
Episodes
Why Your Car Loan Feels Like 1981 in a 2026 Economy
Auto loan rates are hovering near generational highs even as the Federal Reserve hints at easing. In this episode, Lucas and Luna dig into the mechanics of how auto loan rates are set — and why they track the ten-year Treasury and used-car values more than the Fed's short-term policy rate. They break down the spread between new-car and used-car loans, the role of captive finance arms versus credit unions, and what the 4.1 percent unemployment rate and cooling job openings tell us about who's…
Why Wage Growth Hasn't Turned Into a Wage-Price Spiral
In this episode of Stagflation Conversations, Lucas and Luna dig into a puzzle that's been nagging economists through the slow-growth summer of 2026: wages keep creeping up — average hourly earnings hit $37.60 in July — yet inflation isn't spiraling the way it did in the 1970s. They walk through the gap between nominal wage growth and real purchasing power, the role of sticky expectations, and why the Fed isn't panicking about a 4.1 percent unemployment rate. With CPI still slightly above…
How Stagflation Is Reshaping the Pet Food Industry
On this episode of Stagflation Conversations, we look at how the pet food industry is navigating the twin pressures of high inflation and slow growth. With the latest CPI showing overall prices up 2.3% year-over-year while core inflation remains sticky, we dig into why your dog's dinner costs more even as the economy sputters. We discuss the shift from premium to value brands, the rise of private-label pet food, and how companies like Nestlé Purina and J.M. Smucker are adjusting their…
The Silver Lining in Stagflation's Gloom
In this episode of Stagflation Conversations, Lucas and Luna explore an unexpected bright spot in a slow-growth, high-inflation economy: silver. While gold grabs headlines, silver is quietly outperforming, driven by dual demand from investors and industrial users. We break down the numbers—silver prices hovering near $65 an ounce, the gold-to-silver ratio compressing, and what it means for your portfolio. We also touch on the latest CPI data showing core inflation still sticky at 336.8, and why…
Why Lettuce Prices Crashed While Inflation Lingers
In July 2026, the consumer price index ticked up to 332.8 while wholesale prices stayed flat—and lettuce prices plunged to record lows after a cyclospora scare. Lucas and Luna explore what this strange divergence tells us about the current stagflationary environment. They dig into the mechanics of fresh produce pricing, the role of food safety scares, and why the broader grocery basket remains sticky even as some items collapse. Along the way, they connect the dots to Federal Reserve policy…
How Stagflation Is Reshaping the Auto Insurance Industry
In this episode of Stagflation Conversations, Lucas and Luna examine how persistent stagflation is hitting the auto insurance sector. With July CPI showing core prices still sticky and real GDP growth slowing to 1.5 percent, insurers face a unique squeeze: rising claim costs from inflation and a hardening market that pushes premiums higher. The hosts break down why your premium is climbing faster than overall inflation, how insurers are using AI and telematics to manage risk, and what the shift…
Stagflation Is Reshaping the Textbook Publishing Industry
Textbook publishers are caught between soaring paper costs and school budgets squeezed by stagflation. In this episode, Lucas and Luna explore how the industry is pivoting to digital-only materials, why used-book markets are thriving, and what the July CPI report's 3.4 percent annual inflation means for a company like Pearson. They discuss the surprising resilience of print in a slow-growth economy and the role of AI in cutting production costs. With real GDP growth at just 1.5 percent and…
How Stagflation Is Squeezing the Managed Care Insurers
In episode 151 of Stagflation Conversations, Lucas and Luna dig into a corner of the economy most of us only meet at open enrollment: private health insurers. With real GDP growth down to 1.5 percent and unemployment at 4.1 percent, the insurers are getting squeezed from both sides. Lucas walks through the numbers: premiums tied to medical inflation, which is running hot even as headline CPI cools to 332.6, and the investing income that's propping up their margins as the S&P 500 stumbles. Luna…
Why Stagflation Is Making Gold Miners the New Bond Hedge
