Episodes
Treasury Buybacks Stir Inflation Worries
Treasury Secretary Bessent's plan to buy back government bonds is meant to calm markets, but it's raising inflation concerns. In this episode of Macro Tuesdays, Lucas and Luna break down why the bond market is pushing back, how the Treasury General Account could fund these buybacks, and what it means for the Fed's battle against inflation. With the 10-year yield at 4.7 percent and breakevens holding at 2.34 percent, the episode explores the delicate balance between fiscal stimulus and monetary…
Why the Bond Market Is Overriding the Fed's Rate
In this episode of Macro Tuesdays, Lucas and Luna dig into a puzzle that's been rattling markets all week: the Fed holds short-term rates at 3.63 percent, but the ten-year Treasury yield keeps climbing—now at 4.74 percent. They explore how Treasury Secretary Bessent's bond-buyback gambit, aimed at calming volatility, seems to be having the opposite effect, stirring inflation worries just as the government's debt crosses $40 trillion. With real GDP growth slowing to 1.5 percent and core PCE…
Treasury Buybacks Are Back and Stirring Inflation Worries
Treasury Secretary Bessent's plan to calm the bond market with buybacks is now fueling inflation anxiety. On this episode of Macro Tuesdays, Lucas and Luna unpack the $40 trillion debt milestone, the mechanics of the Treasury's buyback operations, and why a steepening yield curve is making the Fed's job harder. With the ten-year yield at 4.74% and the thirty-year at 5.28%, they explore whether buybacks can actually work or if they risk sending the wrong signal. They also discuss the Fed's 3.63%…
The $40 Trillion Debt and the Fed's New Bind
The U.S. government debt crossed $40 trillion for the first time in August 2026, more than doubling in a decade. This milestone lands at an awkward moment: the Fed is holding rates at 3.63 percent, the ten-year Treasury yield is hovering near 4.74 percent, and Treasury Secretary Bessent is trying to calm markets with buybacks and deficit talk. In this episode, Lucas and Luna unpack what the $40 trillion figure really means, why the market is starting to worry about the Fed's independence, and…
Why Treasury Buybacks Are Back in the Spotlight
In this episode of Macro Tuesdays, Lucas and Luna dig into the Treasury market's quiet but significant turn: after months of the ten-year yield hovering near multi-year highs, the Treasury Department is reportedly considering buying back more than four billion dollars of its own debt. They unpack why buybacks matter, how they differ from quantitative easing, and what they signal about the government's fiscal position as the national debt crosses forty trillion dollars. Lucas explains the…
The Steepening Yield Curve and the Fed's Fiscal Bind
In this episode of Macro Tuesdays, Lucas and Luna dig into why the yield curve is steepening even as the Fed holds rates at 3.63 percent. With the ten-year Treasury yield climbing to 4.65 percent and the two-year at 3.70, the gap between short and long rates is widening — a signal that bond markets are starting to price in slower growth and higher inflation risk. The hosts break down what this steepening means for the economy, why it complicates the Fed's next move, and how the U.S.…
The 2026 Deficit Surge and What It Means
The US federal budget deficit surged in July to its highest level since March 2021, and the fiscal picture is getting tighter just as the Federal Reserve holds rates at 3.63 percent. Lucas and Luna break down the numbers—how the deficit is widening even as the economy grows at a tepid 1.5 percent, why the ten-year Treasury yield is climbing to 4.71 percent, and what this means for the Fed's next move. They discuss the political constraints on spending, the impact on bond markets, and whether…
How the July Deficit Reveals Fiscal Policy's New Bind
Lucas and Luna dig into the July budget deficit spike — the highest since March 2021 — and what it signals for fiscal policy as the Fed holds rates at 3.63 percent. With the ten-year yield climbing to 4.72 and the thirty-year at 5.31, bond markets are starting to ask harder questions about the government's borrowing path. They unpack why deficits matter right now, how the Fed's independence interacts with Treasury supply, and whether the market is starting to push back on fiscal largesse.…
Why the Fed Funds Rate Stays Put at 3.63 Percent
