Episodes
The Hidden Cost of AI Energy Consumption
We dig into the surprising energy footprint of modern data centers and why grid capacity is becoming the new bottleneck for growth. With real GDP slowing to one point five percent while tech demand soars, we explore how power availability, not just capital, is reshaping industrial policy. Featuring insights on nuclear restarts and transmission upgrades, this episode breaks down the physical limits of digital expansion. #EnergyTransition #DataCenterGrowth #GridCapacity #NuclearPower…
Why The Fed Funds Rate Is Stuck At 3.63 Percent
With the federal funds rate holding steady at 3.63 percent in late August, markets are pricing in a pause that defies recent inflation readings. We dig into why the FOMC is waiting for clearer signals despite core PCE sticking above three percent and job openings rising to 7,271 thousand. This episode explores the disconnect between sticky service-sector prices and cooling labor demand, asking whether the central bank is being too cautious as global trade dynamics shift. We examine how this…
Shrinking Global Trade Is Reshaping Supply Chains
Global trade is slowing, and the numbers are stark: world trade volume growth has dropped to near zero, and shipping costs have spiked. In this episode, Lucas and Luna unpack the forces behind the slowdown—from the shift to services to geopolitical fragmentation and the rise of 'friendshoring.' They zero in on the surprising 2026 data: the Baltic Dry Index is down 30 percent, and container freight rates are up 40 percent year-over-year. What does this mean for inflation, for companies like…
The Fed's Quiet Shift and What It Means for Your Wallet
In this episode of The Economic Forecast Podcast, Lucas and Luna dig into the Federal Reserve's latest communications and what they signal for inflation, interest rates, and your personal finances. With Fed Chairman Warsh calling for a 'quieter' central bank and Cleveland Fed President Hammack saying 'now is the time to act' on rates, the hosts parse the hawkish undertones against a mixed economic backdrop: core PCE inflation stuck at 3.3% annually, a cooling job market with unemployment at…
Why Core PCE Stuck Above Three Percent
The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, core PCE, rose 3.3 percent annually in July, well above the 2 percent target. Lucas and Luna dig into why inflation is proving stubborn, what it means for Fed policy, and why the recent drop in the VIX might be premature. They examine the composition of the rise, the role of housing and services, and the implications for rate cuts this fall. If you've been wondering whether the Fed's next move is a cut or a hike, this episode offers a clear-eyed…
Why Inflation Expectations Are Stuck Above Target
Core PCE inflation has been stuck above 3 percent for months, and the Federal Reserve is starting to talk about acting. In this episode, Lucas and Luna dig into the gap between the Fed's 2 percent goal and the 2.33 percent ten-year breakeven rate, a number that suggests bond traders don't fully believe the central bank's narrative. They explore what a quietly hawkish Fed under Chairman Warsh could mean for rate policy, the Treasury market, and the broader economy. With the ten-year yield at…
Why Core PCE Stuck Above Three Percent
The Fed's preferred inflation gauge, core PCE, rose 3.3 percent annually in July — well above the central bank's target. In this episode, Lucas and Luna unpack why core inflation is proving so sticky, even as headline CPI cools and the labor market softens. They look at the role of housing costs, services inflation, and the surprising resilience of consumer spending. With the Fed's Hammack signaling it's 'time to act' on rates, they discuss what this means for the economy and markets. Plus…
The Quiet Power of a 130 Billion Dollar Treasury Fund
The Treasury General Account, or TGA, is the government's main checking account, and it has ballooned to nearly $1 trillion. In this episode, Lucas and Luna unpack what that pile of cash means for markets, from bank reserves to the Fed's balance sheet, and why Treasury Secretary Bessent's idea to use it for bond buybacks has Stanley Druckenmiller skeptical. They explain the plumbing of the TGA, the 2019 repo spike that made everyone pay attention, and the political tightrope of tapping it…
Treasury Buybacks and the Fight Over Bessent's Bond Plan