In episode 150 of Stagflation Conversations, Lucas and Luna examine a striking market anomaly: while the S&P 500 has wobbled under 1.5 percent real GDP growth and a surprise July payroll decline, gold miners have surged 18 percent in a single week. They unpack why miners like Barrick and Newmont are outperforming bullion itself, how higher gold prices translate into outsized earnings leverage, and what this says about investor fear in a stagflationary climate. With gold at $4,400 an ounce and…
Why Gold Is Outperforming Stocks in a Stagflation Era
In this episode of Stagflation Conversations, Lucas and Luna dig into a striking divergence in 2026: gold and gold miners are soaring while the broader economy sputters. With gold up over 7% in a week and the S&P 500 grinding higher at a slower pace, they explore what this says about investor sentiment in a stagflationary environment. They break down the driving forces—central bank buying, real yields, and a flight to safety—and compare today's dynamics to the 1970s, when gold famously surged…
Stagflation Is Reshaping the Craft Beer Industry
In this episode of Stagflation Conversations, Lucas and Luna explore how high inflation and sluggish growth are reshaping the craft beer industry. With barley prices up 12% year-over-year and aluminum can costs climbing 8%, small breweries are squeezed between rising input costs and consumers trading down to cheaper options. Lucas cites data showing craft beer volumes fell 3% last year, while macro brewers gained share. They discuss how breweries are adapting: some are shrinking can sizes…
Stagflation Is Reshaping the Trucking Industry
In this episode of Stagflation Conversations, Lucas and Luna examine how high inflation and slow growth are hitting the trucking industry harder than most. With diesel prices up 40 percent since 2024 and freight volumes down, small fleets are selling off rigs at record rates. Lucas breaks down the squeeze on owner-operators, the shift to rail, and what the latest JOLTS data—showing job openings down to 7.359 million—means for driver shortages. Luna brings in the shocking stat that one in five…
Why Your Rent Is Not Falling in a Slow-Growth Economy
In this episode of Stagflation Conversations, Lucas and Luna zero in on a paradox: real GDP growth is just 1.5 percent, inflation is easing, yet rents remain stubbornly high. They unpack the 1970s echo—how rent stickiness prolonged stagflation back then and how the same dynamics are playing out now. With the latest CPI and PCE data showing cooling headline inflation but sticky shelter costs, they explain why landlords aren't cutting rents even as vacancies rise. They dig into the role of…
How Stagflation Is Reshaping the Tire Industry
In episode 145 of Stagflation Conversations, Lucas and Luna look at how high inflation and sluggish growth are hitting the tire industry — from raw material costs to consumer buying habits. They discuss why natural rubber prices are up nearly 30 percent since last year, how synthetic rubber tied to oil prices adds another layer of pressure, and what that means for the price of a new set of tires. The conversation also covers the shift toward longer-lasting tires, the rise of budget brands, and…
Stagflation Is Reshaping the Movie Theater Industry
Movie theaters are quietly becoming a bellwether for stagflation. With inflation running at its lowest in years but growth slowing to 1.5 percent, box office attendance is caught between sticky ticket prices and squeezed discretionary spending. Lucas and Luna dig into the numbers: average ticket prices up nearly 6 percent year-over-year, popcorn margins defying gravity, and the rise of 'premium large format' screens as a hedge. They compare today's audience behavior to the 1970s, when going to…
Why Your Grocery Bill Is Sticky Even as Inflation Eases
Inflation is cooling — headline CPI dipped to 3.3 percent in June, and core inflation is down from a year ago. But your grocery bill doesn't feel lighter, and that's not just psychological. In this episode, Lucas and Luna dig into the economics of stickiness: why packaged food prices lag the overall index, how the 1970s taught retailers to shrink portions rather than cut prices, and why the recent dip in commodity costs hasn't shown up at the checkout yet. They trace the gap between the CPI's…
Why Stagflation Is Reshaping the Commercial Real Estate Market
In this episode of Stagflation Conversations, Lucas and Luna examine how stagnationflation is quietly rewriting the rules for commercial real estate. With office vacancy rates in major US cities near record highs and borrowing costs still elevated, the sector is facing a reckoning that echoes the 1970s. Lucas breaks down why the classic 'buy the building, rent the space' model is breaking, and how a new wave of investors is pivoting to industrial properties and data centers. They discuss the…
