
Episodes
Why the Unemployment Rate Is Falling While Hiring Fades
In this episode of The Labor Market Podcast, Lucas and Luna dig into one of the strangest trends of 2026: the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1 percent in July even as nonfarm payrolls shrank by 23,000 jobs. How can fewer people be working while fewer people are jobless? The answer lies in a subtle shift in labor force participation and a drop in job openings to 7.36 million. The hosts break down the data, explain the role of discouraged workers and demographic shifts, and ask whether this is a…
Why the Unemployment Rate Is Falling While Hiring Fades
In this episode of The Labor Market Podcast, Lucas and Luna dig into a paradox that's been quietly shaping the 2026 job market: the unemployment rate keeps drifting down even as monthly payroll growth has slowed to a crawl. Using the latest data from July 2026 — unemployment at 4.1 percent, down from 4.2, while nonfarm payrolls actually dipped by 23,000 — they explore the forces behind this divergence. From labor force participation to the quits rate and the JOLTS openings drop, they break down…
Why Quits Are Falling Even as Jobs Stay Open
Lucas and Luna dig into a puzzle that has quietly defined the 2026 labor market: the quits rate keeps sliding while job openings remain historically high. With openings down to 7.36 million in June and unemployment at 4.1 percent, workers are staying put — and that has big implications for wage growth and the Fed's next move. They unpack the latest JOLTS data, why the quits rate is the most forward-looking number in the report, and what it means when workers stop jumping ship. They also look at…
Why Job Openings Are Falling Without a Spike in Layoffs
In this episode of The Labor Market Podcast, hosts Lucas and Luna explore a puzzle at the heart of the 2026 labor market: job openings are falling, yet layoffs remain historically low. Using the latest JOLTS data showing openings down to 7.36 million from 7.54 million, they unpack why employers are choosing to hoard workers rather than cut them, even as the economy slows. They look at the cost of hiring and training, the lingering effects of the pandemic-era labor shortage, and how the…
Why Retail Spending Is Up While Hiring Stalls
Lucas and Luna dig into the latest JOLTS report and the July jobs data to explain a puzzle: job openings are falling and hiring is slowing, yet consumer spending and the stock market keep climbing. They break down the disconnect between the real economy and Wall Street, using the recent 209,000 jobless claims and the flat wholesale price index as anchor points. The conversation reveals why employers are cautious about adding headcount even as they hold onto existing workers, and what that means…
Why Job Openings Are Falling Without a Spike in Layoffs
In this episode of The Labor Market Podcast, Lucas and Luna dig into a puzzle that's been quietly shaping the 2026 labor market: job openings are falling — from 7.5 million in May to 7.36 million in June — yet layoffs remain near historic lows and the unemployment rate actually ticked down to 4.1 percent. What's going on? They unpack the 'hoarding effect' that took root after the pandemic, the role of remote work in keeping workers attached to their jobs, and why a cooling labor market doesn't…
Why the Unemployment Rate Fell While Hiring Slowed in 2026
In this episode of The Labor Market Podcast, Lucas and Luna dig into a puzzle from the July 2026 jobs report: the unemployment rate ticked down to 4.1 percent even as nonfarm payrolls shrank by 23,000 jobs. How can fewer jobs lead to a lower unemployment rate? The answer lies in a quieter number: the labor force participation rate. Fewer people actively looking for work means the unemployment rate can fall even when hiring stalls. Lucas breaks down the math behind the household survey and the…
How Two Data Sets Explain the 2026 Hiring Puzzle
The July jobs report showed a loss of 23,000 jobs, yet the unemployment rate fell to 4.1 percent. Lucas and Luna dig into the contradiction by comparing two underappreciated data points: the employment cost index and median weekly earnings. They explain why wage growth is slowing at the hourly level while weekly paychecks climb, and what that means for workers, the Fed, and the broader economy. Along the way, they touch on the latest jobless claims, the quits rate, and why this labor market…
The Real Story Behind the July Jobs Report Loss