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is pushing a plan to buy back government bonds, and markets are split. On one side, the administration sees buybacks as a way to manage the debt and calm inflation fears. On the other, skeptics like Stanley Druckenmiller argue that buying bonds with borrowed money only adds fuel to the fire. We dig into the mechanics of the Treasury's buyback program, the role of the Treasury General Account, and why the yield curve has been un-inverting as the ten-year hovers…
Can Treasury Buybacks Quiet Inflation Fears
The Treasury is floating bond buybacks as a way to calm markets, but the plan is stirring inflation worries. In this episode, Lucas and Luna dig into Secretary Bessent's buyback gambit: why the Treasury General Account could supply nearly a trillion dollars, what buying back long-dated debt would mean for the yield curve, and why some economists hear an echo of quantitative easing. They also connect the move to today's data—real GDP growth slowing to 1.5 percent, core CPI still creeping up, and…
Treasury Buybacks and the Deficit Debate
In this episode of The Economic Forecast Podcast, Lucas and Luna dig into Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's controversial bond buyback program and whether it can calm markets without reigniting inflation. They unpack the $4 billion operation, the $40 trillion debt milestone, and why the 10-year Treasury yield at 4.74 percent signals persistent fiscal anxiety. Along the way, they discuss the disconnect between strong nominal GDP and slowing real growth, and what that means for the Fed's next…
What the Yield Curve Uninversion Got Wrong
The yield curve uninverted in June 2026, and recession calls followed. But three months later, the US economy is still growing — real GDP is up 1.5 percent, unemployment is down to 4.1 percent, and jobless claims have fallen to 206,000. Lucas and Luna dig into why this time might be different: the curve's predictive power may have broken because of Fed balance sheet policy, global demand for Treasuries, and the 'higher for longer' regime. They also look at what the curve is saying now, and what…
Why the 40 Trillion Debt Is a Political Shell Game
The U.S. national debt just crossed $40 trillion, a figure that has more than doubled in a decade. But in this episode, Lucas and Luna dig into what that number actually means for the economy and your portfolio. They break down why the debt-to-GDP ratio is the metric that matters, how the recent yield curve moves reflect bond market anxiety, and whether Treasury Secretary Bessent's buyback plan can calm things down. With the federal funds rate holding at 3.63 percent and core inflation still…
Why the 40 Trillion Debt Ceiling Is a Political Shell Game
The U.S. national debt just crossed $40 trillion, more than doubling in a decade. But Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent insists the deficit has peaked. In this episode, Lucas and Luna break down why the debt ceiling is less about arithmetic and more about political theater. They explain how Bessent's proposed Treasury buybacks could actually reduce the government's borrowing costs by buying back older, higher-coupon bonds — a move that might save billions but won't dent the $40 trillion pile.…
Why the Yield Curve Uninversion Is a Recession Signal Again
The yield curve has been uninverting for months, but this time the signal is different. Lucas and Luna break down why the 2s10s spread turning positive is now flashing red, how the Fed's rate path and the $40 trillion debt load shift the meaning, and what it means for your portfolio. They dig into the latest data—real GDP growth at 1.5 percent, jobless claims creeping to 209,000—and explain why the bond market might be ahead of the equity market. If you're wondering whether the recession call…
How Real Wages Are Finally Beating Inflation
In this episode of The Economic Forecast Podcast, Lucas and Luna examine a rare bright spot in the current macro landscape: real wages are finally growing faster than inflation. With average hourly earnings up to $37.60 and core PCE at 2.3%, the purchasing power of the typical worker is quietly improving. They unpack the labor market's cooling-without-breaking dynamic, the sticky services inflation that still looms, and what this means for consumer spending and the Fed's next move. Tune in for…
How the Small-Cap Rally Is Rewriting the Playbook
Small caps are outperforming the big indices, and the move is not about rate cuts or a soft landing. In this episode, Lucas and Luna break down what's actually driving the Russell 2000's recent strength — from a quieter earnings season to the surprising math of the July CPI report. They look at why the small-cap rally has room to run even as the VIX sits near record lows, and what the divergence between the Dow and the Nasdaq tells you about where the market is heading. With real numbers — the…