How the Bond Market Is Pricing In Stagflation
Episode 141 of Stagflation Conversations dives into the bond market’s latest signal: the 10-year breakeven inflation rate has climbed to 2.26%, even as real GDP growth slowed to just 1.5% annualized in Q2 2026. Lucas and Luna explore what this divergence means for the Federal Reserve’s divided stance, the rising cost of services, and whether investors should brace for a 1970s-style policy mistake. They reference the Fed’s internal debate, Kevin Warsh’s recent language, and the surprising…
How Stagflation Is Reshaping the Auto Parts Industry
In this episode of Stagflation Conversations, Lucas and Luna examine how high inflation and sluggish growth are transforming the auto parts and repair industry. With the average car on US roads now 12.5 years old—a record—consumers are holding onto vehicles longer, driving up demand for replacement parts and repair labor. Meanwhile, parts manufacturers face rising input costs and supply chain bottlenecks, squeezing margins even as revenue grows. The hosts explore how this dynamic mirrors the…
How Stagflation Is Reshaping the Freight Shipping Industry
Episode 139 of Stagflation Conversations with Fexingo dives into the freight shipping industry, where import costs from China have hit their highest level since 2008. Lucas and Luna examine how rising container rates, fuel costs, and wage pressures are squeezing logistics companies and driving up prices for goods, even as GDP growth slows. Using live data including a 2.1% annualized real GDP growth rate, 4.2% unemployment, and record import prices, they explore why this sector is a key…
How Stagflation Is Reshaping the Grocery Industry
Even as overall inflation shows signs of cooling—CPI dipped to 332.6 in June from 333.98—grocery prices remain stubbornly high. In this episode, Lucas and Luna explore how stagflation is reshaping the grocery retail industry. They break down why food-at-home costs are lagging behind the broader disinflation trend, and how retailers like Walmart and Kroger are responding. Private-label brands are surging as consumers trade down, and supply chain pressures from rising import costs—import prices…
How Stagflation Is Reshaping US Manufacturing
Lucas and Luna dig into the latest data showing import prices from China at their highest since 2008, and what that means for American manufacturers in a stagflationary environment. They use Caterpillar as a concrete example of how rising input costs and a tight labor market squeeze margins, even as GDP growth remains positive. The conversation covers the Fed's dilemma, the slow pace of reshoring, and the feedback loop between higher producer prices and consumer spending. Along the way, they…
How Stagflation Drives Up Consumer Electronics Prices
Episode 136 of Stagflation Conversations digs into a pocket of inflation most of us feel every day: consumer electronics. Imported goods from China just hit their highest cost level since 2008, according to the latest trade data. And that feeds directly into the price of smartphones, laptops, and home gadgets. Lucas and Luna break down why a typical flagship phone now costs 15% more than two years ago, how companies are redesigning products to shave off dollars, and why this feels like a…
How Stagflation Is Reshaping the Generic Drug Industry
Import prices from China just hit their highest level since 2008, and that's bad news for generic drug makers who rely on Chinese and Indian suppliers for active pharmaceutical ingredients. In this episode of Stagflation Conversations with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna examine how rising input costs, tariff threats, and a slowing economy are squeezing the generic drug supply chain. They reference the latest CPI and import price data, discuss the proposed 2028 tariffs on generic drugs, and consider…
How Stagflation Is Reshaping the Airline Industry
In this episode, Lucas and Luna examine how the airline industry is navigating the twin pressures of rising input costs and softening demand — two hallmarks of a stagflationary environment. With jet fuel prices climbing, labor costs edging up, and import costs for parts and supplies from China at their highest since 2008, carriers are hiking fares even as load factors dip below 80% for the first time since 2023. The hosts explore how major airlines are responding: cutting capacity on…
How Stagflation Is Reshaping the Home Builders Market