In this episode of The Labor Market Podcast, Lucas and Luna dig into the surprising July jobs report, which showed a loss of 23,000 jobs despite a falling unemployment rate. They explore what's really going on beneath the headline number: the impact of the World Cup ending, revisions to previous months, and the ongoing trend of workers staying put. With the unemployment rate dropping to 4.1 percent and weekly earnings outpacing hourly wages, the hosts connect the dots between productivity…
Why Worker Productivity Is Rising While Hiring Slows
In the wake of the disappointing July jobs report, which showed the economy losing 23,000 jobs, Lucas and Luna dig into a surprising countertrend: productivity growth. With nonfarm payrolls down and unemployment ticking to 4.1 percent, output per hour is climbing at its fastest clip in years. They explore what's driving this — from AI adoption to workers simply doing more with less — and whether it's good news for the economy or a warning sign for job seekers. Using the latest data, including…
Why the July Jobs Report Lost 23,000 Jobs
July 2026 delivered a shock: the U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs, the first negative print in years. Unemployment ticked down to 4.1 percent, but wages barely moved. Lucas and Luna dig into what happened, from the end of the World Cup boost to the drag from lower federal hiring. They look at why the labor market is so hard to read right now, and what it means for workers and the Fed. If you've ever wondered why a jobs report can feel so contradictory, this episode connects the dots. #JobsReport…
Why Job Openings Are Falling Yet Workers Stay Put
In this episode of The Labor Market Podcast, Lucas and Luna dig into a striking disconnect: job openings dropped to 7.36 million in June, the lowest in years, yet workers aren't quitting and layoffs remain near record lows. With unemployment at 4.2 percent and wage growth still positive, the labor market looks like it's holding its breath. They explore the 'hoarding effect' — employers reluctant to let people go after the hiring struggles of the past few years — and what it means for the Fed's…
Why Workers Are Staying Put Despite Rising Openings
In this episode of The Labor Market Podcast, Lucas and Luna dig into a puzzle: the job market is cooling—private payrolls added just 44,000 in July—yet workers aren't quitting. The quits rate has stayed unusually low, even as job openings remain historically high. Why the disconnect? Lucas breaks down the latest JOLTS data, showing openings fell to 7.36 million in June, while the quits rate hovers near a decade low. He explains how employers are hoarding workers, and why workers are clinging to…
Why Wage Growth Is Cooling Despite Rate Cuts
In this episode of The Labor Market Podcast, Lucas and Luna unpack a paradox: the Federal Reserve is easing policy, yet wage growth keeps slowing. They look at the latest data—hourly earnings up just 2.8 percent year-over-year, weekly earnings up 4 percent—and ask what's really going on. Is the labor market stronger than the headlines suggest, or are employers finding new ways to hold down pay? They dig into the gap between hourly and weekly earnings, the role of hours worked, and why the Fed's…
What the Latest Jobless Claims Jump Tells Us About Fall 2026
In Episode 148 of The Labor Market Podcast, Lucas and Luna dig into the surprising jump in initial jobless claims to 197,000 in late July 2026, up from 188,000 the week before. They explore what this signals for the broader labor market, why it might not be as alarming as it seems, and how it fits with the unemployment rate dipping to 4.2 percent. They also connect the dots to the Fed's inflation-fighting stance and the slowdown in job creation, offering a nuanced take on whether workers should…
Why Weekly Pay Is Still Beating Hourly Wages
In this episode of The Labor Market Podcast, Lucas and Luna dig into a quiet but telling divergence: while average hourly earnings grew 2.4% year-over-year in June, median weekly earnings have climbed nearly twice as fast over the past year. They explain how the mix of hours, overtime, and job composition drives the gap, and what it signals about employers' behavior in a tight labor market. With unemployment at 4.2% and job openings ticking up, they explore why companies are stretching existing…
The Staying Power of September Wage Gains
Lucas and Luna dig into a quiet shift in the 2026 labor market: wage gains are no longer led by job switchers. New data from the Atlanta Fed and the Employment Cost Index show that workers who stay put are starting to see bigger raises than those who jump. They unpack why that's happening — from falling quits rates to employers hoarding talent — and what it means for the Fed's inflation fight. They also touch on the gap between average hourly earnings and median weekly pay, and why the labor…