Why Small Caps Are Outperforming While the VIX Crashes
In this episode of The Economic Forecast Podcast, Lucas and Luna unpack a market signal that's been flying under the radar: while the S&P 500 and the Dow have diverged, small-cap stocks have quietly surged, and the VIX has dropped to levels not seen in months. With the Russell 2000 up 1.7% on the week and the Dow down 0.5%, Lucas explains what this rotation says about investor appetite for risk and the health of the broader economy. The hosts dig into the disconnect between cooling inflation…
Why the July Budget Deficit Surge Matters for Markets
In this episode of The Economic Forecast Podcast, Lucas and Luna dive into the startling jump in the U.S. budget deficit for July 2026—the highest since March 2021. They unpack what's driving the surge: a mix of higher interest costs on the national debt, slower revenue growth, and the lingering effects of recent fiscal policy. With the deficit widening even as the economy shows signs of cooling, they explore the implications for Treasury yields, the Fed's rate path, and your portfolio. Along…
Why the VIX Is Falling While Stocks Drift Higher
Stocks are grinding higher, the VIX is sliding, and the classic fear gauge is flashing calm. But beneath the surface, there's a subtle shift in how the market is pricing uncertainty — one that says more about the Fed's next move than the headlines suggest. Lucas and Luna unpack the August 2026 data: the S&P 500 sitting just shy of 7,800, the VIX down nearly 8% on the week, and a yield curve that's doing something interesting. They look at what falling volatility really measures, why the VIX can…
How the July CPI Report Hides a Disinflationary Core
The July CPI report landed on August 12 with a headline number that looked hot, but underneath, the core is telling a different story. In this episode of The Economic Forecast Podcast, Lucas and Luna drill into the specific components that are masking disinflation—from shelter costs to used car prices—and what that means for the Fed's next move. They dissect the latest data, including a flat wholesale price index and a cooling labor market, to argue that the inflation scare is overblown. If…
Why the July CPI Report Hides a Disinflationary Core
The July CPI report showed headline inflation at 3.4 percent, but core inflation is actually cooling. In this episode, Lucas and Luna dissect the numbers: why a 0.1 percent monthly rise masks a softer trend, how the 2.27 percent ten-year breakeven signals falling expectations, and what the 4.1 percent unemployment rate plus cooling job openings mean for the Fed. They explain why the market's calm response makes sense and why the 'stagflation' narrative is overblown. If you want to understand…
Why the July Jobs Report Might Be Misleading
In this episode of The Economic Forecast Podcast, Lucas and Luna dig into the surprising July jobs report, which showed a loss of 23,000 jobs despite the unemployment rate dropping to 4.1 percent. They unpack the divergence between the headline payroll number and the household survey, explore why jobless claims remain low, and consider what this means for the Federal Reserve's next move. With core inflation still sticky and the labor market showing cracks, they discuss whether the economy is…
Why the Yield Curve Uninversion Is a Recession Signal Again
Lucas and Luna dig into the yield curve's latest move—the ten-year Treasury yield now sits 54 basis points above the two-year, the widest gap since 2022. After two years of inversion, the curve's re-steepening is historically a late-cycle warning. They unpack why this time the signal may be pointing to a mild slowdown rather than a crash, and what it means for the Fed's next moves and your portfolio. With real GDP growth cooling to 1.5 percent annualized and job openings down to 7.36 million…
Why Jobless Claims Below 200000 Mask a Cooling Labor Market
In this milestone episode, Lucas and Luna dig into the surprising disconnect between a headline unemployment rate of 4.1 percent and the latest July jobs report, which showed a loss of 23,000 jobs. They explore why initial jobless claims, hovering near 199,000, might be giving a false sense of security, and how the drop in job openings to 7.3 million signals a quieter, but real, slowdown. Using the recent VIX drop to 14.9 and a 3 percent Nasdaq gain, they explain why markets are cheering while…
Why the Labor Market Is Cooling Without Breaking