With real GDP growth at 2.1% but core CPI still sticky, home builders face a double bind: rising costs for materials and labor, plus stubbornly high mortgage rates. Lucas and Luna explore how builders are adapting—cutting luxury features, shifting to townhomes, and using rate buydowns—while the labor market stays tight with jobless claims at 187,000. Plus, why the ad-free model keeps us free to dig deep. #Stagflation #HomeBuilders #RealEstate #HousingMarket #Inflation #GDP #LaborMarket…
How Stagflation Is Reshaping the Apparel Industry
Episode 132 of Stagflation Conversations explores how rising import costs from China—the highest since 2008—are squeezing apparel retailers and shifting consumer habits. Lucas and Luna examine the margin pressures facing fast-fashion giants versus premium brands, the role of discount stores like Ross and Burlington, and what the 1970s can teach us about trading down. With CPI still elevated at 332.6 and wage growth barely keeping pace, the hosts ask: is a permanent value shift underway? Tied to…
How Rising Import Costs From China Echo the 1970s
Import prices from China just hit their highest level since 2008, a jolt that echoes the supply-shock dynamics of the stagflation era. Lucas and Luna break down what this means for inflation, corporate margins, and the consumer wallet—using real data from July 2026. They explore how tariff policies, onshoring delays, and global supply chain friction are feeding into a slow-growth, high-cost environment. The episode looks at the mixed signals: an improving GDP growth rate and low unemployment…
How Stagflation Is Reshaping the Toy Industry
In episode 130 of Stagflation Conversations with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna explore how the toy industry is navigating high inflation and sluggish growth in 2026. With the consumer price index for toys up 4.2% year-over-year, families are cutting back, and major manufacturers like Hasbro and Mattel are pivoting to collector-focused lines and direct-to-consumer sales. Meanwhile, import prices from China hit their highest since 2008, pressuring margins. Lucas breaks down the shift from $20 action…
How Stagflation Is Reshaping the Plumbing Industry
Lucas and Luna dive into a surprising corner of the economy: plumbing. With home repair costs up 22% since 2023 and a severe shortage of skilled tradespeople, plumbing has become a recession-resistant industry that's actually raising prices faster than overall inflation. They break down the labor math: the average plumber is 55 years old, fewer young workers are entering the field, and the resulting supply crunch is pushing hourly rates above $150 in major metros. Lucas points to data from the…
How Stagflation Is Reshaping the Gold Mining Industry
Episode 128 of Stagflation Conversations with Fexingo explores how gold mining companies are thriving in a high-inflation, slow-growth environment. With gold prices surging past $4,000 an ounce and mining stocks like the GDX up over 7% in a week, Lucas and Luna examine the operational math behind the boom. They drill into the specific economics of Barrick Gold's Cortez mine in Nevada, where rising extraction costs are being more than offset by record gold prices. The hosts unpack how old mines…
How Stagflation Is Reshaping the Fast Food Industry
Episode 127 of Stagflation Conversations with Fexingo digs into one of the most visible battlegrounds of high inflation and slow growth: the fast food industry. With CPI still elevated at 332.6 and average hourly earnings climbing to $37.60, consumers are trading down from sit-down restaurants, but even fast food is getting squeezed. Lucas and Luna break down how chains like McDonald's and Wendy's are experimenting with value menus, AI drive-thrus, and smaller footprints to protect margins.…
How Stagflation Is Reshaping the Lawn Care Industry
Episode 126 of Stagflation Conversations with Fexingo dives into the lawn care industry, where rising costs and stagnant wages are changing how Americans maintain their yards. Lucas and Luna examine the shift from professional landscaping to DIY, the surge in native-plant gardening, and the pressures on lawn care startups. They reference recent economic data: the consumer price index for June 2026 shows a slight dip to 332.6, but core inflation remains sticky, and the ten-year breakeven rate…
How Stagflation Is Reshaping the Office Furniture Market
