Episodes
The 30-Year Yield at 5.25 Percent and the New Bond Math
In this episode of The Bond Market Podcast, Lucas and Luna unpack the latest move higher in long-dated Treasury yields, with the 30-year now sitting at 5.25 percent while the 10-year hovers near 4.68 percent. They explain why this steepening curve is not just a Wall Street story, but a signal about inflation expectations, fiscal policy, and the Federal Reserve's next move. Using today's live data, they break down the widening 10-year minus 2-year spread, the surprising calm in the 3-month bill…
Why the 10-Year Treasury Yield Is the New Benchmark
On this episode of The Bond Market Podcast, Lucas and Luna examine why the 10-year Treasury yield has emerged as the most-watched bond market signal in 2026. With the 30-year yield at 5.21 percent and the 2-year at 4.15 percent, investors are leaning on the 10-year as the new anchor for everything from mortgages to corporate borrowing. Lucas traces how the 10-year's role shifted after the Fed's tightening cycle, and why its recent drop from 4.68 to 4.63 percent is drawing more attention than…
Why the 30-Year Treasury Yield Is Above 5 Percent and What It Means
In episode 160 of The Bond Market Podcast, Lucas and Luna dig into the stubbornly high 30-year Treasury yield, now at 5.26%. While the 10-year has ticked down to 4.63%, the long bond refuses to budge, leaving investors to wonder: is this the new normal? The hosts unpack the drivers—term premium, supply concerns, and the Fed's path—and explain why the long end is sending a different signal than the front end. They also examine what a 30-year yield above 5% means for mortgages, pensions, and the…
Why the 3-Month Treasury Yield Is Stuck Near 3.87 Percent
Lucas and Luna dig into the odd quiet of the 3-month Treasury bill, which is hovering around 3.87 percent even as the Fed Funds rate sits at 3.63 and the rest of the curve shows more movement. They explore what this means for money market funds, the Fed's balance sheet, and why the front end is suddenly the place to watch. With a nod to the inverted curve history and the recent steepening, they connect the dots for investors who think the short end is boring. #TreasuryYields #ThreeMonthTreasury…
Why the 30-Year Yield Is Above 5 Percent While the 2-Year Sits at 4.2
In this episode of The Bond Market Podcast, Lucas and Luna unpack a puzzle that's got fixed-income investors scratching their heads: the 30-year Treasury yield is hovering around 5.27 percent, while the 2-year yield sits at 4.20 percent. That's a steep curve, and it's sending signals about inflation, term premiums, and what the Fed might do next. Using the latest data from August 2026, they explore why the long end is so stubborn and what it means for your bond portfolio. They dig into the…
Why the 30-Year Yield Is Stuck Near 5 Percent
In this episode of The Bond Market Podcast, Lucas and Luna explore why the 30-year Treasury yield remains stubbornly near 5 percent even as the curve steepens and the front end drifts lower. They unpack the structural forces keeping long-term yields elevated: term premium, supply concerns, and the shift in investor positioning. With the 10-year at 4.70 percent and the 2-year at 4.22 percent, the hosts question whether the long end is signaling a new regime or simply an overshoot. They discuss…
Why the Long End Keeps Outperforming the Front End
In this episode of The Bond Market Podcast, Lucas and Luna explore a surprising twist in the Treasury market: while the 2-year yield has drifted up to 4.25 percent, the 30-year yield has climbed to 5.25 percent, pushing the yield curve to its steepest since 2022. They unpack the forces behind this divergence—from term premium and supply concerns to the Fed's policy stance and sticky inflation—and consider what it means for bond investors. With the 10-year yield at 4.69 percent and the curve…
Why the 30-Year Yield Is Stuck Above 5 Percent
In this episode of The Bond Market Podcast, Lucas and Luna dig into the persistent 30-year Treasury yield above 5 percent, a level that's been frustrating fixed-income investors for weeks. With the 30-year at 5.19 percent and the 10-year at 4.65 percent, the curve is steepening, but long-duration bonds are taking a hit. They discuss the structural forces keeping long yields elevated — from term premium and supply concerns to the Fed's rate path — and whether this is a signal about the economy…
Why the 30-Year Yield Is Stuck Above 5 Percent