In this episode of The Economic Forecast Podcast, Lucas and Luna dissect the surprising July jobs report, where the U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs but the unemployment rate fell to 4.1 percent. They explore what this paradox means for the Federal Reserve's next move, the mixed signals from job openings and wage growth, and why markets seem to be taking the news in stride. If you've been puzzled by conflicting economic headlines, this conversation will help you see the underlying trends. Tune in…
Why the Labor Market Is Cooling Without Breaking
The July jobs report showed the U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23,000 jobs, while the unemployment rate ticked down to 4.1 percent. Lucas and Luna dig into what's really happening beneath the surface: a labor market that's cooling but not cracking. They explore why payrolls can shrink while unemployment falls, what the drop in job openings to 7.36 million means for workers, and why wage growth holding at $37.60 an hour might be the quiet signal that matters. They also connect the dots to the…
Why Core PCE Is Rising While CPI Cools
In this episode of The Economic Forecast Podcast, Lucas and Luna dig into a subtle but crucial divergence: the core PCE price index ticked up in June while the headline CPI fell. Is this a statistical quirk or a warning sign? They explore how different weighting schemes and data sources—rent, healthcare, and financial services—create this split, and what it means for the Fed's inflation target. With the central bank holding rates steady and inflation expectations anchored, the hosts weigh…
Why the Yield Curve Uninversion Is a Recession Signal Again
In this episode, Lucas and Luna unpack why the recent yield curve uninversion is flashing a recession warning. With the 10-year Treasury yield at 4.62% and the 2-year at 4.32%, the spread has turned positive for the first time in over two years. Historically, uninversion has preceded every recession since 1970, with an average lag of about 12 months. The hosts discuss what this signal means for the Fed's next moves, why markets are betting on a soft landing, and what it could mean for your…
What a Divided Fed Means for Your Portfolio
The Federal Reserve is split over what to do next, and that split is showing up in the bond market, the stock market, and the inflation numbers. Lucas and Luna dig into the latest data: the VIX is down 20% in five days, the S&P 500 is near 7,700, and the 10-year Treasury yield is at 4.63%. But beneath the calm, the Fed's internal debate is sharpening. With real GDP growth cooling to 1.5% and core PCE still at 3.3%, investors are caught between two narratives. This episode explains why a divided…
Why Markets Ignore the Inflation Scare
In this episode, Lucas and Luna dig into a peculiar disconnect: markets are rallying—S&P 500 up 2.3% in five days, VIX down 13%—while a manufacturing survey shows inflation worries 'worse than pandemic era.' They unpack why the recent spike in long-term yields (10-year at 4.69%) and the 10-year breakeven at 2.28% are not alarming markets, and what the flat Fed funds rate at 3.63% means for the Fed's 'divided' stance. They also explore the 1.5% Q2 GDP print and June core CPI at 3.3%—why that's…
Why the Core CPI Slowdown Is Unfinished Business
In this episode of The Economic Forecast Podcast, Lucas and Luna dig into the latest inflation data and why the core CPI slowdown might be a false dawn. With core CPI at 3.3 percent and the Fed's preferred PCE measure still above target, they examine the divergence between headline and core numbers, the impact of services inflation and housing costs, and what it means for future Fed policy. They also discuss how markets are reacting, with the VIX down 14 percent over five days, and parse the…
The Quiet Disinflation Nobody Is Talking About
Core inflation is cooling, the Fed is on hold, and markets are pricing in a soft landing. But beneath the surface, a quieter force is reshaping the economy: import prices are still rising, factory activity is slowing, and the yield curve is flashing mixed signals. In this episode, Lucas and Luna dig into the latest CPI and core PCE data, the surprise tightening from Singapore's central bank, and what the diverging signals mean for your portfolio. They also unpack the real story behind the VIX…
Why the Economy Is Entering a Mild Stagflation Pattern
With Q2 GDP slowing to 1.5% and core inflation stuck at 3.3%, the U.S. economy is flashing stagflation signals. Lucas and Luna break down the data—rising breakeven inflation, a divided Fed, and a still-tight labor market—and explore what this means for investors and consumers. Is this the new normal, or a temporary soft patch? They also discuss the Fed's dilemma: cut rates to support growth or hold the line on prices. #Stagflation #GDP #Inflation #FederalReserve #BondMarket #LaborMarket…