Episode 125 digs into a surprising casualty of the current stagflationary economy: the office furniture industry. With the S&P 500 down 0.8% over five days and core PCE still rising at 130.1, companies are slashing capital expenditures on physical office spaces. Lucas and Luna explore how commercial real estate vacancies are crushing demand for desks and chairs, while the pre-owned furniture market booms. They cite a 40% drop in new office furniture orders since 2022 and a 200% surge in…
How Stagflation Is Reshaping the Toy Industry
In episode 124 of Stagflation Conversations with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna examine how the toy industry is navigating a unique cost-inflation-meets-consumer-squeeze moment. With wholesale prices dropping but import costs from China hitting highs not seen since 2008, toymakers face a double bind: input costs are up, but parents are trading down. The hosts break down why Hasbro and Mattel are leaning into price-tiered strategies, how third-party sellers on Amazon are capturing the value-conscious…
How Stagflation Is Reshaping the Car Insurance Market
Episode 123: Lucas and Luna examine how stagflation is transforming the car insurance industry. With parts and labor costs up, accident frequency rising post-pandemic, and the CPI for motor vehicle insurance up over 15% year-over-year, insurers are hiking premiums faster than ever. But claims costs are also rising, and some regions are seeing insurers pull back entirely. Lucas breaks down the math behind the premium spike, the role of repair cost inflation, and what drivers can expect. Luna…
How Stagflation Is Reshaping the Used Heavy Equipment Market
While most coverage of stagflation focuses on consumer prices, Lucas and Luna drill into the market for used heavy equipment — bulldozers, excavators, and haul trucks. Construction and mining companies are holding onto machines longer as new equipment prices surge and financing costs climb. Auction prices for late-model Cat D6 dozers have risen 18% year-over-year, and rental fleets are expanding their average fleet age to record highs. The hosts unpack data from Ritchie Bros. Auctioneers, the…
How Stagflation Is Reshaping the Commercial Real Estate Market
Episode 121 of Stagflation Conversations with Fexingo dives into commercial real estate, where high inflation and sluggish growth are squeezing office, retail, and industrial properties. Lucas and Luna examine the 25 percent vacancy rate in downtown office towers, the surprising resilience of warehouse space despite e-commerce slowdowns, and how the gap between CPI and PCE signals different cost pressures for landlords and tenants. They discuss the Federal Reserve's regional data showing that…
How Stagflation Is Reshaping the Live Event Ticketing Industry
Lucas and Luna examine how stagflation is squeezing the live event ticketing industry. With real GDP growth at just 2.1 percent and core PCE inflation still elevated at 130.1, consumers are pulling back on concert and sports ticket spending. Average hourly earnings rose only 0.2 percent month-over-month to $37.60, while ticket prices have surged. The hosts break down how dynamic pricing algorithms and secondary markets are adapting to a more price-sensitive audience, using recent data from the…
How Stagflation Is Reshaping the Movie Theater Industry
Lucas and Luna examine how persistent high inflation and slow growth are transforming the movie theater business. Theater attendance is down 15% from pre-pandemic levels, yet premium formats like IMAX and Dolby are charging $25-plus per ticket and seeing record revenue per patron. The hosts break down the bifurcation: discount chains like Cinemark are slashing prices to lure budget-conscious families, while luxury chains double down on dine-in and recliner seats. They also discuss how studios…
How Stagflation Is Reshaping the Brewing Industry
Episode 118 of Stagflation Conversations examines how small and mid-sized craft breweries are adapting to persistent high input costs and slowing consumer demand. Lucas and Luna dig into the impact of rising barley and aluminum prices—up 18% and 14% year-over-year respectively—and explore why many brewers are shifting from taproom expansions to contract brewing and retail partnerships. They also reference the latest CPI data showing a 0.4% decline in June, which hints at easing cost pressures…
How Stagflation Is Reshaping the Car Rental Industry
Episode 117 of Stagflation Conversations examines how persistent high inflation and sluggish growth are transforming the car rental industry. Lucas and Luna focus on Hertz's decision to sell 20,000 EVs from its fleet in early 2025, replacing them with gasoline-powered vehicles. They trace how rising repair costs, surging insurance premiums, and lower resale values for used EVs have upended the rental business model. The hosts also discuss how competitors like Enterprise and Avis are responding…