The Federal Reserve has held its benchmark rate at 3.63 percent for months, even as inflation cools and the labor market wobbles. In this episode, Lucas and Luna unpack the paradox: why the Fed isn't moving despite softer CPI and a rising unemployment rate. They dig into the latest data—core PCE still creeping up, jobless claims jumping to 209,000, and real GDP growth slowing to 1.5 percent—and explain what it means for your borrowing costs and savings yields. They also break down the yield…
Why the Yield Curve Is Steepening as the Fed Holds Rates Steady
The ten-year Treasury yield is pushing toward 4.7 percent while the two-year sits near 3.7 percent — that's the steepest curve in years. In this episode, Lucas and Luna dig into what's driving the move: investors betting on Fed patience, a surprisingly resilient labor market, and a government deficit that keeps growing. They break down how the curve steepening changes the outlook for banks, mortgage rates, and the broader economy. Plus, why the market's interpretation of a flat CPI report might…
Why the Fed Is Stuck With a 3.63 Percent Rate
In this episode of Macro Tuesdays, Lucas and Luna dig into a puzzle the market is buzzing about: the federal funds rate has been pinned at 3.63 percent for months, even as inflation cools and the labor market softens. They explore why the Fed isn't cutting, the gap between market expectations and the Fed's own projections, and what the flat rate means for your mortgage, your savings account, and your portfolio. Along the way, they unpack the latest CPI and jobs data, the jump in initial jobless…
The Fed's New Dilemma as CPI Cools but Inflation Expectations Rise
In Episode 154 of Macro Tuesdays, Lucas and Luna unpack a puzzle that has the markets on edge: the July CPI report showed inflation cooling, yet long-term inflation expectations are creeping higher. They explore why the 10-year breakeven rate rose to 2.26 percent even as core CPI eased, and what that means for the Federal Reserve's next move. With real GDP growth slowing to 1.5 percent and the unemployment rate dipping to 4.1 percent, the hosts dig into the tricky balance between supporting…
Why the Ten-Year Yield Is Rising While Inflation Cools
In this episode of Macro Tuesdays, Lucas and Luna dig into a puzzle that's been confusing markets all summer: why is the ten-year Treasury yield climbing even as inflation data cools? With the ten-year yield hovering near 4.7 percent in mid-August 2026, and July CPI coming in at just 0.1 percent monthly, the usual relationship seems broken. They explore the role of AI-driven capital spending, the surge in Treasury supply as the budget deficit hits a five-year high, and the Fed's dilemma as it…
Why Real GDP Growth Slowed to 1.5 Percent
In this episode of Macro Tuesdays with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dig into the latest GDP report showing real growth at just 1.5 percent annualized for Q2 2026, down from 2.1 percent. They explore what's behind the slowdown—weak consumer spending, a cooling labor market, and declining job openings—and what it means for the Fed's next moves. With inflation still above target and the ten-year yield creeping higher, they discuss whether the Fed can cut rates without reigniting price pressures. They…
Why the Ten-Year Yield Is Rising While Inflation Cools
The gap between falling inflation and a rising ten-year Treasury yield has widened to levels not seen in years. In this episode, Lucas and Luna dig into what's driving the divergence—strong real yields, a resilient labor market, and the Fed's cautious stance. They explain why the ten-year yield, now near 4.7 percent, is a market signal that inflation fears have shifted to growth and fiscal concerns. Using recent data—CPI cooling to 332.6, but job openings still high at 7.36 million—they unpack…
Why July Jobs Lost 23000 Jobs and Wages Kept Rising
July's jobs report was a shock: the U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs, the first outright decline in years, while unemployment fell to 4.1 percent and average hourly earnings held steady at 37.6 dollars. On this episode of Macro Tuesdays, Lucas and Luna unpack the paradox of a shrinking labor market with sticky wages, and what it signals for the Fed's next move. With job openings down to 7.36 million and initial claims creeping up to 199,000, the picture is more nuanced than a simple headline. They…
Why the July Jobs Report Shocked the Market
The July 2026 jobs report landed with a thud: a loss of 23,000 nonfarm payrolls, the first negative print in years, while the unemployment rate ticked down to 4.1 percent. Lucas and Luna dig into what this paradox means for the Federal Reserve and the bond market. They break down the ADP private-sector miss of just 44,000 jobs, the widening gap between the payroll survey and the household survey, and why the ten-year Treasury yield fell despite a supposed strong economy. Plus, they explore how…