The 30-year Treasury yield has been hovering above 5 percent for weeks, while the 10-year sits at 4.70 and the 2-year at about 3.72. In this episode, Lucas and Luna dig into why long-term yields aren't falling even as the Fed keeps rates steady and the curve steepens. They break down the role of term premium, structural demand from pension funds and foreign buyers, and how the AI infrastructure buildout—like Nvidia's latest $500 billion push with Wall Street asset managers—is adding to supply…
Why the 2-Year Yield Is Stuck Above Fed Funds
The 2-year Treasury yield sits at 4.25 percent, a full 62 basis points above the effective fed funds rate of 3.63 percent. In this episode, Lucas and Luna unpack why that gap persists even as markets price in rate cuts. They look at how the front end has become the market's battleground for Fed expectations, why the 3-month yield is drifting lower, and what the recent convergence of 2-year and 5-year yields signals. With the curve steepening and long yields staying high, the hosts explain what…
Why Long Bond Yields Stay High as the Curve Steepens
In this episode of The Bond Market Podcast, Lucas and Luna unpack why the 30-year Treasury yield remains stubbornly above 5 percent while the 2-year yield sits near 4.25 percent, even as the Federal Reserve holds rates steady. They explore the role of term premium, supply dynamics, and the market's reaction to a weak July jobs report that has traders trimming September hike bets. With the 10-year yield hovering around 4.69 percent, the hosts discuss what a steepening curve signals for the…
What the Copper Price Surge Is Telling Bond Investors
Copper just hit its highest level ever. What does that tell bond investors? In this episode, Lucas and Luna unpack the divergence between red-hot copper and a Treasury market that's pricing in weak growth. They explore how copper's dual role as a bellwether for global growth and a gauge of inflation expectations creates a puzzle for fixed-income markets. With the 10-year yield at 4.66 percent and the 3-month at 3.89, the hosts discuss what copper's record could mean for the curve, for inflation…
The 10-Year Treasury Yield Just Had Its Biggest One-Day Drop
On August 4, 2026, the 10-year Treasury yield fell from 4.70% to 4.63% in a single day — the sharpest one-day drop in months. In this episode, Lucas and Luna break down what drove that move, from a surprising Fed Governor's hawkish comments to a quiet shift in the 30-year yield, which remains above 5%. They explain why the yield curve is steepening, what the front end is telling us about rate hikes, and why bond investors are starting to see longer-dated Treasuries as a value play again. With…
Why the 30-Year Treasury Yield Is Above 5 Percent and What It Means
In this episode of The Bond Market Podcast, Lucas and Luna unpack a striking market signal: the 30-year Treasury yield has climbed above 5 percent while the 10-year sits at 4.70, widening the long-end spread to levels not seen in years. They explore what this steepening curve says about inflation expectations, fiscal policy, and the Fed's next moves. With the 3-month yield at 3.91 and the Fed funds rate at 3.63, the front end is telling a different story. Why are long-dated yields rising so…
Why the 30-Year Treasury Yield Is Eclipsing the 10-Year
The 30-year Treasury yield has climbed to 5.27 percent, its highest level in years, while the 10-year sits at 4.75. That 52-basis-point gap is the widest in over a decade, and it's reshaping how investors think about long-duration risk. In this episode, Lucas and Luna break down what's driving the long end—from term premium and foreign demand to supply concerns and the Fed's balance sheet runoff. They explain why the 30-year is no longer a sleepy corner of the bond market, how rising long…
Why the Curve Steepening Is a Real Economic Signal
In this episode of The Bond Market Podcast, Lucas and Luna unpack what the recent steepening of the Treasury yield curve actually tells us about the economy in early August 2026. With the 10-year yield at 4.68 percent and the 30-year pushing above 5.2 percent, while the 3-month bill sits at 3.82 percent, the hosts explore whether this is a sign of growth, inflation, or something else. They discuss the role of the term premium, the Fed's rate path, and why the long end might be reacting to…
Why the 30-Year Treasury Yield Is the New Signal
In this episode of The Bond Market Podcast, Lucas and Luna explore a surprising shift in the Treasury market: the 30-year yield has climbed to 5.21 percent, its highest level in over a decade, while the front end stays anchored below 4 percent. They unpack what this 'long-end repricing' means for borrowers, homeowners, and pension funds, and why some investors are starting to see opportunity in long duration. With the yield curve steepening and the Fed on hold, they discuss whether the 30-year…