How Stagflation Is Reshaping the College Admissions Industry
As persistent high inflation and slowing economic growth squeeze middle-class families, the college admissions industry is undergoing a profound shift. In this episode of Stagflation Conversations with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna examine how enrollment patterns, financial aid strategies, and test-optional policies are being reshaped by the current economic climate. They focus on the surprising rise of community college transfers to elite universities, a trend accelerated by cost-conscious families…
How Stagflation Is Reshaping the Container Shipping Industry
Episode 115 of Stagflation Conversations explores how persistent inflation and sluggish global trade are squeezing container shipping lines. Lucas and Luna examine the collapse in spot freight rates from pandemic highs, the impact of rising fuel costs and new vessel deliveries on profitability, and how major carriers like Maersk are adapting by slashing capacity and diversifying into logistics. They tie the discussion to recent data: the dip in wholesale prices driven by falling gasoline, and…
How Stagflation Is Reshaping the Dental Care Industry
Episode 114 of Stagflation Conversations with Fexingo examines how persistent high inflation and sluggish growth are transforming the dental care industry. Lucas and Luna discuss the 3.5% CPI reading for June 2026 and the 4.2% unemployment rate, then zero in on a specific case: the 5.7% decline in dental visits per capita since 2023, according to the American Dental Association's Health Policy Institute. They explore why patients are deferring elective procedures, how providers are responding…
How Stagflation Is Reshaping the Used Car Market
With CPI at 3.5% and real GDP growth anemic at 2.1%, the used car market is a perfect stagflation case study. Wholesale prices fell unexpectedly in June, but new car prices remain stubbornly high. Lucas and Luna drill into the Manheim Used Vehicle Index, which dropped 4.2% year-over-year in June 2026. They explain why high interest rates are crushing dealer inventory financing, how falling gasoline prices are shifting demand toward larger vehicles, and why the average used car loan is now over…
Why Staying Home Is Getting More Expensive
In this episode of Stagflation Conversations, Lucas and Luna explore the surprising trend of 'funflation' — the rising cost of at-home entertainment and everyday life. With consumer prices up 3.5% year-over-year in June 2026, even staying in is costing more. They break down how higher costs for streaming services, at-home dining, and hobbies are squeezing household budgets, and what this means for the broader economy. Using recent data on core CPI and average hourly earnings, they connect the…
How Stagflation Is Reshaping the Thrift Store Industry
In episode 111 of Stagflation Conversations with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna examine how stagflation is reshaping the thrift store industry. With CPI at 332.6 and the unemployment rate at 4.2 percent, more consumers are turning to secondhand shopping—but thrift stores themselves are grappling with rising costs and supply chain disruptions. The hosts discuss how chains like Goodwill and Salvation Army are adjusting pricing strategies, why luxury resale is booming, and what this means for the broader…
How Stagflation Is Reshaping the Funeral Industry
Episode 110 of Stagflation Conversations with Fexingo looks at an industry most people try not to think about: funeral services. Lucas and Luna discuss how rising costs and stagnant wages are changing how Americans handle end-of-life arrangements. With the CPI for funeral expenses up 8.7% year-over-year in May 2026 — outpacing overall inflation — more families are choosing direct cremation over traditional burial. The hosts unpack data from the National Funeral Directors Association, which…
How Stagflation Is Reshaping the Pet Insurance Market
In episode 109 of Stagflation Conversations, Lucas and Luna explore how persistent stagflation is transforming the pet insurance industry. With CPI at 334 and core CPI still elevated, pet owners are facing higher vet costs and tighter budgets. The hosts examine why pet insurance premiums have risen 23% over the past two years, how insurers are adjusting coverage tiers, and what the 10-year breakeven inflation rate of 2.24% means for future pricing. They discuss the shift from comprehensive…
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