The Labor Market Podcast with Fexingo: Jobs Reports, Unemployment, and Wage Growth

The Labor Market Podcast with Fexingo: Jobs Reports, Unemployment, and Wage Growth podcast cover
Fexingo Economics

The Labor Market Podcast with Fexingo: Jobs Reports, Unemployment, and Wage Growth

Lucas and Luna dissect each month's employment situation report the morning it lands. They walk through the headline payroll number, the unemployment rate, and the wage growth figure, then read them against the previous month's revisions and the longer-term trend. The conversation is never just 'jobs up, good' — they ask what the labor force participation rate tells you about prime-age workers, how the household survey differs from the establishment survey, and whether a deceleration in average hourly earnings is actually happening or just a composition effect. They look at industry-level employment changes: which sectors are adding, which are flat, and whether the leisure-and-hospitality catch-up is finally exhausted. They discuss how the Federal Reserve's dual mandate — maximum employment and price stability — shapes the market's reaction to these numbers, and what the bond market is pricing in for the next meeting. Lucas brings historical context (how does this recovery compare to 2009 or 2020?) and Luna presses on what the data means for workers in different pay quartiles, for job seekers, and for business owners making hiring decisions. The show is built for listeners who already know the basics — they want the nuance, the inconsistencies, the real story behind the topline. Each episode ends with a question the hosts cannot answer from the data alone: what does a job market that looks tight at the aggregate but soft in certain demographics actually mean for the next six months?

#LaborMarket#JobsReport#UnemploymentRate#WageGrowth#FederalReserve#EmploymentData#Payrolls#LaborForceParticipation#EconomicIndicators#BureauOfLaborStatistics#MonetaryPolicy#JobsNumbers#Economics#FexingoBusiness#BusinessPodcast#DailyBusinessNews#Macroeconomics#JobMarketTrends

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Episodes

Latest 50 of 222 episodes

The AI Labor Shock Women Face First

Oct 19, 2026 · 11:10

Lucas and Luna examine how automation is reshaping the workforce, with a specific focus on recent data suggesting women in administrative and switchboard roles face higher displacement risks from AI. They analyze the disconnect between rising job openings and shrinking demand for routine cognitive tasks, using September employment figures and JOLTS data to predict where the next labor market shift will hit hardest. #LaborMarket #AIImpact #GenderGap #AutomationRisk #JobDisplacement #WageGrowth…

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The Hidden Cost of Stale Job Openings Data

Oct 18, 2026 · 10:32

Lucas and Luna dig into the disconnect between falling job openings and rising wage growth. With JOLTS data showing openings at 7,079,000 and average hourly earnings climbing to $37.80, they explore why employers are paying more for fewer candidates. The conversation examines how this shift impacts small business hiring strategies and what it signals about labor demand heading into Q4. #LaborMarket #JOLTSData #WageGrowth #HiringTrends #EconomicsPodcast #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast…

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The Wage Growth Illusion Hiding in September Data

Oct 17, 2026 · 10:20

Lucas and Luna dissect why rising hourly earnings might be masking a deeper labor market cooling. With the unemployment rate ticking up to 4.20 percent and job openings falling to 7,079 thousand, we explore how wage growth is becoming disconnected from actual hiring demand. This episode examines the structural shift in employer behavior as they prioritize efficiency over expansion, leaving workers with higher paychecks but fewer opportunities. #LaborMarket #WageGrowth #UnemploymentRate…

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The Quiet Wage Freeze Hiding in October Jobs Data

Oct 16, 2026 · 8:34

While headline payrolls look stable, Lucas and Luna dig into the Employment Cost Index and average hourly earnings to reveal a subtle but critical shift: wage growth is stalling just as inflation pressures return. With wholesale prices jumping 6.3 percent year-over-year and job openings falling to 7,079 thousand, the labor market is sending mixed signals. The hosts analyze why employers are holding back on raises despite a tight labor market, what this means for the Federal Reserve’s October…

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The Quiet Shift in Labor Demand and Wages

Oct 13, 2026 · 9:30

On this episode of The Labor Market Podcast, we look at the divergence between falling job openings and steady wage growth. Lucas and Luna explore how the decline in JOLTS data to 7,079 thousand reflects a cooling demand side, even as unemployment ticks up slightly to 4.20 percent. We analyze what this means for workers negotiating raises and why the IMF's recent warnings about debt resilience might be overshadowing subtle labor market signals. Tune in for a grounded look at where hiring is…