Why the Front End Is the New Battleground for Bond Investors
With the 10-year Treasury yield hovering near 4.68 percent and the 2-year at 4.23 percent, the yield curve's front end has become the most talked-about corner of the fixed-income market. But what does 'front end' really mean, and why are investors suddenly obsessing over maturities of two years or less? In this episode, Lucas and Luna unpack the shifting dynamics at the short end of the curve—where the Fed's rate path, the 3-month bill at 3.82 percent, and the interest on reserve balances at…
Why the 2-Year Yield Stays 60 Basis Points Above Fed Funds
The 2-year Treasury yield is 4.26%, the Fed funds rate is 3.63% – a 63 basis-point gap that's defying rate-cut expectations. In this episode, Lucas and Luna unpack what the front-end premium means for the bond market, how it compares to the 10-year spread, and why the market is pricing in a slower easing cycle than the Fed's dot plot suggests. They look at recent yield moves, the role of term premium, and what this means for investors with short-duration portfolios. #TreasuryYields…
Why the 3-Month Treasury Yield Is Finally Breaking Below 4 Percent
For months, the 3-month Treasury bill yield hovered above the federal funds rate, signaling tight liquidity and no imminent rate cuts. But as of July 28, 2026, the 3-month yield has dropped to 3.90% — down from 3.96% a week earlier — narrowing the spread to the fed funds rate to just 27 basis points. In this episode, Lucas and Luna break down what's driving the shift: the Federal Reserve's latest meeting with three dissenting votes, a steepening yield curve that now shows a 45-basis-point gap…
What the Fed's Three Dissent Votes Mean for Bond Yields
The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady on July 29, 2026, but three voting members dissented in favor of a hike. Lucas and Luna break down the internal hawks-vs-doves dynamics and what it means for Treasury yields, the yield curve, and bond investors. With the 10-year at 4.65% and the 2-year at 4.31%, they explore why the market is pricing in cuts while the FOMC splits openly. Plus: the rising term premium, the next CPI report, and how listeners can support ad-free analysis. #FOMC #Fed…
Why the Yield Curve Turned Positive and What Happens Next
The 10-year versus 2-year Treasury yield spread has turned positive for the first time in over two years, sitting at 35 basis points as of July 29, 2026. In this episode, Lucas and Luna unpack what this shift means for the economy, drawing on historical patterns from past business cycles. They discuss whether a positive slope signals an impending recession or a soft landing, and examine current data—including the 30-year yield above 5% and the 3-month bill still above the fed funds rate. The…
How Duration Is Becoming Attractive Again in Fixed Income
In Episode 140 of The Bond Market Podcast, Lucas and Luna explore how the yield curve's return to a positive slope is reshaping bond strategies. With the 10-year Treasury yield at 4.69% and the 2-year at 4.33%, the spread of 34 basis points marks a clear shift from the deeply inverted curve of recent years. They dive into why longer-duration bonds like TLT and IEF have outperformed short-term T-bills over the past week, and what this means for investors who have been parking cash in money…
Why TIPS Are Falling Behind Nominal Treasuries in Late July 2026
In late July 2026, inflation-protected bonds (TIPS) are underperforming their nominal counterparts. The TIP ETF dropped 0.5% in five days while the long bond ETF TLT rose 0.1%. Lucas and Luna break down why the breakeven inflation rate is contracting, how real yields are rising faster than nominal yields, and what this means for investors expecting higher inflation. They also explore the role of the Fed's interest on reserve balances and the shifting term premium. A timely analysis for…
Why 2-Year and 5-Year Treasury Yields Are Converging
The spread between the 2-year and 5-year Treasury yields has collapsed to just 3 basis points, a rare flattening in the front end of the curve. In this episode, Lucas and Luna break down what this convergence signals about market expectations for the Federal Reserve, how it contrasts with the steep long end, and what it means for fixed-income investors. They tie in the Moody's warning on AI-driven credit risk and the latest data showing the 10-year yield at 4.71 percent. A focused look at the…
How Oil Prices Are Repricing Fed Rate Hike Odds