Why July Jobs Data Shows a Cooling Labor Market
The July jobs report delivered a surprise: the U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs, the first negative print in years. Lucas and Luna unpack what this means for the Federal Reserve's rate path, why wage growth staying at 3.6% while inflation cools is the key tension, and how markets have reacted with the S&P 500 up over 2% for the week. They also look at the trend in job openings, which have fallen to 7.36 million, and what that suggests about the labor market's trajectory. This episode cuts through…
How a Cooling CPI Still Leaves the Fed Boxed In
In this episode of Macro Tuesdays, Lucas and Luna unpack the latest inflation data from June 2026, where the headline CPI dipped to 332.6 but core PCE actually ticked up. They explore why the Fed under Kevin Warsh finds itself in a tough spot: with the 10-year breakeven inflation rate at 2.22% and the unemployment rate falling to 4.2%, the central bank has little room to ease without reigniting price pressures. The conversation dives into the implications for the July jobs report, due out…
Why Job Openings Are Falling While Wages Keep Climbing
In this episode of Macro Tuesdays, Lucas and Luna unpack a peculiar economic puzzle: job openings have slipped to 7.36 million, down sharply from last year's peak, yet average hourly earnings are still grinding higher at 37.60 dollars an hour. They explore what this divergence says about the labor market's true tightness, how the Fed under Kevin Warsh is interpreting this data, and why the bond market's reaction — with the ten-year Treasury yield at 4.62 percent — might be sending a different…
Why Manufacturing Inflation Fears Are Spiking in 2026
A new manufacturing survey shows inflation worries worse than the pandemic era, even as headline CPI cools. Lucas and Luna dig into what's driving this disconnect — from reshoring bottlenecks to freight costs — and what it means for the Fed's next move. They also break down why core PCE keeps climbing while inflation expectations fall, and how the bond market is pricing it all in. If you're wondering whether the Fed can hold rates steady while factories scream inflation, this episode has the…
Why Inflation Expectations Are Falling While Core PCE Rises
On this episode of Macro Tuesdays, Lucas and Luna dig into a puzzle at the heart of the Fed's current dilemma: inflation expectations are easing even as core PCE remains sticky. Using the latest data — ten-year breakevens at 2.28 percent, core PCE up to 130.3, and the Fed funds rate holding at 3.63 percent — they explore why households and markets seem more optimistic than official measures suggest. They discuss the role of falling gas prices, the cooling labor market, and the Fed's credibility…
Why Core Services Inflation Is Still Sticky in Summer 2026
Consumer price inflation has cooled, but the core services part of the CPI basket keeps running hot. In this episode of Macro Tuesdays, Lucas and Luna unpack the latest June CPI print, where core services inflation is still running around 4.2 percent year-over-year, even as the overall CPI fell to 2.6 percent. They drill into the two biggest drivers: shelter costs, which are up 3.9 percent, and the 'supercore' measure—services excluding energy and housing—which is still climbing at a 3.1…
Why June Payrolls Show a Cooling Job Market
In this episode of Macro Tuesdays, Lucas and Luna dive into the latest payroll data and what it signals for the Fed's next move. Nonfarm payrolls rose by just 57,000 in June, the smallest gain in over two years, while the unemployment rate ticked down to 4.2 percent. They unpack the divergence between the strong headline and the weak internals—things like the drop in average hours worked and the rise in part-time employment for economic reasons. The hosts explore why the bond market is paying…
Why GDP Growth Slowed to 1.5% and What It Means for the Fed
Episode 141 of Macro Tuesdays with Fexingo digs into the Q2 2026 GDP print, which came in at an annualized 1.5% — down sharply from 2.1% in Q1. Lucas and Luna explore the implications for the Fed, especially given that core inflation remains sticky at 3.3% and jobless claims just jumped to 197,000 from 188,000. They discuss why the soft-landing narrative is getting harder to sustain, how the yield curve has uninverted but long-term yields keep rising, and what the divided Fed might do next.…
Why Inflation Expectations Are Rising as CPI Falls