Why the Economy Is Growing at 1.5% but the Labor Market Refuses to Quit
In this episode of The Labor Market Podcast with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna break down the paradox of a slowing economy – GDP growth dropped to just 1.5% in Q2 2026 – and a labor market that still looks tight, with unemployment at 4.2% and average hourly earnings rising. They explore why jobless claims are creeping up even as overall hiring holds, and what the Fed's divided stance means for workers and investors. A thoughtful conversation about the resilience and fragility of the current labor…
Why Employers Are Hoarding Workers in 2026
Jobless claims are near historic lows, but hiring is barely budging. In June, the economy added just 57,000 jobs. Meanwhile, the JOLTS report shows job openings inching up to 7.59 million, yet hires are declining. Lucas and Luna explore the phenomenon of labor hoarding: why companies are reluctant to fire workers but also hesitant to hire new ones. With the Fed divided over rate cuts and trade policy adding uncertainty, firms are prioritizing retention over expansion. That keeps wage growth…
Why Jobless Claims Plunged 22,000 in One Week
Lucas and Luna dissect the surprising plunge in initial jobless claims to 187,000 — a 22,000 drop from the prior week. They explore possible reasons: seasonal quirks, genuine labor tightness, or statistical noise. With the unemployment rate at 4.2% and wage growth tepid, they connect the dots to import price pressures and the Fed's policy dilemma. Learn why this week's number matters more than the record low itself. #LaborMarket #Economics #JoblessClaims #Unemployment #WageGrowth…
Why 111,000 Workers Left the Labor Force in June
The unemployment rate fell to 4.2% in June, but only 57,000 jobs were added. Hosts Lucas and Luna crunch the numbers and find that over 111,000 workers dropped out of the labor force entirely. They explore why people are leaving despite a seemingly strong job market: from aging demographics and childcare challenges to the chilling effect of tariff uncertainty on job search. Plus, what this exodus means for the Federal Reserve's next move and whether it's a temporary blip or a structural shift.…
Why the Unemployment Rate Fell Even as Hiring Slowed
In June 2026, the economy added only 57,000 jobs, the smallest monthly gain in over a year. Yet the unemployment rate ticked down from 4.3% to 4.2%. This episode unpacks the paradox by comparing the household and establishment surveys, exploring the role of a shrinking labor force, and examining what record-low jobless claims (187,000) and still-elevated job openings (7.6 million) reveal about a labor market that is low-churn but not booming. We also discuss how tariff uncertainty and rising…
Why Weekly Pay Is Outpacing Hourly Wages in 2026
In this episode of The Labor Market Podcast, Lucas and Luna explore a surprising trend: weekly paychecks are growing faster than hourly wages. Using the latest data—unemployment at 4.2%, jobless claims at 187,000, and the Employment Cost Index—they explain how a tight labor market is pushing employers to extend hours rather than hire. They discuss the implications for worker burnout, inflation, and the Federal Reserve's next move. Recorded July 28, 2026. #WeeklyPay #HourlyWages #LaborMarket…
Why Workers Aren't Quitting Despite Record-Low Layoffs
Initial jobless claims hit 187,000 — a generational low. But the quits rate has dropped by nearly a quarter from its 2022 peak. In this episode, Lucas and Luna explore why workers are staying put, even as job openings remain elevated. The answer lies in a mismatch between openings and hires, modest wage growth, and a shift in worker confidence. Drawing on JOLTS data, hourly earnings trends, and recent NFIB survey findings, they unpack what declining quits mean for the broader labor market — and…
What 187000 Jobless Claims Really Mean for the Labor Market
Initial jobless claims have fallen to 187,000, the lowest level in over fifty years. But the labor market isn't booming—hiring is sluggish and wage growth remains modest. In this episode, Lucas and Luna explore the disconnect between record-low layoffs and a tepid labor market. They examine why firms are hoarding workers rather than expanding, how surging import prices from China are eroding real wages, and what the Employment Cost Index reveals about wage pressures. With the unemployment rate…
The Hidden Story Behind Record-Low Jobless Claims