The 2-year Treasury yield has climbed to 4.37% as surging oil prices push inflation expectations higher, leading the bond market to price in two quarter-point rate hikes from the Federal Reserve before year-end. Lucas and Luna break down the connection between crude oil's rally and the short end of the yield curve, examine why the 2-year is now yielding 74 basis points above the Fed funds rate, and discuss the implications for both Treasury and corporate bond investors. With oil up roughly 15%…
How Term Premium Is Driving the Yield Curve Steepening
The yield curve is steepening, but it's not just about Fed rate hikes or recession bets. Lucas and Luna break down term premium—the extra compensation investors now demand for holding long-term Treasuries. With the 10-year yield at 4.71 percent and the 2-year at 4.37 percent, the spread of 36 basis points is widening, but much of that move comes from a revival of term premium after years of negative readings. Oil prices surging above $85 and growing federal debt are forcing bondholders to…
Why the 10-Year Treasury Yield Is 100 Basis Points Above the Fed Funds Rate
The 10-year Treasury yield sits at 4.68% while the Fed funds rate is stuck at 3.63% — a gap of over a full percentage point. In Episode 135, Lucas and Luna break down what's behind that spread: surging oil prices pushing up inflation expectations, a rising term premium driven by AI investment risk and fiscal deficits, and the market pricing in a potential rate hike. They explain why the 10-year isn't following the fed funds rate and what it means for investors. With references to the 2-year and…
How Rising Oil Prices Are Reshaping the Treasury Yield Curve
With oil prices surging and odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike rising, the Treasury market is repricing. Lucas and Luna break down how the 10-year yield climbed to 4.71%, the 2-year to 4.37%, and why the yield curve is steepening. They explore the connection between commodity inflation, Fed policy expectations, and what it means for bond investors. This episode uses live data from July 25, 2026, including the 30-year yield at 5.17% and the 3-month bill at 3.95%, to show how oil is driving the…
Why the 10-Year Yield Is Stuck at 4.70 Percent
The 10-year Treasury yield has been hovering near 4.70 percent in late July 2026, refusing to break higher or lower despite volatile oil prices and shifting rate expectations. Lucas and Luna examine why the market is stuck — from the Fed's steady hand on the IOER to a global bid for duration that's capping yields. They zero in on the 10-year real yield spread and what it signals about growth expectations. Plus, how the 2-year yield's rise to 4.31 percent is narrowing the curve again, and what…
How the 10-Year Yield Is Topping 4.70 Percent in July 2026
The 10-year Treasury yield has surged to 4.70 percent as of July 23, 2026, driven by a combination of hawkish Fed expectations, surging oil prices above $100 a barrel, and a steepening yield curve that now shows the 5-year yield leading the move. Lucas and Luna break down what's behind this rapid rise, how it's affecting bond ETFs like TLT and IEF, and what it means for investors watching the 2-year to 10-year spread. They also examine why the 30-year yield is pushing above 5.13 percent and…
How the Corporate Bond Market Is Decoupling From Treasuries
Episode 131 of The Bond Market Podcast with Fexingo: Treasuries, Yields, and Fixed Income for Beginners. Lucas and Luna dig into a surprising July 2026 development—corporate bond yields are not following Treasuries higher. With the 10-year Treasury at 4.63% and the 30-year above 5.13%, investment-grade and high-yield spreads have actually tightened. Lucas explains why the 'risk-free' anchor is losing its grip on corporate debt, pointing to strong company balance sheets, the carry trade in…
Why TIPS Are Beating Nominal Treasuries in July 2026
Episode 130 of The Bond Market Podcast examines why Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) are outperforming nominal Treasuries in late July 2026. Lucas and Luna break down the 10-year TIPS yield dropping to 1.25 percent, the breakeven inflation rate climbing to 3.41 percent, and what the 'TIPS spread' reveals about market expectations for Fed policy. They discuss the $42 billion in inflows into TIPS ETFs this year, how inflation breakevens are signaling a regime shift in bond pricing…
How Corporate Bond Arbitrage Is Breaking the Yield Curve