In this episode of Macro Tuesdays, Lucas and Luna dive into the growing disconnect between realized inflation and market expectations. The latest CPI print showed a decline to 332.6, but the 10-year breakeven inflation rate has jumped to 2.26 percent, its highest in weeks. With the Fed divided on its next move—some focused on cooling CPI, others wary of tariff impacts and sticky core PCE—Lucas explains what this divergence means for rate cut probabilities and the steepening yield curve. They…
Inflation Expectations Rise As CPI Cools
In June 2026, CPI fell for the first time in months, dropping to 332.6 from 333.98. Yet the bond market's 10-year breakeven inflation rate rose from 2.20 to 2.26. Lucas and Luna break down this puzzling divergence: why actual inflation is cooling while market-implied expectations are heating up. They explore possible drivers like rising oil prices, new tariff threats, and the Fed's tricky communication challenge. Plus, a candid look at how listener support keeps this ad-free macro analysis…
Why 187000 Jobless Claims Are a Problem for the Fed
On this episode of Macro Tuesdays, Lucas and Luna dig into the latest jobs data: initial jobless claims plunged to 187,000 in mid-July, the lowest in over a year. But with the unemployment rate at 4.2 percent and core PCE still rising, the Fed is stuck between a hot labor market and sticky inflation. Lucas explains why this paradox is giving the central bank a headache, especially with GDP growth at 2.1 percent and the 10-year yield at 4.60 percent. They discuss how the divergence between CPI…
Why Inflation Expectations Are Falling While PCE Rises
The 10-year breakeven inflation rate dropped to 2.21%, its lowest in months, even as the Fed's preferred PCE price index rose to 131.5 and core PCE hit 130.1. Lucas and Luna unpack this divergence: why markets are betting on cooling inflation despite sticky readings in the actual data. They explore whether the PCE uptick is transitory or a warning sign, how the labor market's mixed signals—record-low jobless claims but tepid payroll gains—factor into the Fed's calculus, and what the Singapore…
Why the 2-Year Yield Broke Above the Fed's Reserve Rate
This week on Macro Tuesdays, Lucas and Luna unpack a rare moment in bond markets: the 2-year Treasury yield has climbed to 3.80 percent, above the Fed's interest on reserve balances rate of 3.65 percent for the first time since before the pandemic. They explain what this 'yield floor break' signals about market expectations for Fed policy, the surge in real yields to multi-year highs, and the knock-on effect that slammed the Nasdaq down over 3 percent in five days. Plus, a dive into the latest…
China Import Prices Surge to Highest Since 2008
In this episode of Macro Tuesdays, Lucas and Luna explore why the cost of goods imported from China has hit its highest level since 2008, despite a cooling CPI and falling inflation expectations. They discuss how surging import costs from China complicate the Fed's path, especially with jobless claims at 187,000 and the labor market still tight. The hosts examine whether this is a tariff hangover, a supply chain effect, or a sign of structural shifts. They also connect the data to the recent…
Why Jobless Claims Are Falling While Long-Term Yields Rise
In this episode of Macro Tuesdays, Lucas and Luna unpack a puzzling divergence: initial jobless claims just hit 187,000, a level not seen since the late 1960s, while the 10-year Treasury yield surged to 4.68%—up more than 2% in a week. With the Fed holding its policy rate steady at 3.63%, what's driving long-term yields higher? Lucas traces the steepening yield curve to a combination of fiscal deficits, global tightening (Singapore surprised markets with a hawkish move), and tariff-driven…
Why the Fed's Favorite Inflation Gauge Is Still Rising
The CPI may be cooling, but the Fed's preferred inflation metric—the PCE price index—is still edging up. In this episode, Lucas and Luna break down the divergence between CPI and PCE, explain why core PCE rose in May despite flat core CPI, and discuss what this means for the Fed's rate path. They also tie in the surprising plunge in jobless claims to 187,000, the World Cup boost to consumer spending, and the risk that new global tariffs could reignite import price pressures. If you've been…
Decoding Kevin Warsh Three Key Phrases for Fed Policy