Initial jobless claims dropped to 187,000 in mid-July 2026, the lowest level in over five decades. But host Lucas and Luna dig into why this isn't a sign of a booming labor market. Instead, they argue that workers are staying put—quits are falling, hiring is cooling, and dynamism is draining from the job market. Using the latest JOLTS data showing job openings rising while hires stall, they connect the dots to wage growth that refuses to accelerate. A conversation about what low claims really…
Why June Added Only 57,000 Jobs Despite Record-Low Layoffs
In this episode of The Labor Market Podcast, Lucas and Luna dissect the June 2026 jobs report, which showed a puzzlingly weak gain of just 57,000 nonfarm payrolls, even as the unemployment rate dropped to 4.2% and initial jobless claims hit 187,000 — the lowest in decades. They explore why hiring is stalling despite near-record-low layoffs, examining factors such as rising import prices from China (highest since 2008), new tariff uncertainty, and structural mismatches. The conversation also…
Why Record-Low Jobless Claims Aren't Boosting Wages
Initial jobless claims just fell to 187,000 — the lowest level in decades. The unemployment rate is down to 4.2%. By traditional measures, the labor market is tighter than a drum. Yet wage growth remains stubbornly modest, with average hourly earnings rising only 0.2% in the latest month and the Employment Cost Index barely budging. Lucas and Luna dig into why the classic relationship between low unemployment and accelerating wages has weakened. They explore the shift in who's filing claims…
How the World Cup Distorted Restaurant Hiring in June
Restaurants added 35,000 jobs in June, but a big chunk was World Cup-driven. With initial jobless claims plunging to 187,000 and the unemployment rate at 4.2%, the labor market looks tight. Yet the Fed's Beige Book warns of soft consumer spending outside the tournament. Lucas and Luna examine how event-driven hiring masks a cautious hiring backdrop, with flat hires despite high job openings, and import prices (goods from China at highest since 2008) squeezing margins. They also explore what…
Why Older Workers Are Staying Put Despite Record Hiring
The labor market in July 2026 is remarkably strong—unemployment at 4.2%, initial jobless claims down to 187,000, and hiring still positive. But one group is conspicuously sitting out the churn: workers over 55. Their quit rate has dropped to historic lows, even as job openings rise. Lucas and Luna dig into the data behind the 'gray stay,' from pension lock-in and healthcare costs to age discrimination fears. They examine whether this is a rational choice or a structural drag on mobility, and…
Why Restaurant Hiring Spikes Are Not a Consumer Comeback
Lucas and Luna examine the surprising jump in restaurant and bar hiring reported in the Fed's July 2026 Beige Book, tied to the World Cup boost. They ask whether this spike is a genuine consumer revival or a sugar high that masks deeper cracks in household spending. With credit card delinquencies rising and savings depleted, they argue that the hospitality hiring surge may be the last gasp of pandemic-era stimulus effects, not a signal of a healthy economy. They also look at what import price…
Why Temporary Help Is Vanishing in a Strong Job Market
The labor market is adding jobs and unemployment is falling, yet temporary help employment has dropped for nine straight months. In this episode, Lucas and Luna examine the growing disconnect between temp help and the broader economy, using the latest JOLTS and payroll data from July 2026. They explore why employers are hesitant to convert temp workers to permanent roles, how regulatory uncertainty and rising benefit costs are reshaping staffing strategies, and what this trend signals about the…
Why College Degrees Are Losing Their Wage Premium in 2026
Lucas and Luna examine a surprising trend in the July 2026 labor market: the wage premium for college graduates is shrinking. Despite a strong job market with unemployment at 4.2% and rising average hourly earnings, data from the Employment Cost Index shows that wages for non-college workers are catching up. The hosts explore why—pointing to tight labor supply, shifts in job matching, and the role of import price pressures. They discuss how sectors like manufacturing and logistics are bidding…
What Falling Jobless Claims Tell Us About Labor Market Friction in 2026