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The Silent Wage Freeze Hiding in September Data

Oct 11, 2026 · 8:39

Lucas and Luna dissect why average hourly earnings rose to thirty-seven dollars and eighty cents in September while underlying wage growth for the majority of workers remained flat. They explore how the composition of hiring—specifically the influx of lower-paid service roles—skews headline numbers, creating a misleading sense of momentum just as job openings cool toward seven thousand. This episode reveals what stable unemployment at four point two percent actually means for your next…

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The JOLTS Paradox Hiding Weak Labor Demand

Oct 10, 2026 · 9:51

Why job openings are falling while unemployment holds steady, and what the September data tells us about the real health of the hiring market. Lucas and Luna break down the disconnect between stagnant payrolls and shrinking vacancies, exploring whether this signals a cooling economy or a structural shift in how companies recruit. With average hourly earnings rising to thirty-seven dollars and eighty cents, we examine if wage growth can sustain consumption despite fewer open roles.…

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Why Wage Growth Is Outpacing Job Security

Oct 9, 2026 · 11:02

In this episode of The Labor Market Podcast, Lucas and Luna dissect the disconnect between rising average hourly earnings and the softening job market. With unemployment ticking up to four point two percent in September and job openings falling below seven million, we explore why wages are still climbing while hiring stalls. We look at the Employment Cost Index data, the impact of tariffs on everyday inflation, and what this divergence means for your career strategy in late 2026. #LaborMarket…

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The Jobless Claims Paradox in October

Oct 8, 2026 · 7:36

Why do initial jobless claims keep falling while private sector payrolls stall and unemployment ticks up to four point two percent? We dig into the disconnect between stable weekly filings and the broader labor market cooling. With average hourly earnings rising modestly and job openings dropping below seven million, we explore what this divergence means for wage growth and the FOMC’s next moves. It’s a signal that low claims might be masking a deeper structural shift in hiring demand rather…

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The Hidden Trap of Stale Job Openings Data

Oct 7, 2026 · 7:51

Lucas and Luna dig into why JOLTS job openings have dropped to seventy thousand, a key threshold signaling a cooling labor market that payroll numbers often miss. They explore how the lag in hiring data creates a false sense of security for investors and workers alike, using September’s thirty-day gap in initial claims as a case study for delayed economic signals. This episode reveals why watching job cuts and quits is now more important than watching hires. #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast…

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Why Your Job Security Is Finally Real

Oct 6, 2026 · 8:14

The September labor report showed payrolls stalled at twenty-nine thousand, yet the unemployment rate only ticked up to four point two percent. Lucas and Luna dig into the structural shift driving this stability: the quiet exit of older workers and the rising premium on experience. With job openings falling to seven million and wage growth cooling, the market is signaling a move from quantity to quality. This episode explores how demographic tailwinds are reshaping hiring strategies and why…

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Why September Payrolls Mask a Real Labor Slowdown

Oct 5, 2026 · 9:03

Lucas and Luna dissect the contradiction between stagnant nonfarm payrolls and falling jobless claims in early October 2026. They explore how structural shifts in hiring patterns are creating a false sense of stability, using specific data on unemployment rates and wage growth to reveal what workers and employers aren't seeing yet. #LaborMarket #SeptemberJobsReport #UnemploymentRate #NonfarmPayrolls #JoblessClaims #WageGrowth #EconomicData #HiringSlowdown #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast…

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Why Men Are Losing Ground in the Labor Market

Oct 4, 2026 · 7:07

The September jobs report revealed a stark divergence: while overall employment ticked up, men lost significant ground. We break down why this gap is widening, looking at the drop in job openings to seven thousand and fifty-seven hundred and how it impacts specific industries. Lucas and Luna explore whether this is a temporary blip or a structural shift in male labor participation. #MenLaborMarketGap #SeptemberJobsReport #UnemploymentRateRise #JobOpeningsDecline #EconomicsPodcast…

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The Men's Labor Market Gap Explained

Oct 3, 2026 · 10:25

With the September unemployment rate ticking up to four point two percent and nonfarm payrolls slowing to twenty-nine thousand, a stark divergence has emerged in the labor data. While overall job growth remains positive, men are losing ground at a pace that outpaces women by a significant margin. Lucas and Luna dissect this shift, looking at why manufacturing and construction roles—traditionally male-dominated—are contracting while service sector jobs continue to expand. They analyze the…

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The Gender Gap in September Jobs Data