Why Inflation Expectations Are Rising Even as Core CPI Flattens
Core CPI barely budged last month, but the 10-year breakeven inflation rate just ticked up to 2.26%—a subtle divergence that has the Fed split. Lucas and Luna unpack what this means for rate policy, markets, and the broader economic outlook. With real GDP growing at 2.1% and jobless claims at 187,000, the economy looks solid, but bond traders are hedging for higher future inflation. Kevin Warsh's recent speech adds fuel to the debate. Could the next move be a cut—or a hike? #Inflation #CoreCPI…
Why the VIX Is Spiking as the Dow and Nasdaq Diverge
The S&P 500 is down over 1% in the past five days, but the Nasdaq has dropped nearly 3% while the Dow barely budged. Meanwhile the VIX, the market's fear gauge, has jumped above 20 for the first time in months. In this episode of The Economic Forecast Podcast, Lucas and Luna explore what's driving the divergence: rising oil prices, fresh tariffs on China, and a surprise tightening move from Singapore. They unpack why import prices from China are at their highest since 2008, how the yield curve…
Why Long-Term Yields Are Rising While the Fed Holds Steady
The yield on the 10-year Treasury has climbed to 4.60% even as the Federal Reserve keeps the funds rate at 3.63% and inflation cools. In this episode, Lucas and Luna examine the forces behind the bond market's divergence: the rising term premium, fiscal concerns, and global central bank tightening. They discuss what higher long-term yields mean for mortgage rates, corporate borrowing, and the broader economy, and whether the Fed's next move might be influenced by the bond market rather than…
Why Tariffs Are Driving a Wedge Between the Dow and the S&P
This week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1% to 52,747 while the S&P 500 fell 0.9% and the Nasdaq dropped 3.2%. Lucas and Luna explore the growing divergence between traditional industrial stocks and tech-heavy indexes. They connect the shift to President Trump's new global tariff, which has boosted domestic-oriented companies but hit multinational tech firms reliant on global supply chains. With import prices from China at their highest since 2008 and jobless claims plunging to 187,000…
Singapore Tightening Signals Global Inflation Shift
Singapore's surprise monetary policy tightening has jolted markets, even as US headline CPI falls. Lucas and Luna dissect the global divergence: strong US growth with sticky core PCE, import prices from China at 2008 highs, and the Fed stuck at 3.63%. With the yield curve steepening and VIX spiking, they explore whether the next move is a cut or a hike—and what Singapore's move says about the post-pandemic inflation phase. #Singapore #MonetaryPolicy #Inflation #FederalReserve #InterestRates…
Why Markets Are Selling Off Despite a Strong Jobs Market
The Nasdaq just dropped 3.5% in five days and the VIX jumped above 18, even as jobless claims fell to 187,000 and unemployment sits at 4.2%. Lucas and Luna explore the growing disconnect between resilient labor data and rising market anxiety. They break down what's driving the sell-off—from sticky core PCE and falling breakeven inflation to global headwinds like Singapore's surprise tightening and rising import costs from China. Plus, why the bond market's message is different from the stock…
Why Import Prices Are Rising While Consumer Inflation Falls
In this episode of The Economic Forecast Podcast, Lucas and Luna untangle a puzzling divergence in today's economic data. Import prices, especially from China, surged to their highest level since 2008, driven by new Trump tariffs and supply chain costs. Yet the June CPI fell to 332.6, and core PCE barely moved. Meanwhile, jobless claims dropped to 187,000, signaling a still-tight labor market, and the Fed keeps the funds rate at 3.63%. Lucas breaks down why tariffs are boosting goods costs…
Why Jobless Claims Below 187000 Are the New Normal
The U.S. labor market just hit a historic milestone: initial jobless claims fell to 187,000, the lowest level in over 50 years. In this episode, Lucas and Luna explore what's driving this extreme tightness, from demographic shifts to corporate hiring strategies. They also examine how the Fed is interpreting this data alongside falling CPI and rising wage growth, and what it means for the soft-landing narrative. With the 10-year breakeven inflation rate dropping to 2.26%, the hosts debate…