Initial jobless claims dropped to 208,000 in mid-July 2026 — one of the lowest readings in a cycle that already looks historically tight. Lucas and Luna unpack what that number actually means: is it all layoffs staying low, or is there something deeper about worker mobility and employer hoarding? They walk through the claims data alongside the JOLTS job openings uptick to 7.59 million, and question whether falling claims might partly reflect discouraged workers not filing at all. This episode…
Why Job Openings Are Rising While Hiring Slows
The labor market is sending mixed signals: job openings rose to 7.594 million in May 2026, up from 7.585 million the month before, yet hiring hasn't kept pace. Lucas and Luna unpack the disconnect, focusing on the Beveridge curve shift and what it means for workers. They discuss why the ratio of unemployed workers per job opening remains historically low at 0.8, and whether the Fed can take comfort in the JOLTS data. Drawing on the latest economic indicators, including June's 158.984 million…
Why the Employment Cost Index Is the Fed's Best Wage Signal in 2026
The Employment Cost Index (ECI) is often called the 'gold standard' of wage measures—and in mid-2026, it's sending a nuanced signal. While average hourly earnings show wages creeping up to $37.60, the ECI—which hit 177.5 in Q1—captures the full cost of labor including benefits and bonuses. Lucas and Luna break down why the Fed watches this index more closely than the headline wage numbers, how it's behaving differently in 2026 compared to previous cycles, and what it means for workers who…
Why Import Prices Are Squeezing Workers in Strong Labor Market
Episode 126 of The Labor Market Podcast examines a surprising disconnect: import prices just posted their biggest gain since 2008, driven by surging costs of Chinese goods. Lucas and Luna explore how this import-price spike is quietly eating into workers' wage gains, even as the labor market remains historically tight. With unemployment at 4.2 percent and hourly earnings up 2.4 percent year-over-year, real purchasing power is shrinking for many. The hosts drill into specific data—import prices…
Why Part-Time Workers Are Getting Left Behind in 2026
Lucas and Luna examine a surprising trend in the current labor market: while full-time employment and wages are growing, part-time workers are seeing stagnant hours and slower wage gains. They break down the data from the June 2026 jobs report, including the drop in the unemployment rate to 4.2% and the rise in average hourly earnings to $37.60. The discussion focuses on why involuntary part-time work remains elevated and what this means for the broader economy, with references to the latest…
Why Disability Insurance Claims Are Surging in a Strong Job Market
Amid a strong job market with 4.2% unemployment and rising wages, applications for federal disability insurance have jumped 12% year-over-year. Lucas and Luna explore why more workers are leaving the labor force through disability programs even as employers scramble to hire. They look at the aging workforce, rising chronic health conditions, and structural shifts in the economy that make disability a de facto early retirement plan. The episode centers on Social Security Disability Insurance…
Why Import Prices Are Flashing a Warning for Wage Growth
On this episode of The Labor Market Podcast, Lucas and Luna explore the surprising impact of rising import prices on American workers' real wages. While nominal wages are up 3.1 percent year-over-year, import prices from China hit their highest level since 2008, eroding purchasing power. The hosts dig into the June 2026 CPI and average hourly earnings data to uncover a growing gap between what workers earn and what they can actually buy. They also examine how the quits rate is stalling as…
Why Temp Workers Are Stuck in a No-Hire Trap
In this episode of The Labor Market Podcast, Lucas and Luna examine a troubling trend: temp-help employment has been shrinking even as the broader job market adds jobs. Using fresh June 2026 data showing nonfarm payrolls rising to 158,984,000 while temp jobs continue to decline, they explore why companies are keeping temporary workers temporary. They discuss the rise of 'perma-temping'—workers stuck in temp roles for years without benefits or a path to permanent employment—and what it signals…
Why College Grads Are Taking Non-College Jobs in 2026
In this episode of The Labor Market Podcast, Lucas and Luna explore a surprising trend: nearly a third of recent college graduates are working in jobs that don't require a degree. They dig into new data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York showing that underemployment for young graduates has hit 33 percent. Why is this happening now, especially with unemployment at 4.2 percent? Lucas connects the dots to the cooling of white-collar hiring in tech and finance, while Luna points to the surge…