Oct 2, 2026 · 8:09

September’s labor report showed unemployment ticking up to 4.2 percent while payroll gains stalled, but the headline numbers mask a deeper structural shift: men are losing ground faster than women. We break down why service-sector job losses are hitting male-dominated roles harder, how this impacts wage growth, and what it signals for the broader economy heading into Q4. #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #LaborMarket #UnemploymentRate #GenderGap #Economics #WageGrowth #SeptemberJobsReport…

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The Productivity Mirage Hiding Weak Labor Demand

Oct 1, 2026 · 8:29

With August payrolls holding steady at one hundred fifty nine thousand but job openings dropping sharply to seven thousand, we investigate why productivity numbers are masking a cooling labor market. Lucas and Luna break down how rising hourly earnings of thirty seven dollars and eighty cents clash with stagnant demand, revealing the quiet shift in service sector wages and what it means for your job security in October two thousand twenty six. #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economics…

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The Hidden Cost of Stable Jobless Claims

Sep 30, 2026 · 9:20

With initial jobless claims holding steady near 197,000 in late September 2026 and the unemployment rate flat at 4.10 percent, the labor market appears deceptively calm. Lucas and Luna dissect why this stability is masking a structural shift in hiring velocity. They explore how falling job openings, down to 7,079,000 from earlier highs, are creating a bottleneck where wages rise not because demand is surging, but because employers are competing for a shrinking pool of available workers. This…

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Why Productivity Is Masking Weak Labor Demand

Sep 29, 2026 · 6:49

With the S&P 500 holding near 7,678 and job openings dropping to 7.08 million in August, we examine the divergence between rising hourly earnings and stagnant payroll growth. Lucas and Luna dissect how firms are relying on efficiency rather than hiring, creating a labor market that looks strong on paper but feels fragile for workers. #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #LaborEconomics #ProductivityParadox #WageGrowth #JobOpenings #NonfarmPayrolls #HiringSlowdown #EfficiencyFirst…

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The Productivity Mirage in September Jobs Data

Sep 28, 2026 · 8:34

Lucas and Luna dissect the disconnect between stagnant job growth and rising wages in the latest labor data. With unemployment holding at four point one percent and nonfarm payrolls barely moving, they explore how firms are relying on existing staff rather than hiring new ones. The conversation centers on the Employment Cost Index and average hourly earnings, revealing a market where businesses are squeezing more output from fewer workers. This episode unpacks why this productivity squeeze…

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Why Your Job Security Is Finally Real

Sep 27, 2026 · 8:15

The unemployment rate has held steady at 4.10 percent through August, but the real story isn't just the number—it is who is keeping their jobs. We dig into the Employment Cost Index and initial jobless claims to uncover why wage growth is decoupling from payroll gains. With service sector wages quietly shifting and overtime paying less in real terms, we explore how structural changes in hiring are creating unexpected pockets of stability for workers who were previously considered expendable.…

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The Productivity Paradox in September Labor Data

Sep 26, 2026 · 9:45

Lucas and Luna dissect why unemployment sits at four point one percent while real wage growth feels stagnant. With private hourly earnings at thirty-seven dollars eight cents and job openings holding steady at seven million two hundred seventy-one thousand, the disconnect between headline payrolls and actual purchasing power is widening. This episode explores the hidden math behind the Employment Cost Index and why productivity gains are not translating into broader prosperity for the average…

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Why Your Job Security Is Finally Real

Sep 25, 2026 · 10:30

The unemployment rate has settled at four point one percent, a level that feels eerily familiar compared to the volatility of the early pandemic years. But beneath that headline number lies a structural shift in how employers are filling roles. With nonfarm payrolls holding steady around one hundred fifty nine thousand and job openings rising to seven thousand two hundred seventy one thousand, we are seeing a market that is no longer desperate for bodies but selective for skills. Lucas and Luna…

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The Productivity Paradox in September Labor Data

Sep 24, 2026 · 9:06

Lucas and Luna dissect why nonfarm payrolls rose to one hundred fifty-nine thousand in August while average hourly earnings grew at a modest pace. They explore the disconnect between hiring volume and wage pressure, examining how service sector dynamics and initial jobless claims suggest a labor market that is stabilizing rather than overheating. With global debt nearing three hundred sixty-five trillion dollars, the conversation focuses on what this specific data snapshot means for interest…

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The Service Sector Wage Squeeze