Lucas and Luna examine how the corporate bond market is distorting Treasury yield relationships in July 2026. With the 10-year Treasury at 4.60 percent and investment-grade corporate bonds yielding 106 basis points more, hedge funds are exploiting the spread through credit arbitrage strategies. The hosts explain why this activity is flattening the Treasury curve artificially, how the 5-year Treasury note has become the battleground for these trades, and what happens when the arbitrage unwinds.…
Why the 5-Year Treasury Is Leading the Curve Steepening
In this episode of The Bond Market Podcast, Lucas and Luna examine why the 5-year Treasury yield has surged 2.7% in the past week to 4.37%, outpacing gains in the 2-year and 10-year notes. They explore how this 'belly of the curve' move is reshaping the steepening narrative, with the 10-year-2-year spread at 37 basis points and the 30-year yield above 5%. The hosts discuss drivers from supply concerns to hedge fund positioning, and what it means for investors. They also touch on Jamie Dimon's…
Why the 5-Year Treasury Yield Is Leading the Curve Steepening
In this episode of The Bond Market Podcast, Lucas and Luna explain why the 5-year Treasury yield is surging faster than both the 2-year and 10-year, steepening the curve in an unusual way. With the 5-year yield up nearly 3% in the last five days to 4.37%, they explore how Fed policy uncertainty, inflation expectations, and a crowded short trade are driving this specific part of the curve. Drawing on data from July 21, 2026, they break down why the 5-year note has become the bond market's swing…
Why the 3-Month Bill Is Sticky Above the Fed Funds Rate
In this episode of The Bond Market Podcast with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dig into a persistent anomaly in mid-2026: the 3-month Treasury yield is sitting at 3.85 percent, twenty-two basis points above the effective Fed funds rate of 3.63 percent. They explain why this gap matters for money market funds, the Fed's control of short-term rates, and what it signals about liquidity and bank reserve scarcity. Drawing on the interest on reserve balances rate of 3.65 percent and the ON RRP facility…
Why the 30-Year Treasury Yield Is Breaking Above 5 Percent
In this episode of The Bond Market Podcast, Lucas and Luna examine why the 30-year Treasury yield has climbed above 5 percent in July 2026, reaching 5.12 percent as of this week. They explore the key drivers: term premium expansion, fiscal deficit concerns, and the Fed's reduced influence at the long end. The hosts discuss how this move diverges from the 2-year yield and what it signals for mortgage rates, pension funds, and the broader economy. They also touch on the steepening yield curve and…
Why the 3-Month Yield Is Sticky Above the Fed Funds Rate
The 3-month Treasury yield has been stubbornly sitting above the Fed funds rate for months, and it's not just a technical glitch. In this episode, Lucas and Luna dig into why short-term rates are breaking from the central bank's target, what it says about liquidity in the repo market, and how the Fed's interest on reserve balances is losing its grip. With the 3-month yield at 3.84% and the Fed funds rate flat at 3.63%, the gap is signaling that the plumbing of money markets is under stress.…
How the 2-Year Treasury Yield Became the Real Fed Signal
In this episode of The Bond Market Podcast, Lucas and Luna explore how the 2-year Treasury yield has overtaken the Fed funds rate as the market's true compass for monetary policy. With the 2-year yield sitting at 4.16 percent and the Fed holding rates steady at 3.63 percent, the gap is sending a clear message. The hosts break down why bond traders are pricing in a higher terminal rate than the Fed projects, what the 0.53 percent spread means for inflation expectations, and how this shift…
Why the 3-Month Treasury Yield Is Sticky Above the Fed Funds Rate
It's mid-July 2026 and something strange is happening in short-term debt markets: the 3-month Treasury yield is sitting at 3.84 percent, a full 21 basis points above the effective fed funds rate of 3.63. Typically, the two move in lockstep, but today's gap signals that money market funds are demanding a premium for reasons that go beyond rate expectations. This episode dives into the mechanics — the role of the Treasury's General Account, the shrinking supply of T-bills after debt-ceiling…
How the 10-Year Yield Is Topping 4.5 Percent
The 10-year Treasury yield has pushed above 4.5 percent for the first time since 2023, and it's not because of the Fed. Lucas and Luna unpack the mechanics behind the move: a surge in term premium driven by fiscal deficits and debt issuance, while short-term rate expectations stay anchored. They explain what the 2-year versus 10-year spread is really saying about the economy, and why the bond market is now leading the Fed rather than the other way around. Along the way, they reference Dallas…