This episode of Macro Tuesdays unpacks the surprising drop in initial jobless claims to 187,000 and what it means for the Fed's next move. As inflation cools and the labor market tightens, Fed Governor Kevin Warsh has introduced three key phrases that signal how the central bank is navigating the crosscurrents. Lucas and Luna decode each phrase in the context of the latest CPI and tariff headlines, and discuss why trade policy from the White House adds a new layer of uncertainty. If you've been…
Why Jobless Claims Are Plunging While Hiring Slows
Initial jobless claims fell to 187,000 in mid-July 2026, the lowest level in months, while the unemployment rate dropped to 4.2%. But nonfarm payrolls added just 57,000 jobs in June. Lucas and Luna unpack this labor-market divergence: low layoffs indicate a tight labor market, but sluggish hiring suggests the economy isn't overheating. They discuss what this means for the Fed's rate path, why bond yields are rising despite cooling CPI, and how the flow-versus-stock view of the labor market…
How the Fed Reserve Rate Traps Short-Term Yields
The Fed Funds rate sits at 3.63% but the 2-year Treasury yield is 4.46%. That 83-basis-point gap is unusual and it's trapping short-term rates above where the Fed wants them. Lucas and Luna explain why the interest on reserve balances (IORB) at 3.65% creates a floor under money-market yields, why banks are parking reserves instead of lending, and how this 'reserve trap' is keeping the yield curve inverted longer than expected. With core inflation still sticky at 2.1% annualized and unemployment…
Why Used Car Prices Are Rising Again in Summer 2026
Lucas and Luna dig into the surprising resurgence of used car prices in July 2026. Despite overall CPI cooling for six straight months, the used car and truck component jumped 1.2% in June according to the latest Bureau of Labor Statistics data. They trace the trend to new car production bottlenecks, a shift in consumer preferences away from small crossovers toward full-size SUVs, and the lingering effects of a 2025 hailstorm season that damaged hundreds of thousands of vehicles in the Plains…
What Falling Jobless Claims Say About The Economy
Initial jobless claims dropped to 208,000 in mid-July 2026, the lowest level in months. On Macro Tuesdays, Lucas and Luna dig into what that number actually means — especially with unemployment at 4.2 percent and the Fed holding rates steady. They explore the disconnect between low layoffs and cooling hiring, why the claims data might be misleading, and what it tells us about the labor market's real temperature. Plus, a look at how Kevin Warsh's recent comments are shaping Fed expectations. A…
Why Tariffs on Chinese Goods Are Already Spiking Import Prices
Episode 127 of Macro Tuesdays digs into a surprising data point: import prices from China just hit their highest level since 2008, even though most tariffs aren't due until 2028. Lucas and Luna explore how front-running by importers, supply chain re-routing, and the strong dollar are combining to push up costs now. They also unpack the Fed's latest language from Kevin Warsh, the role of rising breakevens, and what all of this means for inflation expectations heading into Q3 2026. If you're…
Why Import Prices Are Rising Despite Tariff Delays
Episode 126 of Macro Tuesdays with Fexingo. Lucas and Luna dig into the surprising July 2026 import price data: goods from China hit their highest cost since 2008, even as the Trump administration delays generic drug tariffs until 2028. They connect the dots between a weakening dollar, sticky services inflation, and what the bond market's rising breakeven rate tells us about where inflation is really headed. Plus, a look at why the Fed's interest on reserve balances rate—held flat at 3.65%—may…
Why Treasury Yields Are Rising Despite Cooling CPI
CPI is finally falling — down to 332.6 in June, the first meaningful decline in years. Core CPI is essentially flat at 336.1. Yet the ten-year yield is up to 4.63 percent, and the two-year is at 4.37. Lucas and Luna unpack the paradox: if inflation is cooling, why are bond yields still climbing? They trace the answer to the 10-year breakeven inflation rate, which ticked up to 2.25 percent even as actual CPI fell. That spread — between falling CPI and rising inflation expectations — is the bond…
Why the Yield Curve Is Uninverting as the Fed Holds Steady
The yield curve has been inverted for over two years, but something shifted this week: the 2-year and 10-year Treasury spread narrowed to just 27 basis points, the flattest since July 2022. Lucas and Luna unpack what's driving the move — a combination of sticky services inflation, a surprise drop in jobless claims to 208,000, and the Fed holding the effective funds rate at 3.63 percent. They explore whether this is a classic pre-recession signal or something different: a soft-landing curve…