Why Markets Bet on Lower Inflation While the Economy Booms
This episode of The Economic Forecast Podcast unpacks a rare disconnect in financial markets: the 10-year breakeven inflation rate has fallen to 2.26 percent, its lowest in months, signaling that investors expect inflation to keep cooling. Yet the labor market is red-hot—initial jobless claims just dropped to 187,000—and the Fed holds rates at 3.63 percent. Lucas and Luna explore what's driving falling inflation expectations, why real yields are rising, and whether the bond market is smarter…
The Jobs Market Is Roaring While Inflation Quietly Slips Away
In this episode of The Economic Forecast Podcast, Lucas and Luna dig into a rare but fragile alignment: the labor market is tightening even as inflation cools. Initial jobless claims plunged to 187,000 in mid-July, the lowest level in years, while the unemployment rate dipped to 4.2%. At the same time, headline CPI fell to 332.6 in June, and core CPI held flat at 336.1. The 10-year breakeven inflation rate dropped to 2.26%, suggesting markets believe the Fed has inflation under control. But…
Why Import Prices Are Rising Despite Falling CPI
In this episode of The Economic Forecast Podcast, Lucas and Luna unpack a curious disconnect in today's economy: import prices just posted their biggest annual gain since 2008, driven by surging costs of goods from China, while the overall CPI is falling. Using live data from July 24, 2026, they explore how tariff policy, supply chain restructuring, and shifting trade flows are creating this split. Lucas walks through the specific numbers — CPI at 332.6, down from 333.98, versus import prices…
Why the Fed Funds Rate Is Flat While the Rest of the Economy Shifts
The Fed Funds rate has been stuck at 3.63% since June, but underneath that flat line, the economy is moving fast. Core CPI is finally cooling, wholesale prices surprised to the downside, and the yield curve is steepening in a way that usually signals recession. Lucas and Luna dig into the disconnect between a static Fed and a dynamic economy. They explore why the Fed is comfortable holding steady, how falling goods prices are masking sticky services inflation, and what the steepening yield…
Why Home Renovation Spending Is Crashing Even as Home Prices Rise
New data from the Joint Center for Housing Studies shows spending on home improvements and repairs in the U.S. dropped 8.3% in the second quarter of 2026 compared to a year ago, the steepest decline since 2010. Lucas and Luna dig into why homeowners are pulling back on renovations despite record home equity—and what that signals about consumer confidence and the broader economy. They connect the dip to higher interest rates, lingering inflation on materials, and a shift in spending priorities…
Used Car Deflation Signals Consumer Demand Collapse
In this episode of The Economic Forecast Podcast, Lucas and Luna unpack a surprising divergence in July 2026: used car prices are falling at their fastest pace in three years, even as new cars remain stubbornly expensive. The hosts dig into the data—CPI components, the Manheim Used Vehicle Index, and consumer credit trends—to explain what this tells us about household balance sheets and the broader economy. They explore how pandemic-era supply distortions, shifting interest rates, and changing…
Why the Yield Curve Uninversion Is a Recession Signal Again
The yield curve has been uninverted since late 2024, but Lucas and Luna explain why that's actually a classic recession warning — not an all-clear. With the 10-year Treasury at 4.63% and the 2-year at 4.37%, the spread is 26 basis points. Historically, every recession since the 1970s has been preceded by a curve uninversion. The hosts dissect why this time feels different — and why it might not be — using data on Fed policy, jobless claims at 208,000, and a 4.2% unemployment rate. They also…
Why Small Business Optimism Is Rising Despite Higher Treasury Yields
Episode 125 of The Economic Forecast Podcast digs into the disconnect between rising small business optimism and the creeping sell-off in long-term Treasuries. Lucas and Luna examine the NFIB optimism index—now at its highest since early 2024—alongside the ten-year yield pushing above 4.6 percent. They explore how Main Street's brighter mood may reflect a different rate sensitivity than Wall Street assumes, and what this means for the economy's trajectory into the second half of 2026. The…
Showing the latest 50 episodes. The full archive of 174 is on Apple Podcasts, Spotify and every major podcast app — or via the RSS feed above.