Sep 23, 2026 · 11:11

Lucas and Luna dissect the divergence between rising average hourly earnings and the reality of service-sector workers in September 2026. With nonfarm payrolls at 159 million and job openings holding steady near 7.3 million, they explore how overtime hours are paying less real value than before. Using data from August’s employment cost index and current jobless claims, they explain why the wage growth story is more nuanced for the people keeping the economy running. #LaborMarket #WageGrowth…

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The Paradox of Low Claims and Stagnant Wages

Sep 22, 2026 · 10:31

With initial jobless claims dropping to 196,000 in mid-September while private sector average hourly earnings sit at 37.80, the US labor market presents a confusing picture: stability without momentum. We break down why fewer people are filing for unemployment yet wage growth remains muted, exploring the structural shift from recession-driven layoffs to a hiring freeze that benefits neither workers nor employers. This episode examines the disconnect between headline employment numbers and the…

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Why Jobless Claims Are Falling While Payrolls Stall

Sep 21, 2026 · 11:23

Lucas and Luna unpack a puzzling divergence in the September labor data: initial jobless claims have dropped to 196,000, signaling fewer people are losing their jobs, yet private payrolls and wage growth are showing signs of stagnation. With the unemployment rate holding at 4.1 percent and average hourly earnings ticking up only slightly to 37.80 dollars, the traditional link between layoffs and hiring is breaking down. They explore what this decoupling means for workers who feel stuck and…

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The Quiet Shift in Service Wages

Sep 20, 2026 · 11:21

We look at why service sector wages are rising faster than manufacturing ones, despite a cooling labor market. With average hourly earnings hitting thirty seven point eight dollars and initial jobless claims dropping to one hundred ninety six thousand, we explore the structural shift in hiring demand. Lucas and Luna break down how the employment cost index tells a different story than headline payrolls, focusing on the specific pressures facing logistics and transport companies right now.…

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The Quiet Shift in Service Wages

Sep 19, 2026 · 11:20

We dig into the disconnect between rising hourly earnings and stagnant median weekly pay. With average hourly earnings at thirty-seven point eight dollars but job openings cooling to seven thousand two hundred seventy-one, we explore why workers are trading hours for stability rather than growth. Is the labor market truly tightening, or is something else driving this wage dynamic? #LaborMarket #WageGrowth #HourlyEarnings #WeeklyPay #EconomicsPodcast #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast…

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Why Overtime Hours Are Paying Less Than Before

Sep 18, 2026 · 9:42

We break down the disconnect between rising median weekly earnings and shrinking overtime hours in August. With average hourly earnings up to $37.80 but initial jobless claims dropping to 196,000, we explore how structural shifts in labor demand are quietly reducing total take-home pay for millions of workers despite headline wage growth. #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #LaborMarket #WageGrowth #OvertimePay #NonfarmPayrolls #JoblessClaims #Economics #MedianEarnings #HourlyWages…

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Why Your Overtime Hours Are Paying Less Than Before

Sep 17, 2026 · 9:23

Lucas and Luna break down the disconnect between rising hourly wages and shrinking overtime pay in August 2026. With initial jobless claims dropping to 196,000 and average hourly earnings climbing to thirty-seven dollars and eighty cents, why are workers seeing less total income growth? We explore how the shift from variable hours to fixed schedules is reshaping household budgets and what it means for the broader labor market. #LaborMarket #WageGrowth #OvertimePay #HourlyWages #EmploymentCosts…

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Why Wage Growth Is Outpacing Payroll Gains in September

Sep 16, 2026 · 9:24

In this episode of The Labor Market Podcast, Lucas and Luna dissect the diverging trends in today's labor data. With nonfarm payrolls holding steady at roughly one hundred fifty-nine thousand but average hourly earnings climbing to thirty-seven dollars and eighty cents, we explore what this wage-price dynamic means for inflation expectations heading into late September twenty twenty-six. We examine how the Employment Cost Index rise to one hundred seventy-nine points signals structural shifts…

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The Real Wage Gap Inflation Is Hiding

Sep 15, 2026 · 9:48

We are looking at the divergence between median usual weekly earnings and actual inflation trends in September 2026. While headline payrolls look stable, the gap between what workers earn and what they spend is widening. We break down why median weekly earnings of twelve hundred four dollars are losing ground against persistent core inflation. This episode explores the hidden math behind your paycheck and how wage growth is being eroded by rising costs in housing and services. #WageGrowth…

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The Real Cost of Your Paycheck in September