Why Wages Are Rising Faster for the Bottom 10 Percent
In this episode of The Labor Market Podcast, Lucas and Luna explore a surprising trend in the June 2026 jobs report: wage growth at the bottom of the income distribution is outpacing gains for higher earners. Average hourly earnings rose to $37.60, but the real story is in the composition. Lucas breaks down how minimum wage increases in 22 states, tight labor markets for low-wage service workers, and a 4.2 percent unemployment rate are compressing the wage distribution. Luna questions whether…
Why Temp Jobs Are Vanishing in a Hot Labor Market
The labor market is adding jobs, unemployment is low, and job openings are ticking up. Yet temporary help employment has been falling for months. In this episode, Lucas and Luna dig into the paradox. They look at the latest JOLTS data showing 7.6 million openings alongside a steady decline in temp staffing. They explore why employers are skipping the try-before-you-buy model in 2026: rising regulatory costs, a tight labor pool that makes conversion expensive, and a shift toward direct hiring…
Why Temp Jobs Are Vanishing in a Hot Labor Market
In Episode 118 of The Labor Market Podcast, Lucas and Luna examine the puzzling collapse of temporary help employment even as the overall job market remains historically tight. With June 2026 nonfarm payrolls at nearly 159 million and unemployment dipping to 4.2%, temp jobs have been shrinking for months—a pattern that often signals a broader slowdown ahead. Lucas breaks down the latest data, including a steep drop in temp help since early 2025, and explains why employers are shifting away from…
How Initial Jobless Claims Signal a Tight Labor Market
In this episode, Lucas and Luna dig into the latest initial jobless claims data — 215,000 for the week of July 4, 2026, down from 217,000 — and what it reveals about the current labor market. They explore why claims remain near historic lows despite slowing hiring, a falling quit rate, and a two-speed economy. The hosts discuss the concept of the 'buffer' in the labor market, how layoff dynamics differ from hiring dynamics, and whether the low claims number is a sign of strength or a hidden…
Why Temp Help Is Collapsing Despite a Strong Job Market
Episode 116 of The Labor Market Podcast digs into a quiet but telling signal: temporary help employment has been shrinking for months even as overall payrolls grow. Lucas and Luna explore why the temp staffing industry—a classic leading indicator—is flashing a warning about the quality of hiring in July 2026. They connect the trend to falling quit rates, stagnant median weekly earnings, and a puzzling drop in wholesale prices. Is the labor market really as strong as the headline numbers…
Why the Quit Rate Tells Us Workers Are Stuck in Place
Episode 115 of The Labor Market Podcast with Fexingo examines why the quit rate has fallen to 2.1 percent even as job openings remain near 7.6 million. Lucas and Luna dig into the disconnect between open roles and workers' reluctance to leave their current jobs, using fresh June 2026 data on wage growth for stayers versus switchers. They explore how economic uncertainty, slowing wage gains for job changers, and a tight but cautious labor market are trapping workers in place. The episode also…
Staying Put vs Switching Jobs The Wage Gap in July 2026
In this episode of The Labor Market Podcast with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna explore why the wage premium for switching jobs has shrunk dramatically in 2026. With average hourly earnings up just 0.2% month over month to $37.60 in June, and job openings holding steady near 7.6 million, the gap between job switchers and stayers has narrowed to its smallest since 2021. Lucas breaks down new data from the Atlanta Fed wage tracker showing switchers now earn only 4.5% more than stayers, down from a peak…
Why More Workers Are Quitting Without a New Job Lined Up
In this episode of The Labor Market Podcast, Lucas and Luna explore a surprising trend in the June 2026 jobs report: the quits rate is holding steady near pre-pandemic lows, but a growing share of quitters are leaving without another job lined up. Using Bureau of Labor Statistics data on reason for unemployment, they show that the share of unemployed who quit their last job has risen to 15.6 percent, versus 12.8 percent a year ago. Lucas connects this to the erosion of worker bargaining power…
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