Why the 30-Year Yield Is Breaking Above 5 Percent in July 2026
The 30-year Treasury yield has pushed above 5 percent, a level not sustained since before the 2008 financial crisis. In this episode, Lucas and Luna examine what's driving the break — a term premium shock, not a growth story. They look at how the 5.06 percent yield is reshaping mortgage pricing, pension fund assumptions, and the logic of long-duration bonds. Using data from July 18, 2026, they walk through the gap between the 30-year and the 10-year, and what it says about the market's view of…
Why the 2-Year Yield Is a Better Signal Than the Fed Funds Rate
In this episode of The Bond Market Podcast, Lucas and Luna explore why the 2-year Treasury yield has become a more reliable indicator of monetary policy direction than the Fed funds rate itself. With the Fed holding rates at 3.63% since June and the 2-year yield dropping to 4.13%, the bond market is pricing in cuts the Fed hasn't signaled. They examine the mechanics: how the 2-year yield reflects market expectations for future Fed actions, why it's leading the funds rate in mid-2026, and what…
Why the Yield Curve Is Steepening Without a Recession
The yield curve has been steepening since late 2024 — but the recession many expected hasn't arrived. In this episode, Lucas and Luna examine the 10-year minus 2-year spread, which sits at 41 basis points as of July 16, 2026. They break down why longer-term yields are rising faster than short-term yields, with the 30-year Treasury breaking above 5% while the 3-month yield falls. The hosts explore two drivers: the Fed's rate cuts pushing short rates down, and the term premium rising on fiscal…
Why the 30-Year Yield Is Breaking Above 5 Percent
Episode 117 of The Bond Market Podcast with Fexingo. Lucas and Luna examine why the 30-year Treasury yield is pushing above 5 percent in mid-2026, even as shorter-dated yields fall. They break down the widening spread between the 30-year and the 2-year, now over 90 basis points, and what it signals about term premium, fiscal deficits, and inflation expectations. With the 10-year yield at 4.58% and the 2-year at 4.18%, the curve is steepening—but not for the usual reasons. Lucas walks through…
Why the 2-Year Yield Is Flashing a Recession Signal
The 2-year Treasury yield has fallen below 4.2 percent for the first time since early 2024, while the 10-year yield sits at 4.58 percent. Lucas and Luna dig into what this narrowing spread means for recession timing, how the bond market is now pricing in Fed rate cuts, and why the 2-year yield may be a better early warning system than the yield curve itself. They look at the recent data: the 10-year minus 2-year spread has widened to 42 basis points, but the absolute level of the short end is…
How the 2-Year Yield Is Becoming a Better Fed Signal Than the Fed
The 2-year Treasury yield has historically been a sensitive barometer of Fed rate expectations, but in mid-2026, something unusual is happening: the 2-year yield is rising even as the Fed holds rates steady. Lucas and Luna dig into the mechanics behind this decoupling, exploring how the market is effectively second-guessing the Fed's forward guidance on interest rates. With the 2-year at 4.26 percent and the fed funds rate stuck at 3.63 percent, the gap between the two has widened to over 60…
How the 30-Year Treasury Yield Is Breaking Above 5 Percent
The 30-year Treasury yield has pushed above 5% for the first time since late 2023, and the long bond is sending a message the Fed can't ignore. Lucas and Luna unpack what's driving the move — from term premium repricing to foreign demand fading — and what it means for mortgage rates, pension funds, and the curve. They also look at why the 10-year yield is lagging behind, and whether this is the start of a steeper normalisation or a warning about fiscal sustainability. Specific numbers: 30-year…
How the Fed Funds Rate Became a Lagging Indicator
In mid-2026, the Fed funds rate sits at 3.63% while the 3-month Treasury yield has fallen to 3.85% and the 10-year yield hovers at 4.56%. Episode 113 of The Bond Market Podcast examines how the Fed's key policy rate has lost its signaling power. Lucas and Luna discuss why short-term money markets now move independently of the Fed's target, how the spread between the funds rate and three-month bills has narrowed to just 23 basis points, and what this means for the Fed's ability to guide the…
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