Sep 14, 2026 · 12:48

Lucas and Luna unpack the widening gap between nominal wage gains and persistent inflation, using August’s average hourly earnings of thirty-seven dollars eighty cents against a CPI that refuses to break three percent. They explore why workers are feeling poorer despite higher paychecks, examining the service sector wage squeeze and the hidden tax on purchasing power that defines the labor market in mid-September two thousand twenty-six. #LaborMarket #WageGrowth #Inflation #PurchasingPower #CPI…

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The Wage Inflation Gap Squeezing Your Paycheck

Sep 13, 2026 · 9:22

Inflation is outpacing wage growth in September 2026, creating a real squeeze on household budgets. We break down why average hourly earnings are rising but median weekly pay isn't keeping pace, and what the latest CPI data means for your purchasing power. This episode explores the hidden tax on your paycheck that headline numbers miss. #WageGrowth #InflationSqueeze #CPIReport #PayrollData #EconomicOutlook #ConsumerPurchasingPower #LaborMarket #HourlyEarnings #MedianWages #FedPolicy…

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The Real Wage Gap Inflation Is Hiding

Sep 12, 2026 · 8:33

We look at why median weekly earnings are up to 1,204 dollars while core inflation sticks around 3.3 percent. Lucas and Luna break down the disconnect between what workers see on their paychecks and what they actually spend, using the latest employment cost index data to explain why purchasing power feels so fragile in September 2026. #WageGrowth #InflationRisk #PurchasingPower #LaborMarket #EconomicsPodcast #MedianEarnings #CostOfLiving #FederalReserve #ConsumerOutlook #FexingoBusiness…

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Why the Quit Rate Is Falling But Wages Are Rising

Sep 11, 2026 · 7:26

Lucas and Luna unpack the puzzling disconnect in August labor data: job openings are holding steady at over seven million while the quit rate drops. They explore how this shift signals a cooling of worker leverage even as hourly earnings continue their climb. With unemployment flat at four point one percent and initial claims dipping, the pair examines what this specific combination means for inflation expectations and the Federal Reserve's next move on interest rates. #LaborMarket #WageGrowth…

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How Trade Wars Are Rewiring US Labor Markets

Sep 10, 2026 · 10:02

With the U.S. and Canada escalating a trade dispute in September 2026, the labor market is facing a structural shock beyond standard wage dynamics. Lucas and Luna explore how import bans on Canadian goods and retaliatory tariffs are creating immediate hiring friction in specific sectors like manufacturing and logistics. They analyze the disconnect between steady nonfarm payrolls of 159 million and rising job openings at 7.2 million, asking if workers are staying put because of geographic…

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The Wage Stagnation Trap in 2026

Sep 9, 2026 · 7:05

Despite headline payrolls holding steady and average hourly earnings ticking up to thirty seven dollars, the median usual weekly earnings tell a different story. We explore why the disconnect between wages and hours is widening, leaving workers feeling poorer even as their rate of pay rises. Using July job openings data and August claims figures, we break down how reduced overtime and shifting schedules are eroding real take-home pay in the current labor market. #LaborMarket #WageGrowth…

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The Hidden Cost of Jobless Claims

Sep 8, 2026 · 8:37

While headline payrolls look steady, initial jobless claims are ticking up, revealing a subtle but significant shift in the labor market's undercurrents. Lucas and Luna dig into the latest data showing weekly claims rising to two hundred and six thousand, exploring what this small increase means for hiring momentum. They examine how this metric often leads broader employment trends, offering an early warning signal that investors and workers should watch closely as we move through September two…

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The Hidden Math Behind August Payrolls

Sep 7, 2026 · 9:31

August payrolls hit 162,000 while unemployment held steady at 4.1 percent, but the real story lies in the composition of those jobs. Lucas and Luna break down why women accounted for almost all of the gains, how initial jobless claims ticked up to 206,000, and what this specific split reveals about the underlying health of the labor market. We look past the headline number to examine the structural shifts in hiring, the rising cost of labor via the employment cost index, and why the Fed might…

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The Service Sector Wage Squeeze

Sep 6, 2026 · 9:15

With August payrolls rising to 162,000 and the unemployment rate holding steady at four point one percent, the labor market looks robust on paper. But a closer look at the Employment Cost Index reveals a deeper story: wages are accelerating faster than productivity in services. Lucas and Luna explore how this gap is forcing companies like Starbucks and Target to rethink their pricing strategies, turning wage growth into inflation for consumers while squeezing corporate margins. #LaborMarket…

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The Hidden Cost of Hiring Friction in August