The Hormuz Effect How Oil Chokepoints Reshape Fed Policy
Lucas and Luna dive into how renewed hostilities in the Strait of Hormuz are forcing a rethink of central bank policy, even as wholesale prices fall. With the ECB recalibrating its rate path and China slowing, they explore the tension between falling goods inflation and rising energy-driven uncertainty. The hosts unpack the data: declining wholesale prices vs. surging import costs from China, the Fed stuck at 3.63%, and what a 5.12% long bond yield signals about a world where geopolitics trumps…
Why Import Prices Are Rising Despite Global Disinflation
Import prices surprised to the upside in July 2026, even as wholesale prices fell and China's economy slowed. Lucas and Luna unpack the disconnect: a weaker dollar, rising costs from China, and the impact on the Fed's inflation fight. They explore why import costs are now a wildcard for the disinflation narrative, and what it means for consumer prices ahead. With specific data from the latest JOLTS report and the ten-year breakeven rate, this episode drills into one overlooked number that could…
Why US Consumers Are Spending More on Imported Goods
Lucas and Luna dig into the surprising July 2026 import price data, which shows the cost of goods from China hitting levels not seen since 2008. They explore why import prices are rising despite a cooling domestic economy, what it means for the Fed's inflation fight, and how a weaker dollar is amplifying the effect. With the 10-year breakeven inflation rate ticking up to 2.24 and the Fed holding rates at 3.63, this episode unpacks the paradox of rising import costs in a disinflationary…
Import Prices Surprise in July 2026 | Fexingo Macro
Import prices rose unexpectedly in June 2026, with costs of goods from China hitting their highest level since 2008. Lucas and Luna unpack what this means for the Fed's disinflation narrative—especially as wholesale prices fell 0.3% and CPI shows tentative cooling. They examine the China factor: the world's second-largest economy posted its slowest quarterly growth since 2022, which is paradoxically raising costs for U.S. importers through supply-chain and currency effects. The hosts also…
Why the Fed Is Trapped by Its Own Reserve Rate
The effective federal funds rate is stuck at 3.63 percent, exactly where it has been for months, while the interest on reserve balances sits at 3.65 percent. Lucas and Luna explain why this seemingly technical gap—just two basis points—is actually a sign that the Fed has lost control of short-term rates. They walk through how the IORB mechanism works, why repo markets are signaling excess liquidity, and what this means for the next FOMC meeting. Drawing on the latest data, including flat daily…
Why Import Prices Are Rising Despite Cheaper Oil
The latest import price data shows a surprise gain, driven by rising costs from China hitting their highest level since 2008. Meanwhile, wholesale prices fell sharply due to a drop in gasoline. Lucas and Luna unpack the disconnect: how are import prices rising when oil is falling? They drill into the composition of import prices, the role of Chinese goods, and what the divergence between import and wholesale prices signals for the Fed's next move. With headline CPI declining but core inflation…
Why the Dollar Is Weakening Despite Higher Rates
The dollar has been falling for eight straight weeks even though the Fed is holding rates at 3.63 percent. Lucas and Luna unpack the paradox on this episode of Macro Tuesdays. They trace the culprit to a sudden shift in global reserve demand: central banks from Japan to Saudi Arabia are diversifying away from US assets at a pace not seen since the early 2000s. The hosts drill into two specific data points — the 10-year breakeven inflation rate dipping to 2.22 percent and the 2-year yield…
Why China's Slowdown Matters More Than CPI
Episode 116 of Macro Tuesdays digs into the real economic story of mid-2026: not the encouraging CPI miss, but China's weakest GDP growth since 2022 and the ripple effects on global trade and Fed policy. Lucas and Luna break down why China's 4.2% quarterly GDP reading — its slowest in four years — is flashing a bigger warning than the 3.5% CPI print. They connect the dots to the flat 10-year breakeven, the sudden drop in wholesale prices, and what Hormuz tensions mean for energy costs. If…
Showing the latest 50 episodes. The full archive of 165 is on Apple Podcasts, Spotify and every major podcast app — or via the RSS feed above.