwan Semiconductor Stocks Are Getting Crushed
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, TSMC, the world's most advanced chipmaker, has seen its stock drop nearly 7% in a week. The sell-off isn't about earnings or geopolitics alone — it's about a shift in the global trade of compute. As US cloud giants like Amazon and Google pour billions into domestic AI chip production, TSMC's monopoly on leading-edge fabrication is being challenged for the first time. Lucas and Luna break down the numbers: Taiwan's EWZ ETF is down 4.9% in five days…
Why Olive Oil Trade Is the New Geopolitical Flashpoint
On this episode of Trade and Tariffs with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna explore how the global olive oil market has become an unexpected battleground in trade geopolitics. With the world's largest producer, Spain, recovering from a historic drought-driven crisis, and US tariffs on European agri-food imports still in place, the olive oil trade is reshaping supply chains from Andalusia to California. We look at how a 25 percent tariff on Spanish olive oil has boosted domestic production in the US but…
How South Korea's Export Collapse Is Rewriting Chip Trade
Episode 118 of Trade and Tariffs with Fexingo examines South Korea's deepening export crisis in mid-2026. The iShares MSCI South Korea ETF (EWY) plunged over 10% in five days, hitting levels not seen since the 2020 pandemic. Lucas and Luna drill into the specific drivers: memory chip oversupply from China's factory glut, US-China export controls squeezing Samsung and SK Hynix, and the won's depreciation against the dollar. They connect the collapse to broader emerging market…
Why the US Just Hit Brazil with 25 Percent Tariffs
On July 16, 2026, the US announced a 25% tariff on most Brazilian goods. Lucas and Luna unpack the specific triggers—from Brazil's currency manipulation complaints to its rising steel exports—and what this means for Latin American trade realignment. They connect the move to the broader trade war logic: the US is now targeting middle-income allies, not just China. With the dollar still strong at 120.5 on the trade-weighted index, the episode explores who wins and loses when tariffs shift from…
How Maersk Is Rerouting Around the Panama Canal Drought
The Panama Canal, a linchpin of global trade, is facing its worst drought in decades, forcing shipping giant Maersk to reroute vessels around South America. This episode dives into how the water shortage is redrawing trade maps, raising costs for retailers, and accelerating shifts toward nearshoring. We discuss the specific toll on container shipping rates, the impact on US East Coast ports, and why this environmental crisis is becoming a permanent trade barrier. Lucas and Luna examine the…
Why Lithium Trade Is the New Battery War
As the world scrambles for battery minerals, a new trade battleground is emerging around lithium processing. Lucas and Luna unpack how China controls over 60 percent of lithium refining capacity, why Washington is pouring $3 billion into domestic processing, and what that means for electric vehicle supply chains. They discuss the concentration risk—similar to rare earths—and whether Western refineries can compete on cost. Plus, a look at how tariffs on Chinese lithium products could backfire by…
How Trade War Tariffs Are Reshaping Global Currency Wars
In this episode of Trade and Tariffs with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dive into the escalating currency tensions triggered by the ongoing trade war. With the trade-weighted US dollar index slipping to 120.5 and the yen weakening past 161 per dollar, they explore how tariffs are forcing central banks into competitive devaluation. They discuss the impact on emerging markets like Brazil and South Korea, and examine whether the era of a strong dollar is ending. Tune in for a sharp, data-driven analysis…
How Chinese Factory Glut Is Reshaping Global Trade
Episode 113 of Trade and Tariffs with Fexingo. Lucas and Luna examine how China's massive overcapacity in factories and exports is driving deflation and reshaping trade flows. With China's June exports rising at the fastest pace since 2021 — driven by AI boom and tariff rush — they break down the implications for global supply chains, emerging markets, and the trade-weighted dollar. They discuss how the FXI index rose 2.9% in a week while other emerging markets lagged, and whether the U.S.…
Showing the latest 50 episodes. The full archive of 162 is on Apple Podcasts, Spotify and every major podcast app — or via the RSS feed above.