Sep 5, 2026 · 11:41

August payrolls came in at 162,000 with unemployment holding at 4.1 percent, but the real story is hiding in the job openings data. With JOLTS showing 7.2 million openings and initial claims ticking up to 206,000, we are seeing a labor market that is technically strong but structurally creaking. Lucas and Luna dig into why employers are struggling to fill roles despite low unemployment, focusing on the mismatch between available workers and specific skill requirements. They explore how this…

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The Gender Split in August Payrolls

Sep 4, 2026 · 9:07

August payrolls added 162,000 jobs, but the headline number hides a stark divide. Women accounted for almost all of the gains while men’s employment stagnated. We dig into why this divergence matters for wage growth and the Fed’s September decision. With unemployment flat at 4.1 percent and job openings holding near 7.3 million, Lucas and Luna explore whether this is a temporary blip or a structural shift in how American businesses are hiring right now. #LaborMarket #AugustPayrolls…

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Why Job Openings Rose While Hiring Cooled

Sep 3, 2026 · 9:31

August’s labor data presents a puzzling divergence: private payrolls grew by only thirty-eight thousand while job openings ticked up to seven million two hundred seventy-one thousand. Lucas and Luna unpack why employers are posting roles but hesitating to fill them, exploring the gap between demand for workers and actual hiring velocity. With unemployment holding at four point one percent and initial claims rising slightly, the conversation examines how wage growth is stabilizing and what this…

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The Hidden Cost of Jobless Claims

Sep 2, 2026 · 8:14

With initial jobless claims dropping to two hundred and three thousand in late August while private payrolls stalled at thirty-eight thousand, we explore the disconnect between temporary layoffs and structural hiring freezes. Lucas and Luna break down why a falling claims number doesn't mean a tightening labor market, using the latest ADP data and JOLTS openings to show how companies are retaining staff by cutting hours rather than firing them. This episode reveals what the quiet stability in…

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The Hidden Tax on Your Paycheck

Sep 1, 2026 · 8:49

We look at why median weekly earnings hit $1,204 in early 2025 while the unemployment rate sat at four point one percent. The catch is that most of this growth came from longer hours, not higher hourly rates. We break down the Employment Cost Index data to show how wage stagnation hides behind payroll totals, and what it means for your actual purchasing power in September two thousand twenty-six. #WageGrowth #EmploymentCostIndex #LaborMarket #InflationAdjustment #RealWages #HourlyEarnings…

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Why Weekly Earnings Are Growing Faster Than Hourly Wages

Aug 31, 2026 · 8:27

On this episode, Lucas and Luna dig into a quiet but telling divergence in the labor market: median weekly earnings are up about 4 percent year-over-year, while average hourly earnings are barely moving at 3.6 percent. They explore what's driving the gap — fewer part-time workers, more hours for those employed, and the mix of jobs being created — and why it matters for how we read wage growth. With unemployment at 4.1 percent and job openings still cooling, the hosts ask whether this 'weekly…

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Why Workers Are Quitting Less but Earning More

Aug 30, 2026 · 7:55

In this episode of The Labor Market Podcast, Lucas and Luna unpack a surprising labor market paradox from the latest data: unemployment has ticked down to 4.1 percent, but hiring has slowed and job openings are down. They zero in on one fresh angle—how wage growth is increasingly concentrated among job stayers, not job switchers. With average hourly earnings up to $37.60 and the employment cost index for wages climbing, they explore why the premium for switching jobs has shrunk and what that…

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Why Core Inflation Is Sticking at 3.3 Percent

Aug 29, 2026 · 7:42

In Episode 174 of The Labor Market Podcast, Lucas and Luna dig into the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, which showed core prices up 3.3 percent in July. They explore why this 'sticky' number matters for workers, wages, and the central bank's next move. With the unemployment rate at 4.1 percent and wage growth cooling, the hosts ask whether the Fed's inflation fight is actually over. They break down what core inflation means, why it's staying above the Fed's 2 percent target, and how it…

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Why the Fed Is Watching the Employment Cost Index

Aug 28, 2026 · 7:26

On this episode of The Labor Market Podcast, Lucas and Luna dive into the Employment Cost Index — the metric the Fed is quietly treating as its north star. With core inflation stuck at 3.3 percent and Fed officials like Warsh and Hammack signalling they're ready to act, the ECI's steady climb to 179 has become the battleground. The hosts explain why the ECI paints a truer picture of wage pressure than average hourly earnings, how it's feeding the Fed's rate calculus, and what it says about…

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